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March 2013

International Diplomacy
commentary
The Risks of an Excess of Caution in Syria
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
Mar 29, 2013
The RAND Blog
Syria is looking more like a collapsed state every day. Nearly a million people have now fled Syria for safety abroad. Meanwhile, the influence of extremist groups, such as the al Nusrah Front, continues to grow as these groups slip into the areas vacated by the Syrian state.
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Global Climate Change
commentary
A Gradually Escalating Carbon Tax Would Allow Businesses and Consumers Time to Prepare
Keith Crane
Mar 29, 2013
Wall Street Journal Online
A conservative, cost-efficient response to climate change involves sending price signals to people and businesses now so that they take steps to reduce emissions, writes Keith Crane.
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Health Care Costs
commentary
Remove Medicare's Straitjacket
Arthur L. Kellermann
Mar 29, 2013
Los Angeles Times
Removing the constraints on Medicare would not only lead to lower prices at the drugstore, hospital and doctor's office, it could spark a new era of healthcare innovation, says Arthur Kellermann.
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Solar Energy
commentary
Why China's Suntech Might Not Be Alone in Heading Toward Bankruptcy
Keith Crane
Mar 29, 2013
The RAND Blog
Demand for photovoltaic solar panels still primarily depends on government subsidies, as in most parts of the world solar power remains more expensive than conventional sources of electricity, says Keith Crane.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
America's Delicate Dance in the Pacific
David A. Shlapak
Mar 28, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Even if Japan and China ease the tensions in their dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyus islands, the United States should gird itself for further uncomfortable contingencies in the coming years, writes David Shlapak.
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Petroleum
commentary
Prices Will Still Be Dictated by World Markets and the Middle East Will Continue to Bedevil Policymakers
Keith Crane
Mar 28, 2013
Wall Street Journal Online
Even if the United States no longer imports oil from the Middle East, the United States will still be vulnerable to oil price shocks driven by developments in the Middle East, writes Keith Crane.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Why Erdogan Wants Peace with the PKK
F. Stephen Larrabee
Mar 27, 2013
Foreign Affairs
With the leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) now apparently ready to try to peacefully resolve differences with Turkey, the prospects that the uprising will come to an end have improved, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
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Politics and Government
commentary
Demonstration Effect
Warren Bass
Mar 25, 2013
Foreign Policy
The most encouraging thing about President Obama's Jerusalem speech may have been the audience applause. Like President Reagan, Obama went soaring over the heads of officials, elites, and pundits, directly to Israel's citizenry, says Warren Bass.
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Gun Violence
commentary
Guns in Homes: A Health Hazard
Arthur L. Kellermann
Mar 25, 2013
New York Daily News
An ample body of evidence indicates that the benefits of keeping a gun for protection are substantially outweighed by the associated risks, writes Art Kellermann.
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Military Force Deployment
commentary
The Invasion of Iraq: A Balance Sheet
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Mar 22, 2013
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
The costly removal of Saddam Hussein won no applause, earned no gratitude, established no reliable ally, and produced no lasting strategic benefit, says Brian Michael Jenkins.
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Preventive Health Care
commentary
Making Heart Disease a Women's Issue
Chloe E. Bird @ChloeBirdPhD
Mar 22, 2013
Ms. Magazine
When it comes to women's health, cancer gets a good deal of the attention; somehow, it hasn’t fully registered that so many of our mothers, sisters, friends and daughters are being affected by another, often silent killer, writes Chloe E. Bird.
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Democracy
blog
New RAND Study Examines Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt
Mar 22, 2013
While much has been written on the electoral strength of Islamists in Egypt, most of the analysis has been done at the national level, ignoring regional divides within the country. A new report identifies the areas where Islamist parties run strongest, and the areas where non-Islamists are most competitive.
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Warfare and Military Operations
commentary
The Deeply Mixed Results of the Iraq War
Ben Connable
Mar 21, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Ten years after the United States and its allies invaded Iraq, it seems appropriate to ask a bottom-line question: Did the U.S. succeed? The U.S. came very close to losing the Iraq war of 2003-2011, writes Ben Connable.
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Military Budgets and Defense Spending
q&a
Grappling with the Sequester: Q&A with Charles Nemfakos
Mar 20, 2013
The RAND Blog
Will any good come out of the Pentagon's sequester-mandated spending cuts? If nothing else, it will drive folks to think the unthinkable, says Charles Nemfakos.
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Nation Building
commentary
Iraq Isn't as Fragile as It Looks
Lowell H. Schwartz
Mar 19, 2013
CNN
Ten years after the Iraq war started, violence persists. Yet despite much pessimism, the new order survives without U.S. assistance. And it is a lot less fragile than it often appears, says Lowell Schwartz.
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Civilian Military Workforce
commentary
A Lesson from Iraq War: How to Outsource War to Private Contractors
Martha Dunigan @MollyDunigan
Mar 19, 2013
Christian Science Monitor
Both to repeat the successes of private military contracting and to avoid the mistakes of contractors in the recent wars, the Department of Defense must consider several points specific to security contractors, writes Molly Dunigan.
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Early Childhood Education
commentary
High-Quality Early Childhood Programs Require High-Quality Teachers
Brian M. Stecher
Mar 18, 2013
The RAND Blog
High-quality early childhood interventions can improve academic achievement, reduce crime and delinquency, and enhance future labor market success. But the operative word is "high-quality." And for early childhood programs to be high-quality, they must have qualified instructors.
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Threat Assessment
blog
RAND Contributes to Foreign Policy Survey on the Future of Global Conflict
Mar 18, 2013
For its recent feature “The Future of War,” Foreign Policy magazine surveyed 71 leading authorities on today’s global conflicts – including many current and former analysts from the RAND Corporation – and used their responses to rank future security threats.
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Satellites
commentary
Satellite Collision Is a Reminder of Challenges Posed by Space Debris
Dave Baiocchi @DaveBaiocchi, William Welser IV @WilliamWelserIV
Mar 15, 2013
The RAND Blog
This isn't going to be an easy problem to solve because, like spilled petroleum products, debris can spend years lurking in an environment that is foreign to most people's daily lives, write Dave Baiocchi and William Welser.
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Military Tactics
commentary
Unlearning the Lessons of Iraq
Christopher S. Chivvis @CChivvis
Mar 14, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
Trepidation about boots-on-the-ground engagement has unnecessarily forestalled even small-scale efforts to repair Libya's fractured security environment....Meanwhile, in Syria, the over-learned lessons of Iraq are taking an even more serious toll, writes Christopher Chivvis.
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
Learning Curve
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Mar 14, 2013
Foreign Policy
The post-Vietnam “never again” attitude led to a severe atrophy of the U.S. military's counterinsurgency skills and it is quite possible that the U.S. military will go through a similar phase of unlearning over the next several years, writes James Dobbins.
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End of Life Care
blog
When CPR Is the Wrong Call: Mistaking Medical Treatment for Care
Mar 14, 2013
If a medical treatment worked only a fraction of the time and resulted in bad outcomes more often than not, practitioners would not make this treatment the default approach. Yet that is exactly what has happened when it comes to CPR for individuals 85 years and older who suffer cardiac arrest in a community setting.
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European Union
commentary
Innovating Out of a Crisis: How Research and Innovation Are Key to Europe's Future
Jonathan Grant, Helen Rebecca Schindler
Mar 13, 2013
The RAND Blog
Are research and innovation the way out of Europe's current woes? And is the way to administer and fund research and innovation working? Jonathan Grant and Rebecca Schindler suggest more could be done.
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Diet and Eating Habits
commentary
Ruling Can Lead to Tougher New York Soda Ban
Deborah Cohen @DrDebCohen
Mar 13, 2013
Bloomberg View
New York should see the judge's ruling as an opportunity to revise the law to close the loopholes, including the Big Gulp exemption, and develop regulations in line with the scientific consensus that even 16 ounces is way too much, writes Deborah Cohen.
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Military Budgets and Defense Spending
commentary
China's Defense Spending Mystery
Scott Warren Harold @ScottWHarold
Mar 13, 2013
CNN
China's decision to expand defense spending also carries clues about the Party's need to keep the military happy, the new leadership's confidence and new President Xi Jinping's ability to put his own stamp on policy from the start, writes Scott Harold.
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Public Health Preparedness
commentary
Tuberculosis Outbreak in LA Reminds Us of Importance of 'Bread and Butter' Public Health Capabilities
Shoshana R. Shelton
Mar 12, 2013
The RAND Blog
In this fiscally uncertain climate, we should continue to leverage the dual-use benefit of bioterrorism investments by building and maintaining those routine (but essential) public health capabilities that can also be used in response to a variety of public health emergencies.
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Labor Markets
commentary
The SSDI Program's Impact on Human Capital
Nicole Maestas, Kathleen Mullen @KathleenJMullen
Mar 8, 2013
The RAND Blog
The combined effects of having potentially employable individuals receive SSDI benefits, and the loss of skills among those who are denied benefits, are significant, write Nicole Maestas and Kathleen Mullen.
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Surface Transportation
commentary
Does U.S. Gas Tax Still Make Sense?
Liisa Ecola
Mar 8, 2013
The Orange County Register
It's time to consider changing the country's transportation funding scheme from one based on gallons purchased to one based on vehicle miles actually traveled, writes Liisa Ecola.
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Democracy
commentary
Iran's Elections to End All Elections
Alireza Nader @AlirezaNader
Mar 7, 2013
U.S. News & World Report
The June election will not be about mobilizing the Iranian public. It is instead the culmination of a years-long evolution in Iranian politics: the transformation of the Islamic Republic from a mildly representative theocracy into a Revolutionary Guards-controlled kleptocracy, writes Alireza Nader.
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Military Families
commentary
A National Strategy for Supporting Military Caregivers
Terri Tanielian @TerriTanielian, Rajeev Ramchand @RRamchand
Mar 7, 2013
The RAND Blog
The act of caring for a veteran takes a physical, mental, and economic toll on caregivers and their families. Giving caregivers the skills and resources they need to cope and thrive should be as much a priority as giving veterans medical care.
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Economic Policy
commentary
Tax the Nonprofits
Charles Wolf, Jr.
Mar 6, 2013
The Weekly Standard
Charles Wolf asks: Can the NPO sector contribute to easing the U.S. fiscal imbalance, while helping rather than hindering the dynamic free enterprise system, and retaining societal benefits provided by nonprofits?
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Peacekeeping and Stability Operations
commentary
What Went Wrong in Afghanistan? Allowing a Sanctuary in Pakistan
Seth G. Jones @SethGJones
Mar 5, 2013
Foreign Policy
Ten years after the United States helped overthrow the Taliban regime, it is remarkable that successive U.S. administrations have refused to target the Taliban safe haven in Baluchistan, writes Seth Jones.
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Cybercrime
commentary
What Is an Act of Cyberwar? It's a Decision, Not a Conclusion
Martin C. Libicki
Mar 4, 2013
NYTimes.com
Perhaps making war can persuade the attacker to stop. Yet, war also risks further disruption, great cost, as well as possible destruction and death—especially if matters escalate beyond cyberspace, writes Martin Libicki.
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Urban Planning
blog
RAND Is Helping Santa Monica Measure the City's Overall Well-Being
Mar 1, 2013
The RAND Corporation is helping its hometown of Santa Monica, Calif., become the first city in America to use a measurement of overall well-being to drive public policy.
Read More »

March 2013

The Risks of an Excess of Caution in Syria

A Gradually Escalating Carbon Tax Would Allow Businesses and Consumers Time to Prepare

Remove Medicare's Straitjacket

Why China's Suntech Might Not Be Alone in Heading Toward Bankruptcy

America's Delicate Dance in the Pacific

Prices Will Still Be Dictated by World Markets and the Middle East Will Continue to Bedevil Policymakers

Why Erdogan Wants Peace with the PKK

Demonstration Effect

Guns in Homes: A Health Hazard

The Invasion of Iraq: A Balance Sheet

Making Heart Disease a Women's Issue

New RAND Study Examines Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt

The Deeply Mixed Results of the Iraq War

Grappling with the Sequester: Q&A with Charles Nemfakos

Iraq Isn't as Fragile as It Looks

A Lesson from Iraq War: How to Outsource War to Private Contractors

High-Quality Early Childhood Programs Require High-Quality Teachers

RAND Contributes to Foreign Policy Survey on the Future of Global Conflict

Satellite Collision Is a Reminder of Challenges Posed by Space Debris

Unlearning the Lessons of Iraq

Learning Curve

When CPR Is the Wrong Call: Mistaking Medical Treatment for Care

Innovating Out of a Crisis: How Research and Innovation Are Key to Europe's Future

Ruling Can Lead to Tougher New York Soda Ban

China's Defense Spending Mystery

Tuberculosis Outbreak in LA Reminds Us of Importance of 'Bread and Butter' Public Health Capabilities

The SSDI Program's Impact on Human Capital

Does U.S. Gas Tax Still Make Sense?

Iran's Elections to End All Elections

A National Strategy for Supporting Military Caregivers

Tax the Nonprofits

What Went Wrong in Afghanistan? Allowing a Sanctuary in Pakistan

What Is an Act of Cyberwar? It's a Decision, Not a Conclusion

RAND Is Helping Santa Monica Measure the City's Overall Well-Being

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