2017

Terrorism Threat Assessment

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Terrorism Before and During the War on Terror: A Look at the Numbers
While terror-related headlines tend to imply the worst, the truth is much more prosaic. Terrorism since 9/11 is down—and dramatically so—in countries not suffering from civil wars and insurgencies.
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Dec 12, 2017
War on the Rocks
Sean M. Zeigler, Meagan L. Smith
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The Burdens of Brexit
The economic consequences of Brexit are likely to be negative across a wide range of scenarios, including the most likely outcomes that the UK now faces. If the UK leaves the EU with no trade deal it could lose 4.9 percent of GDP, or $140 billion, after 10 years.
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Dec 12, 2017
Newsweek
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries, Marco Hafner
Military Strategy

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Xi's Consolidation of Power at the 19th Party Congress: Implications for PLA Aerospace Forces
Xi Jinping has emerged from the 19th Party Congress stronger than at least his past two predecessors. He solidified his grip on power and revealed significant changes to the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People's Liberation Army.
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Dec 11, 2017
Jamestown Foundation's China Brief
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase
Diet and Eating Habits

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Fixing America's Food Deserts Alone Won't Fix Our Terrible Diets
It's clearly hard to make healthy food choices if you can't get to a store that offers them. But what matters most is what you put in your cart once you get there.
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Dec 11, 2017
Los Angeles Times
Christine Anne Vaughan, Tamara Dubowitz @TamaraDubowitz
Border and Port Security

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The Big Border Security Question
What does a secure U.S.-Mexico border look like? And what kind of security measures are needed? Despite investing billions of dollars since 9/11, it's still a struggle to measure how effective U.S. border security operations are.
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Dec 9, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Blas Nunez-Neto
International Diplomacy

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Kremlin Untruths Boomerang
The main sources of strain in Moscow's ties with the West are actions, such as Russia's aggression in Ukraine. But untruths add fuel to the fire and can provoke stronger Western reactions and impede the search for solutions.
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Dec 4, 2017
RealClearWorld
William Courtney @courtneywmh
Domestic Terrorism

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The Origins of America's Jihadists
American jihadists are made in the United States, not imported. Homegrown terrorists have accounted for most of the jihadist activity in the U.S. since 9/11, with most of those who carried out or plotted terrorist attacks either born in the U.S. or arriving as children.
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Dec 4, 2017
The Hill
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Cybercrime

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The WannaCry Cyber Attack Could Be the First of Many If the NHS Takes No Action
In the UK, the National Health Service (NHS) was one of the organizations most severely affected by the WannaCry ransomware. The NHS and other public sector organizations need to improve their cybersecurity processes and quickly before a more severe cyber attack takes place.
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Dec 1, 2017
The BMJ
Erik Silfversten
Counterinsurgency

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Mali Is France's Afghanistan, but with a Difference
At first glance the comparison between the French military operations in Mali and America’s involvement in Afghanistan is compelling, and in some important ways, accurate. It also presents some fundamental differences that give reason for optimism in France.
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Dec 1, 2017
War on the Rocks
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard, Michael Shurkin
Data Science

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Blockchain: Should We Believe the Hype?
Industry, governments and academics are all speculating on the ways in which blockchain could revolutionize everything from finance to the music industry. Now is the time for policymakers and industry to take note and find out what blockchain could offer.
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Nov 30, 2017
Prospect Magazine
Salil Gunashekar, Advait Deshpande, et al.
Missile Defense

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Is Iron Dome a Poisoned Chalice? Strategic Risks from Tactical Success
While Iron Dome's past success in defending Israel makes it a tempting solution to future challenges, it does have shortcomings. This becomes even more serious when considering using the system in Korea, where the threat posed is substantially greater, and the targeted terrain substantially harder to defend.
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Nov 29, 2017
The Strategy Bridge
Elizabeth M. Bartels @elliebartels
Terrorism Threat Assessment

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All for One and One for All: Toward a Coordinated EU Approach on Returnees
To combat the threat posed by returning fighters, EU intelligence and police agencies will need to coordinate to find potential terrorists before they are able to conduct attacks in Europe. The return of dangerous foreign fighters to European soil should be motivation enough for an overarching review of each country’s vulnerabilities.
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Nov 28, 2017
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Colin P. Clarke
The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

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Is the Philippines the Next Caliphate?
The Philippines is a long way from the Islamic State's birthplace in the Middle East. But the jihadis have already seized and held a city there for three months. Even if the Philippines doesn't become a major node in the Islamic State's network, it will likely remain fertile ground for supporting the group and its violent agenda.
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Nov 28, 2017
Foreign Policy
Patrick B. Johnston, Colin P. Clarke
Autonomous Vehicles

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Driverless Cars: The Race Is On for Policy to Catch Up
Driverless cars could be tested on Britain’s roads by 2021. While this is likely to be great news to many, the race is now on for policymaking to catch up. Why? Because driverless cars could substantially change more than just the way people travel.
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Nov 27, 2017
The Huffington Post
Charlene Rohr
commentary
Environmental Impact Bonds May Not Bear Fruit for Green Investors
Investors may be willing to accept a lower return for socially responsible investments. But environmental impact bonds may not be the best way to leverage these investment possibilities.
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Nov 26, 2017
Zilient
Aaron Strong @resourceecon, Benjamin Lee Preston @bl_preston