June 2017

Counterterrorism
commentary
Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 19, 2017
Newsweek
Terrorism has escalated horizontally, not vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks. The trick will be to predict and prevent new plots.
Read More »
Education Policy
commentary
How to Solve a Problem Like Missing Data
Alex Sutherland, Catherine L. Saunders
Jun 16, 2017
Statistics Views
Missing data is a challenge for statisticians, policymakers, and analysts, particularly when a robust evidence base is needed. How can this problem be addressed?
Read More »
Syria
commentary
When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 16, 2017
Defense One
The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.
Read More »
Taiwan
commentary
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review in Context
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman, Michael S. Chase, Logan Ma
Jun 14, 2017
Global Taiwan Brief
Taiwan's 2017 Quadrennial Defense Review is consistent with past reviews on defense strategy, reform of the military service system, and defense budget constraints. It also emphasizes the importance to President Tsai of Taiwan's domestic defense industry and shows uncertainty about U.S. Asia policy.
Read More »
International Diplomacy
commentary
U.S. Interests and World Community
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr
Jun 14, 2017
The Cipher Brief
Evidence shows that many countries consider themselves part of an emerging global community. This represents America's most potent competitive advantage. U.S. strategy is stronger when it works to reflect and build such a community.
Read More »
Japan
commentary
Japan's Mistaken South Sudan Withdrawal
Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
The Diplomat
Being a proactive contributor to peace involves risk if a country is serious about gaining real-world experience. Pulling out of South Sudan deprives Japan's Self-Defense Force of crucial operational experience and sends a confusing message to the United States and the international community.
Read More »
North Korea
blog
Conversations at RAND: Bruce W. Bennett on Security Tensions in Northeast Asia
Jun 8, 2017
The increasing tempo of developments in North Korea is of growing concern not only to South Korea but also to the U.S., Japan, and even China. At a RAND event, senior researcher Bruce Bennett discussed how complex the situation is and what options the U.S. has going forward.
Read More »
North Korea
commentary
End the Korean War, Finally
James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey W. Hornung
Jun 8, 2017
New York Times
Sixty-four years ago, the Korean War was suspended by a cease-fire. A peace treaty was never signed. Standing ready to formally end this old war may be the key to dismantling North Korea's nuclear program without starting a new one.
Read More »
Bioterrorism
commentary
A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a Second Look
Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein
Jun 7, 2017
The Hill
President Trump's proposed budget would close a laboratory dedicated to countering bioterrorism and providing the science behind bioterrorism response and recovery. Policymakers should assess whether the lab's capabilities are worth the price when weighed against the potential cost of a bioterror attack.
Read More »
Information Operations
commentary
NATO: Prepared for Countering Disinformation Operations in the Baltic States?
Marta Kepe @martakepe
Jun 7, 2017
European Geostrategy
NATO alliance countries deploying to the Baltics should prepare to deal with increasing levels of disinformation. An open and robust communication strategy could be crucial in tackling a sophisticated Russian disinformation campaign aimed at disrupting support for these deployments.
Read More »
International Diplomacy
commentary
Time for Quiet Diplomacy, Not Taking Sides
Dalia Dassa Kaye, Jeffrey Martini
Jun 7, 2017
The National Interest
Disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council are inevitable given differing threat perceptions and political interests, but there is no reason for the U.S. to pursue policies that aggravate the differences and risk fueling greater instability. Instead, Washington could assure both sides that it will support any agreement they reach.
Read More »
Violence
commentary
Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 7, 2017
Fortune
The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.
Read More »
Counterterrorism
commentary
London Bridge Attack: The Latest Example of 'Pure Terror'
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jun 5, 2017
The Hill
Terrorists can attack anything, anywhere, any time. Preventing all pure terrorism is impossible, but seeking ways to divert vulnerable people from the terror path as Prime Minister May has discussed is a worthy step in that direction.
Read More »
Counterterrorism
commentary
London and the Mainstreaming of Vehicular Terrorism
Colin P. Clarke, Louis Klarevas
Jun 5, 2017
The Atlantic
The terrorist attack that began when a van mowed down pedestrians on London Bridge is a reminder that vehicular terrorism has become mainstream. How can authorities safeguard against such low-tech attacks?
Read More »
The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)
commentary
Developing a Comprehensive Strategy for Countering the Islamic State
Natasha Lander, Kimberly Jackson
Jun 5, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Despite substantial policy and military focus, U.S. attempts to stop the Islamic State group have met with only varying degrees of success. A patient, long-term U.S. investment in governance—including a renewed commitment to addressing the root causes of instability in the Middle East—is needed in Iraq and Syria.
Read More »