January 2018

commentary

Why Political Risks May Dampen World Economies in 2018

The world economy has reached its strongest point since the global financial crisis a decade ago. But rising political risks may cloud prospects in 2018 and perhaps beyond.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz, William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

South Korea Picking the Wrong Fight

Washington may need to encourage Seoul to find ways to cooperate with Tokyo in confronting threats from the region's revisionist actors, rather than picking fights with Japan.

Scott W. Harold, Jeffrey W. Hornung

commentary

The Chairman the Pentagon Needs

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford says that to fight and win 21st century wars, the department should find a way to globally integrate below the secretary of defense. To do so, the chairman's role would have to expand to allow him to advise the secretary on the allocation and transfer of forces for transregional, multi-functional, and multi-domain operations.

Paula G. Thornhill, Mara E. Karlin

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Book Review: 'Eye Corps: Coming of Age at the DMZ'

In reviewing Jack Walker's book about his coming of age in Vietnam, Dan Grunfeld says the story is “powerful, thoughtful and engaging. ... The hard and expensive lessons of Walker's youth led to a big-hearted life, full of wisdom and generosity that touched so many.”

Dan Grunfeld

blog

Mert Davies: All-Star Pioneer of the Cosmos

Merton Davies spent his early years using satellite imagery to spy on terrestrial targets. His work led to the first successful reconnaissance satellite, Corona. Later, he used deep-space photographs to map the planets in our solar system.

commentary

Meet France's War Philosophers

Gen. Vincent Desportes and Col. Michel Goya draw on careers focused on the study and practice of war and share a grimmer and more Hobbesian vision than what one normally meets in French public debates. This makes them appealing guides to the dark world in which the French now find themselves.

Michael Shurkin

commentary

How the U.S. Can Help Resolve the Rohingya Crisis

By accepting responsibility for reintegrating the Rohingya refugees, Myanmar has provided an opening to prevent an epic tragedy. Will the United States and the international community take advantage of it?

Jonah Blank, Shelly Culbertson @SC_Culbertson

commentary

China's Endgame: The Path Towards Global Leadership

The coming years are likely to see a deepening contest between the U.S. and China in the diplomatic, economic, cyber, and information domains, even as the risks of major war remain low. In its 19th CCP Congress report, Beijing articulated for the first time an ambition to contend for global leadership.

Timothy R. Heath

commentary

Economic Multilateralism and Regionalism

The trend toward economic multilateralism and regionalism is accelerating. Japan finalized a free-trade agreement with the EU that will encompass some 600 million people and 30 percent of GWP. The U.S. has benefited from bilateral agreements, but would do well to revisit its posture toward multilateral and regional currents.

Ali Wyne

commentary

Where Is Assad Getting His Fighters from? (It's Not Just Lebanon and Iraq)

The Assad regime's defense against insurgents in Syria's ongoing civil war is being provided by forces imported from Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as Lebanon and Iraq. Most of these fighters are being trained and equipped by Iran. Could this network of foreign fighters help Iran establish a greater presence beyond the Middle East?

Colin P. Clarke, Phillip Smyth

commentary

China's Reluctance on Sanctions Enforcement in North Korea

It's fair to question whether Beijing intends to fully enforce sanctions against the Kim Jong Un regime because such actions tend to undermine China's approach in North Korea. Beijing likely seeks to prevent the collapse of the North Korean regime to ensure that neither a spillover of refugees nor a reunified pro-U.S. Korea emerges on its doorstep.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Autonomous Vehicles: Terrorist Threat or Security Opportunity?

Terrorist groups that track developments in technology could be considering using self-driving cars in place of suicide bombers or for ramming attacks. But autonomous vehicle capabilities offer a range of potential benefits to law enforcement and security operations, too.

James Black

essay

High-Quality Early Childhood Programs Can Change Lives

The most comprehensive look to date at the benefits of early childhood education found that 102 of 115 programs improved at least one outcome for children beyond a statistical doubt. And the economic and social benefits continue to pay dividends, sometimes well into adulthood.

commentary

Jerusalem Embassy Move Sparks Turkey-Israel War of Words

President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital has exacerbated tensions between Turkey and Israel. Economic interests had provided incentives for thawing relations in June 2016, but separating economic interests from political differences is harder today given the mistrust between Ankara and Jerusalem.

Shira Efron