Birds silhouetted over the Lincoln Memorial, the Washington Monument and the U.S. Capitol at sunrise in Washington, D.C., November 8, 2016

commentary

(The National Interest)

April 13, 2018

Political Warfare Is Back with a Vengeance

Birds silhouetted over the Lincoln Memorial, the Washington Monument and the U.S. Capitol at sunrise in Washington, D.C., November 8, 2016

Photo by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

by Raphael S. Cohen and Linda Robinson

Perhaps one of the most important yet least defined leitmotifs of the Trump administration's approach to national security is that of competition. The National Defense Strategy, released earlier this year, argues (PDF) that “the central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition.” The concept pervades (PDF) the National Security Strategy released in December with dozens of references throughout the document. President Donald Trump even introduced the new strategy saying, "Whether we like it or not, we are engaged in a new era of competition.” Despite the ubiquitous rhetoric, the United States still struggles to internalize what this means in practice. For much of the national-security apparatus, the “new era of competition” means a renewed focused on a high-end conflict with near peer adversaries, when it, in fact, reflects a deeper strategic reality. The United States' principal adversaries are actually fighting—and gaining ground—by employing a host of tactics short of all-out war. This form of warfare, once called political warfare, is back with a vengeance, empowered by new tools and techniques. The United States has not sufficiently grappled with this form of orchestrated challenge across the political, economic and informational realms. The United States could benefit from relearning how to fight and win in this domain.

While war has long been viewed as a competition between adversaries, peace has been defined by absence of such conflict. The new U.S. national-security strategy and the defense strategy's choice to also characterize periods of non-war also as periods of competition, therefore, makes a subtle, but important point—namely, that there no longer exists true periods of peace. Instead, we have entered an era of continuous conflict, varied in intensity but always present. The language of competition adopted in the current strategies harkens back to an earlier period in American history and the writings of famed American diplomat George Kennan. Writing about the last period of great-power competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, Kennan believed that the line between war and peace had blurred, and states were competing over security in many realms beyond open conflict. He coined a new term to describe the phenomenon: political warfare.

In a May 4, 1948, policy memorandum, Kennan—then head of the State Department's policy planning staff—argued (PDF) that “in broadest definition, political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives.” In Kennan's view, political warfare spanned a range of overt and covert activities, across all elements of national power diplomatic, informational, military and economic—to coerce an adversary and achieve contested ends below the threshold of conventional conflict.

Political warfare is the preferred form of warfare by both state and non-state actors today. While Russia's unique brand of political warfare, especially its efforts to meddle in dozens of foreign elections, attracts the most public attention today, all five of the United States' principal adversaries—Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups like the Islamic State—employ political warfare to varying degrees. Russia employs insignia-less “little green men,” private military companies, and local militias to annex Crimea and wage war in Eastern Ukraine. China uses “civilian” fishing vessels to assert its claims in the South China Sea. Iran employs its shadowy Quds Force, the covert arm, to control a network of proxies throughout Iraq, Syria and the Middle East. Using such mechanisms of political warfare, these actors can advance their territorial interests without provoking a full-fledged military response by the United States and its allies.

Modern political warfare, however, extends beyond proxy and covert uses of force. Varying forms of economic pressure—bribes, blockades, or highly conditioned aid packages—are long-standing tools of statecraft that are now used for political warfare. The information arena is an increasingly important battleground. Thanks to relatively low barriers to entry to social media, even non-state actors—like the Islamic State—can wage sophisticated information campaigns to recruit and propagandize. The Islamic State's ability to radicalize and inspire individuals to launch attacks in the United States and Europe poses one of the most vexing counterterrorism challenges today. Both state and non-state actors continually innovate in search of means of wreaking havoc far from their home bases, without firing a shot. As the intelligence community's unclassified assessment of Russian interference in the 2016 American elections reveals, these methods succeed by exploiting social and political cleavages in the target populations, and can achieve intended effects through obfuscation and confusion as much as through persuasion.…

The remainder of this commentary is available on nationalinterest.org.


A former active-duty Army officer, Raphael S. Cohen is a political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and an adjunct professor of Security Studies. Linda Robinson is a senior international and defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and author of multiple books on special operations and irregular warfare. They are authors of the recently released report Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses from which this essay has been partially adapted.

This commentary originally appeared on The National Interest on April 12, 2018. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.