January 2019

commentary

Questioning the Presumption of a U.S.-China Power Transition

The United States occupies the central role in a world order that, while under growing duress, remains a central organizing framework in world affairs. There are many trajectories along which U.S.-China relations might evolve if China aims to displace the United States for global pre-eminence.

Ali Wyne

commentary

Confusion Over the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria

Washington's strategy in Syria has been to impose costs on the Syrian government by diplomatic ostracism and economic sanctions. This punitive approach is morally satisfying and politically expedient, but as a practical matter it just helps perpetuate the conflict and sustain Assad's dependency on Iran.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

commentary

In Venezuela, a Potential U.S.-Russian Crisis?

In December, two supersonic nuclear-capable Russian bombers visited Venezuela, the third such excursion for the warplanes since 2008. Might Moscow intend to pose a threat, perhaps even nuclear, to the Western Hemisphere? If so, how could Washington respond?

William Courtney @courtneywmh

commentary

Withdrawing from Syria Leaves a Vacuum That Iran Will Fill

President Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Syria may be unintentionally signaling that the United States is unwilling to compete in critical geopolitical hotspots. Such a message could embolden powerful states—including Iran—to expand their presence.

Colin P. Clarke, Ariane M. Tabatabai

commentary

Book Review: 'The Heart of War—Misadventures in the Pentagon' by Kathleen McInnis

Both Washington insiders and the general public may be inspired by Kathleen McCinnis's The Heart of War. The novel prompts readers to think more realistically about the Pentagon and its role in policymaking.

Jonathan P. Wong @jonpwong

commentary

What Border Walls Can and Cannot Accomplish

States have been building walls since ancient times. Some were arguably quite successful, others less so. At the core of prudent policy lies a basic question: What can walls realistically accomplish?

Raphael S. Cohen

commentary

The End of the End of History?

The Trump administration has taken steps that represent a significant retreat from the norm-based, world order that the United States has championed since 1945. If this shift continues, what might be the impact?

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins

commentary

Is a Sustainable Peace Possible in the Taiwan Strait?

Between now and the next Taiwanese presidential election in 2020, the prospects of forging a sustainable peace between Taiwan and China are exceptionally low. Both Chinese President Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai are dug into their respective positions.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Economic Officers for the Future

Economic officers must be, first of all, accomplished political officers. They should also have all the reporting, public speaking, and representational skills of any political or public diplomacy officer, coupled with a strong understanding of economic issues.

Charles P. Ries @charles_ries

essay

Pardee RAND Reimagines the Future of Public Policy Problem Solving

The Pardee RAND Graduate School is taking a new approach to public policy education. Three new streams of study and action will better align with today's policy needs. Faculty and students will shift the focus from coming up with solutions to actually implementing them.

Susan L. Marquis @susanlmarquis

blog

Science Met Art in Early Data Visualization at RAND

Ivan Finkle, a computer scientist at RAND from 1957 to 1968, used a plotter printer to make Lissajous figures. He fed equations into the computer to give the coordinates of each point. The printer photographed the result and compiled the lines into artful shapes.

essay

Faith-Based Organizations Promote Well-Being in Underserved Communities

Kathryn Derose, a senior policy researcher at RAND and an Episcopal deacon, works with Latino and African-American churches to address health issues in their communities. Her research has shown the power of the pulpit to fight health disparities, counter stigma, and encourage healthy living.

blog

Data Breaches, Marijuana, Turkey: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on consumer reactions to data breaches, understanding teen marijuana use after legalization, why the United States can't rely on Turkey to defeat ISIS, and more.

commentary

The United States Can't Rely on Turkey to Defeat ISIS

Relying on Turkey to shoulder the burden of countering the Islamic State will provide the terrorist group with an opportunity to revive itself at a critical stage in the fight. Turkey's main focus is on the Kurds and Erdogan's opposition. Eradicating the Islamic State is a secondary priority that has often been ignored.

Colin P. Clarke, Ahmet S. Yayla