January 2020

Wargaming
commentary
Book Review: 'A Game of Birds and Wolves' by Simon Parkin
Stacie L. Pettyjohn @StaciePettyjohn
Jan 30, 2020
Science
In A Game of Birds and Wolves, journalist Simon Parkin reports on a long overlooked piece of World War II's Battle of the Atlantic. Captain Gilbert Roberts enlisted the Women's Royal Naval Service to build and run a game modeling a two-sided tactical fight between British escorts and German U-boats.
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Education Reform
blog
Community Schools, Brexit, Coronavirus: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 31, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the promise of community schools, the costs of uncertainty after Brexit, the coronavirus, and more.
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Sleep
commentary
Teens Are Driven to Stay Up Late, but Why?
Wendy M. Troxel @wendytroxel
Jan 30, 2020
Thrive Global
That adolescents have a biologically driven delay in their sleep-wake schedules is uncontested. In fact, this is observed across cultures, including those with limited access to technology. But why this occurs is a tougher nut to crack. There are many issues pertaining to human biology that remain a mystery even to scientists and physicians.
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Economic Development
commentary
Economic Gain Is Possible for All Involved If Infrastructure Is Improved in Countries Encompassed by the China BRI
Hui Lu
Jan 30, 2020
The RAND Blog
China's true motivations for its Belt and Road Initiative may still be unclear. But the West could consider the initiative's potential to deliver sustained economic, social, and environmental benefits for all, and find ways to support infrastructure improvements in the countries involved.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Today's Arctic Diplomacy Can't Handle Tomorrow's Problems
Abbie Tingstad
Jan 29, 2020
Defense One
The international structures that have helped address many Arctic problems through negotiation and cooperation are insufficient for the military and security challenges brought on by climate change. A new forum is needed to address military and security issues in the region.
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China
commentary
The Real U.S.-China Competition: Theories of Influence
Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr, Ali Wyne
Jan 29, 2020
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
Strategic competition between the United States and China has come to dominate U.S. foreign policy debates. That competition is multifaceted, but it may turn on a basic question: Which country has a more sustainable concept of national influence?
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Water Resources Management
commentary
More Than Stormwater: How Green Infrastructure Offers Multiple Benefits for Los Angeles Communities
Joan Chang, Kristin Warren, Jonathan Lamb, Pau Alonso García-Bode
Jan 29, 2020
The RAND Blog
California faces water supply shortages, which are worsened by climate change. Applying a systems framework is essential to addressing complex problems for the sustainability of water resources.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
commentary
Is Coronavirus Another SARS?
Jennifer Bouey @BoueyHuang
Jan 28, 2020
The World Post
In 2002, the SARS pandemic infected more than 8,000 people and killed 774. How is the coronavirus outbreak similar? And how is it different?
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Substance Abuse
commentary
Policies That Punish Pregnant Women for Substance Use Don't Help Mother or Baby
Laura J. Faherty @LauraFahertyMD
Jan 28, 2020
Tennessee Justice Center
About half of all U.S. states now have policies that criminalize substance use during pregnancy, consider it grounds for civil commitment, or consider it child abuse or neglect. But research suggests that punitive policies aren't beneficial for infants or their mothers.
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Education Reform
commentary
What LAUSD Can Learn from the New York City Community Schools Initiative
William R. Johnston
Jan 28, 2020
Los Angeles Times
A study of New York City's community schools found improved academic performance, higher attendance, and other positive outcomes for disadvantaged students. This model could benefit similar efforts underway in Los Angeles, where 80 percent of students live in poverty.
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Security Cooperation
commentary
Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020
Naoko Aoki
Jan 27, 2020
East Asia Forum
North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.
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Wildfires
blog
Australia's Fires, Artificial Intelligence, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 24, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on Australia's devastating fires, how artificial intelligence could manipulate the masses, the fentanyl crisis, and more.
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Low-Intensity Conflict
commentary
The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory
Raphael S. Cohen
Jan 22, 2020
War on the Rocks
Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.
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Information Operations
commentary
Artificial Intelligence and the Manufacturing of Reality
Christopher Paul, Marek N. Posard @mnposard
Jan 20, 2020
Strategy Bridge
Humans carry flaws in deciding what is or is not real. The internet and other technologies have made it easier to weaponize and exploit these flaws. And artificial intelligence will likely be used to exploit these weaknesses at an unprecedented scale, speed, and level of effectiveness.
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Wildfires
commentary
Australia's Fires: Respond Now, but Also Measure Toll on People for the Future
Melissa L. Finucane @MelissaFinucane
Jan 20, 2020
The RAND Blog
As an Australian, Melissa Finucane has watched with anguish as massive bushfires devastated wide swaths of her home country. As a researcher who studies community resilience, she can't help but think of how much blood, sweat, tears, and money will be required to recover.
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China
commentary
How Washington Could Make Beijing Listen on Xinjiang
Mollie Saltskog, Colin P. Clarke @ColinPClarke
Jan 17, 2020
Foreign Affairs
In autonomous Xinjiang, at least one million ethnic Uighurs, Kazakhs, and other Muslim minorities have been incarcerated by the Chinese government. What can the United States and its allies do to help defuse this humanitarian crisis?
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Turkey
blog
U.S.-Turkish Relations, Airports, Opioids: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 17, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on the future of the U.S.-Turkish partnership, helping America's commercial airports meet rising demand, the opioid crisis, and more.
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Iran
commentary
Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence
Jordan R. Reimer @Jordan_R_Reimer
Jan 17, 2020
The World Post
Last year, Iran faced protests at home as well as in Iraq and Lebanon, where thousands rallied against Tehran's regional hegemony. But with its recent machinations and the fallout over the killing of Soleimani, Iran has succeeded in changing the regional conversation.
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Indonesia
commentary
Why Is China Pressing Indonesia Again Over Its Maritime Claims?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
Jan 16, 2020
World Politics Review
China sparked a major maritime confrontation with Indonesia near the South China Sea in December when dozens of Chinese fishing vessels, along with a coast guard escort, entered waters off the Natuna Islands. What drove Beijing to stake out its sovereignty claims against Indonesia at this particular time? And what can Indonesia and other regional neighbors expect of Chinese behavior going forward?
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Mental Health and Illness
commentary
Mental Wellbeing in the Workplace
Michael Whitmore
Jan 13, 2020
Employee Benefits
Much of the mental health support provided by employers focuses on individual staff members, but it is equally important to consider how an organization itself may need to change to effectively support employees. If an organization is serious about improving staff mental health, assessing the working culture honestly and implementing appropriate changes could be one necessary step.
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China
commentary
China's Footprint in Europe
Ali Wyne, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
Jan 13, 2020
ChinaFile
Tensions between Washington and Brussels may be helping China find a more receptive audience for its Belt and Road initiative. One of the central challenges for the United States and Europe will be to forge a more united approach to China's resurgence.
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Education Policy
commentary
How the 'Ostrich Europe' Scenario Could Help Guide EU Education Policy
Axelle Devaux @AxelleDevaux
Jan 13, 2020
Encompass
A future scenarios approach can help identify different ways in which the future may plausibly unfold. Seeing how policies implemented now play out in the different scenarios can show us what the possible implications of policy decisions could be. This in turn can contribute to evidence-based policy making.
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Opioids
essay
Fentanyl: The Most Dangerous Illegal Drug in America
Jan 13, 2020
America's fentanyl crisis is unlike previous drug epidemics and is likely to get worse. Deaths involving fentanyl and other synthetic opioids have surged from around 3,000 in 2013 to more than 30,000 in 2018. Solving the problem requires innovative approaches and unprecedented resources.
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Iran
blog
Iran, Mental Health and Jail, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 10, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on Iran and Iraq following the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, supporting those experiencing mental illness in jails, Russia's hostile measures, and more.
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Demographics
blog
Ink Tank: At RAND, Tattoos Sometimes Reflect the Research
Jan 10, 2020
Three RAND experts and one Pardee RAND student explain how their tattoos reflect their research on the problems Marines face, end-of-life care, migration-related issues, and the changing needs of the labor force.
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Workforce Development
essay
Education and Employment Should Be One System, Not Two
Jan 7, 2020
Too many American workers aren't getting the education and training they need to compete in the 21st century. We need to revamp the entire system of educating and employing people. And that system needs to ensure equitable access to opportunities and lifelong learning.
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Iran
commentary
How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?
Elisa Catalano Ewers, Ariane M. Tabatabai
Jan 7, 2020
The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.
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Iraq
commentary
Baghdad Siege Wasn't Benghazi, and Never Will Be
Raphael S. Cohen
Jan 6, 2020
Fox News Channel
Given the heightened tension between the United States and Iran and the ongoing instability in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad may very well be attacked again. If such an attack were to be successful, it would be more akin to the fall of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon than the U.S. mission in Benghazi.
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Iraq
commentary
Iraq's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops Is Iran's True Victory
Ben Connable
Jan 6, 2020
Los Angeles Times
If American soldiers are ejected from Iraq, the consequences may be far-reaching and damaging to U.S. strategic interests. What options remain to reset the relationship between Washington and Baghdad?
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Iran
commentary
All-Out U.S.-Iran War Is Unlikely. But Low-Level War Expected to Continue
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Jan 6, 2020
Fox News Channel
Iranian retaliation for Soleimani's killing and counter-retaliation by the United States seem likely. But Tehran and Washington have good reasons to inflict limited pain without engaging in a full-scale war.
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Iraq
commentary
Can Iraq Evict U.S. Forces?
Stacie L. Pettyjohn @StaciePettyjohn
Jan 6, 2020
The Washington Post
The Iraqi parliament voted to expel U.S. troops from Iraq. This vote was nonbinding, and the Iraqi caretaker government cannot pass laws, but it does indicate that a majority in parliament wants U.S. forces to leave.
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Artificial Intelligence
commentary
What Chess Can Teach Us About the Future of AI and War
Andrew J. Lohn @andrewjlohn
Jan 3, 2020
War on the Rocks
Will artificial intelligence (AI) change warfare? It's hard to say. AI itself is not new, but AI as a critical factor in competitions is relatively novel and, as a result, there's not much data to draw from. Perhaps the most interesting examples are in the world of chess.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korea: Selling Political Deception
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
Jan 3, 2020
The National Interest
Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.
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Health and Wellness Promotion
blog
Preventing the Winter Blues, North Korea, Opioids: RAND Weekly Recap
Jan 3, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on how to ward off the winter blues, Kim Jong Un's latest threat, how to spend opioid settlement funds, and more.
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Iran
blog
Iranian Commander Soleimani Killed: RAND Experts React
Jan 3, 2020
The White House has confirmed that a U.S. airstrike authorized by President Trump killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani just outside the Baghdad airport in Iraq. We've rounded up how RAND researchers reacted to the news.
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West Africa
commentary
Abandoning West Africa Carries Risks for U.S.
Michael Shurkin @MichaelShurkin
Jan 3, 2020
The Hill
News that the U.S. Department of Defense is contemplating a major drawdown in West Africa comes as the region is in crisis. For Americans, the Sahel crisis raises a fundamental question: Beyond basic humanitarian concern, if the Sahel falls apart, why should Americans care?
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China
commentary
What to Expect from China in 2020
Ali Wyne, James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins
Jan 3, 2020
The Hill
Last year was an eventful one in China, with U.S.–China trade tensions escalating, protests in Hong Kong reaching a crisis point, and President Xi Jinping further consolidating power. What might the rest of the world expect from China in 2020?
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Russia
commentary
Why We Must Talk to Russia
Samuel Charap @scharap, Jeremy Shapiro
Jan 2, 2020
Atlantic Council
Compromise is the essence of diplomacy, the only way short of coercion, violence, and war of settling international disputes. Before we accept that no compromise with Russia is possible, we should first understand the cost of a new Cold War with Russia that would result.
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