May 2020

Russia
commentary
Why Russia Struggles to Feed Its Great-Power Addiction
William Courtney @courtneywmh, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz
May 11, 2020
The National Interest
Russia has become less cooperative and pursued more autarky in recent years. If Moscow continues this path of resisting globalization, it could be left behind.
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North Korea
commentary
North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett
May 8, 2020
The National Interest
Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?
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Political Reform Movements
commentary
COVID-19 Crisis Could Spur Post-Soviet Fixes
Denis Corboy, William Courtney @courtneywmh, Kenneth Yalowitz
May 8, 2020
The Moscow Times
Much of the post-Soviet space remains afflicted with authoritarian rule, inefficient economies, corruption, and regional tensions. The COVID-19 crisis could prod countries to address key issues, but they will need help. Targeted Western aid could help willing countries make progress.
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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
blog
Reopening America, China's 'Mask Diplomacy,' State Police Powers: RAND Weekly Recap
May 8, 2020
This weekly recap focuses on a RAND tool that estimates the public health and economic effects of reopening America, China's “mask diplomacy,” using police powers for pandemic response, and more.
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Wargaming
q&a
The Serious Side of Gaming: Q&A with Yuna Wong
May 8, 2020
Yuna Wong, codirector of RAND's Center for Gaming, didn't expect to make gaming a focus of her career. In this interview, she discusses what drew her to the field, what makes a good wargame, and her latest research on the dangers of putting too much trust in artificial intelligence.
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Philippines
commentary
Are Military Purchases in SE Asia for Political Balancing a Good Use of National Defense Resources?
Chandler Sachs, John V. Parachini
May 7, 2020
Asian Military Review
The Philippines has embarked upon a multi-phase, multi-year modernization of its armed forces, but some of the acquisition decisions appear to be driven by political symbolism rather than responsible military decisions. Using military procurement for political symbolism and paying a high price for it takes resources away from other pressing national security and domestic needs.
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Employment and Unemployment
commentary
Is the Unemployment Rate Now Higher Than It Was in the Great Depression?
Jeffrey B. Wenger, Kathryn A. Edwards @keds_economist
May 7, 2020
The RAND Blog
The extent of COVID-19's effect on the labor market will be catastrophic for many workers and businesses. Matching the unemployment rate peak set by the Great Depression is not even necessary to establish the historic nature of the downturn that we're living through.
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Statistical Analysis Methodology
commentary
Don't Make the Pandemic Worse with Poor Data Analysis
Matthew D. Baird, David G. Groves, Osonde A. Osoba @OsondeOsoba, Andrew M. Parker, Ricardo Sanchez, Claude Messan Setodji
May 6, 2020
The RAND Blog
The need for immediate answers in the face of severe public health and economic distress may create a temptation to relax statistical standards. But urgency should not preclude expert analysis and honest assessments of uncertainty. Mistaken assumptions could lead to counterproductive actions.
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Capacity Building
commentary
Protecting the U.S. Supply on Heavy Lift Launch Vehicles
Bonnie L. Triezenberg
May 6, 2020
The RAND Blog
Our recent RAND report on the global heavy lift launch market highlights the potential for a near term shortage of launch vehicles needed to lift U.S. defense and intelligence satellites to orbit. These satellites are the eyes, ears, networks and timekeepers of U.S. armed services, and an inability to launch them in times of need could compromise national security.
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Missile Defense
commentary
Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System: Is It Worth the Sticker Price?
Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini
May 6, 2020
The RAND Blog
Many countries do not fully appreciate that effective air defense requires a networked system and not just one missile system component. Getting the true defensive value out of the S-400 surface-to-air system requires additional components that add costs and complexities.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Jumpstarting the U.S.-Japan-Korea Trilateral Amid COVID-19
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold
May 6, 2020
The Diplomat
Since roughly 2012, South Korea–Japan ties have frayed. Could the United States encourage trilateral medical cooperation during the pandemic, ensure that the Tokyo Olympic Games are held, and in so doing help heal the relationship between Seoul and Tokyo?
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Science of Science
commentary
Leading with the Proper Use of Scientific Evidence Is Better Than Hiding Behind It
Tom Ling
May 5, 2020
The RAND Blog
Evidence only has scientific meaning when it is part of a body of disciplinary knowledge produced by a community of scientists. Leading with scientific evidence, coupled with a wider values framework, may result in better outcomes for all.
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Health Care Access
commentary
Non-Emergency Medical Transportation in the Time of COVID-19
Laura Fraade-Blanar, Christopher M. Whaley @cm_whaley
May 5, 2020
The RAND Blog
More widespread availability of rideshare for non-emergency medical transport may save lives, reserve emergency resources for those who need them, and provide safe pathways to primary care for the chronically ill. It could also save livelihoods, providing employment in a time of economic hardship.
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China
commentary
Don't Be Fooled by China's Mask Diplomacy
Jeffrey W. Hornung
May 5, 2020
Los Angeles Times
China has provided coronavirus-related aid to hundreds of countries. This appears to be an effort to make the world forget its role in the COVID-19 crisis, and to take advantage of its neighbors' current distraction.
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International Diplomacy
commentary
Reviewing Vietnam's 'Struggle' Options in the South China Sea
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman
May 4, 2020
The Diplomat
Once again, Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea is on the rise. Vietnam has publicly protested each Chinese move, but these statements have yet to alter Beijing's bad behavior. Among its many options, Hanoi could look to Washington for further assistance.
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