Throughout the course of the nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany) and Iran, RAND experts have been engaged in a broad exercise to explore what the "Days After a Deal" might look like for a variety of actors and issues.
In this December 16, 2014 presentation, RAND analyst Larry Hanauer identifies and assesses eight potential courses of action that Congress could take that might facilitate, hinder, or block implementation of a nuclear deal with Iran.
The resulting series of RAND Perspectives on the topic assumes that the parties reach a comprehensive agreement that meets both sides' core interests by permitting Iran some continued nuclear enrichment capability, imposing a stringent inspection and verification regime, and requiring changes to the U.S. and international sanctions regime. Here is the latest three in the series:
- First, Larry Hanauer explores Congress's Role in Implementing a Nuclear Agreement with Iran and assesses the likelihood and impacts of each. On one end of the spectrum, lawmakers could support a deal's implementation by removing statutory sanctions; on the other, it could withhold funds needed to execute the deal or nullify it through legislation. However, Congress is most likely to take a middle-of-the-road approach that enables the administration to provide sufficient sanctions relief to appeal to Tehran.
- In the second, Jeffrey M. Kaplow and Rebecca Davis Gibbons examine the Implications for the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime. Slowing or stopping Iran's nuclear development is an important nonproliferation accomplishment, but the international community will need to find ways to mitigate some of the deal's negative consequences.
- Finally, Lynn E. Davis and David E. Thaler explore the choices that will need to be made regarding U.S. military posture and activities in the Middle East, and Implications for the Air Force. The nature of these choices will be influenced by potential pathways to change in U.S. policies that could emerge in the aftermath of a nuclear deal.
You can download copies of these Perspectives by clicking on the links above. To obtain more information on the project, including access to RAND's previously published work, information from RAND events on the topic, and multimedia, please visit our "Days After a Deal" project site.
Please don't hesitate to contact me at (703) 413-1100, ext. 5259 or Kurt_Card@rand.org if you would like like additional information, or would like to speak to one of the report's authors, or have any other questions.
(703) 413-1100 ext. 5259