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Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict | Web version
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Congressional alert
February 19, 2021
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Ilan Rosenberg/Reuters
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For decades, the two-state solution has dominated efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Today, there is a belief among analysts and the Israeli and Palestinian publics that the two-state solution might no longer be feasible in light of political and demographic trends and structural developments on the ground. The growing doubts about the viability of the two-state solution raise the question of which, if any, of the possible alternative futures in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if appropriately supported by the international community, could succeed in ending this conflict.
A new RAND report explores this question by examining five alternatives that capture the range of what has been proposed. These alternatives are:
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- Today’s status quo, marked by limited Palestinian autonomy, overriding Israeli security control, and ongoing Israeli settlement expansion;
- The two-state solution, which usually includes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, with borders based on the pre-1967 borders and land swaps;
- A confederation, which would establish two (Israel and Palestine) or more independent and sovereign states that would cooperate on issues of mutual interest by way of a federal government;
- Annexation, in which Israel unilaterally would annex some parts of land it captured during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, increasing the territorial size of Israel;
- A democratic one-state solution that envisages a single state encompassing all (or most) of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
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The researchers conducted 33 focus groups in the region to gather both qualitative and quantitative data on perspectives toward the viability of each alternative. The focus group exercise collected detailed opinions of more than 270 individuals, including West Bank Palestinians, Gazan Palestinians, Israeli Jews, and Israeli Arabs.
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Three key policy insights emerged from this research:
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- No alternatives to the status quo will be viable without a shift in domestic and international politics. The status quo, regardless of the potential long-term consequences, is currently the preferred option of Israeli Jews. However, the research, as well as that of many other observers of the political stalemate, indicates that there is strong support for the two-state solution among Israeli Jews. Identifying the types of incentives that can be provided, both domestically and internationally, to encourage Israelis to be willing to explore the two-state solution is likely critical.
- International security guarantees for the Palestinians will likely be necessary for any peaceful resolution to the conflict. Palestinians will likely require security guarantees, credibly backed by the international community, to accept any negotiated settlement to the conflict. Working with the Palestinians to identify the types of security guarantees that can bridge their concerns with the existing formulation of the two-state solution is likely critical to the viability of any peaceful resolution to the conflict.
- Educating Israelis and Palestinians about the different alternative futures could lead to more pragmatic decisionmaking, as few participants had a clear understanding of any of the five alternatives, including the two-state solution and even the status quo.
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The research suggests that mistrust, broadly defined, is likely the greatest impediment to peace. People-to-people efforts are therefore likely a critical component of peacebuilding efforts. However, alongside this, international action and commitments must involve economic and security guarantees, for Israelis and Palestinians alike, and a public dialogue to guide and develop thinking about the alternatives and their implications.
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RAND Congressional Resources Staff
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Members of Congress and staff can receive free copies of RAND reports and engage with researchers. To request reports, briefings, or meetings, or to invite researchers to testify, please contact:
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(703) 413-1100, ext. 5643. |
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