National Security
Congressional Newsletter
Monthly updates to Congress on RAND's work in national security

SUSTAINING U.S. NUCLEAR SUBMARINE DESIGN CAPABILITIES
Authors: John Schank, Mark Arena, Paul DeLuca, Jessie Riposo, Kimberly Curry, Todd Weeks, and James Chiesa

nuclear submarine For the first time since the design of the first nuclear submarine, the U.S. Navy has no nuclear submarine design program under way, which raises the possibility that design capability could be lost. Such a loss could result in higher costs and delays when the next submarine design is undertaken, as well as risks to system performance and safety. This report estimates and compares the costs and delays of letting design capability erode vs. those of alternative means of managing the workload and workforce over the gap in design demand and beyond.

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A NEW DIVISION OF LABOR: MEETING AMERICA'S SECURITY CHALLENGES BEYOND IRAQ
Authors: Andrew Hoehn, Adam Grissom, David Ochmanek, David Shlapak, and Alan Vick

Four branches of U.S. military A new U.S. grand strategy has been emerging, one that requires not only resources but patience and commitment: the promotion of democracy and freedom abroad. The U.S. armed forces will continue to be among the myriad contributors necessary to achieve this goal. This volume draws together and integrates insights derived from a wide range of research efforts undertaken at the RAND Corporation over the past few years. The report offers some observations, such as different ways to organize and employ forces, along with specific recommendations, such as having the Air Force to reevaluate its concepts for large-scale power projection.

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FINDING THE BALANCE BETWEEN SCHOOLHOUSE AND ON-THE-JOB TRAINING
Authors: Thomas Manacapilli, Alexis Bailey, Christopher Beighley, Bart Bennett, and Aimee Bower

On the job training The Air Force typically trains 30,000 to 40,000 new airmen a year. It utilizes two methods for training enlistees: centralized initial skills training (“schoolhouse” training) and decentralized on-the-job training. This report develops a methodology to determine the most cost-effective combination of the two, based on a cost-benefit analysis of seven Air Force specialties.

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SUSTAINING AIR FORCE SPACE SYSTEMS: A MODEL FOR THE GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM
Authors: Don Snyder, Patrick Mills, Katherine Comanor, and Charles Robert Roll, Jr.

GPS orbiting earth Air Force Space Command needs quantitative tools to assist it in making decisions on how changes in the dollars invested in maintenance and sustainment of the ground segment of space systems affect the operational performance of those systems. Focusing on the Global Positioning System, this monograph outlines criteria for analyzing how sustainment investments affect the operational performance of space systems, offers a framework for such analyses, and recommends steps to implement that framework.

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FACTORS TO CONSIDER IN BLENDING ACTIVE AND RESERVE MANPOWER WITHIN MILITARY UNITS
Authors: Harry Thie, Roland Yardley, Peter Schirmer, Rudolph Ehrenberg, and Penelope Speed

Border patrol in Iraq, photo courtesy U.S. Army The Department of Defense has suggested that “blending” active component and reserve component workforces in military units must be implemented more broadly for a more flexible, capable force. This report examines existing organizational designs that facilitate integration of the reserve and active workforces, to ascertain whether changed personnel management practices are needed to further implement these designs.

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"PEOPLE MAKE THE CITY," EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: JOINT URBAN OPERATIONS OBSERVATIONS AND INSIGHTS FROM AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
Authors: Russell Glenn, Christopher Paul, Todd Helmus, and Paul Steinberg

U.S. soldier in Tal Afar, photo courtesy U.S. Army by Air Force Staff Sgt. Jacob Bailey Today’s strategic environment implies an obligation to preserve innocent life when possible and to rebuild that which war destroys.  Urban areas are the keys to nations; as Thucydides wrote, people make nations just as men make cities.  This report aims to reveal lessons that will better enable military and civilian alike to meet national policy objectives by more effectively conducting urban combat and restoration.

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MAKING LIBERIA SAFE: TRANSFORMATION OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY SECTOR
Authors: David Gompert, Olga Oliker, Brooke Stearns, Keith Crane, and K. Jack Riley

Liberian police, REUTERS/Tim A Hetherington/Landov Liberia’s new government has made security sector transformation a high priority. This report analyzes Liberia’s complex security environment, sets forth an integrated security concept to guide the formation and use of those forces, and assembles a complete security structure.  It develops specific force-structure options, discusses the cost-effectiveness of each, and suggests immediate steps toward implementation of the new security structure. 

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ENHANCING STRATEGIC PLANNING WITH MASSIVE SCENARIO GENERATION: THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS
Authors: Paul Davis, Steven Bankes, and Michael Egner

chess match This technical report extends research on model-based exploratory analysis for strategic planning with massive scenario generation (MSG), a technique that combines virtues of human-intensive and model-intensive exploration of “the possibility space.” Metrics are identified for measuring the virtues of a particular approach to MSG, and two experiments using MSG are described, one starting with a reasonable but untested analytical model, the other starting without a model but with a list of distinguishing conditions.

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A STRATEGIES-TO-TASKS FRAMEWORK FOR PLANNING AND EXECUTING INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE, AND RECONNAISSANCE (ISR) OPERATIONS
Authors: Carl Rhodes, Jeff Hagen, and Mark Westergren

US Air Force Security Team To move Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance planning and execution forward from a fixed target and deliberate planning focus to one centered on emerging targets, this report proposes enhancing collection management with a strategies-to-tasks and utility framework. By linking collection targets to operational tasks, objectives, and commander guidance with relative utilities, planning for the daily intelligence collections and real-time retasking for ad hoc ISR targets could be enhanced.

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CONSTRAINTS ON JP-900 JET FUEL PRODUCTION CONCEPTS
Authors: James Bartis and G. Torrance Flint Jr.

Mined coal Recent work on alternative methods of producing jet fuel for military applications has included coprocessing coal or coal-derived products with low-value liquid intermediates and co-coking, which uses a mixture of solid coal and decant oil. But the limited availability of coal tar and decant oil and limited marketability of the coke coproducts will severely constrain jet fuel production from these process concepts. This report address these issues and make recommendations regarding future directions on alternative methods of producing jet fuel for military applications.

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THEORY AND METHODS FOR SUPPORTING HIGH LEVEL MILITARY DECISIONMAKING
Authors: Paul Davis and James Kahan

Planning future forces This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty.

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COUNTERINSURGENCY INTELLIGENCE IN A “LONG WAR”: THE BRITISH EXPERIENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND
Author: Brian Jackson

IRA graffiti, Derry/Londonderry, 1986 Using the example of British intelligence successes and failures in the fight against the Provisional Irish Republican Army, this reprint shows that counterintelligence collection efforts must diverge significantly from “classical” collection methods.

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COMMENTARY

The following is a list of national security related commentary pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve past commentary pieces, please visit RAND's commentary page.

IS AMERICA PREPARED FOR DISASTER?
Author: Brian A. Jackson (Washingtonpost.com)

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NUCLEAR TERROR: HOW REAL?
Author: Brian Michael Jenkins (Washington Times)

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A WAR OF NERVES IN TURKEY
Author: F. Stephen Larrabee (Project Syndicate)

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PRO-AMERICAN YES, FRENCH POODLE NO
Author: Christopher Chivvis (International Herald Tribune)

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AFGHANISTAN: WHY CANADA SHOULD STAY
Author: Seth Jones (Toronto Star)

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RAND CONGRESSIONAL RESOURCES STAFF

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TESTIMONY

POLICY ISSUES FOR COAL-TO-LIQUID DEVELOPMENT

Author: James Bartis

Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on May 24, 2007.

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RELATED LINKS

More Congressional Resources on National Security

National Security Research Area

RAND National Security Research Division

RAND Project AIR FORCE

RAND Army Research Division (RAND Arroyo)

RAND Congressional Web Site

RAND Web Site


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