National Security

CONGRESSIONAL NEWSLETTER


This monthly bulletin summarizes RAND national security publications released in the last month. Click on any link to view the full report. To request free copies of RAND publications, write to ocr@rand.org.

Past issues of this bulletin can be viewed in the archive section of RAND's Web site for Congress.


August 2003


Contents:
A. New Releases
    1. Reports
    2. Documented Briefings & Conference Proceedings
    3. Testimony
    4. Terrorism Incident Database
    5. Op-Eds
B. About RAND
C. Subscription and Ordering Information

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A. NEW RELEASES
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1. Reports
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AMERICA'S ROLE IN NATION-BUILDING FROM GERMANY TO IRAQ
Authors: James Dobbins, John G. McGinn, Keith Crane, Seth G. Jones, Rollie Lal, Andrew Rathmell, Rachel Swanger, and Anga Timilsina

In Iraq, the United States is facing its most challenging nation-building project since the 1940s. The authors draw lessons from seven case studies-Germany, Japan, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan-then apply these to the Iraq case. The results suggest that nation-building will be difficult but possible. Success will, however, require investing sufficient financial, military, political resources, and time.
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BENCHMARKING SECURITY AND TRUST IN EUROPE AND THE US
Authors: Leon Cremonini, Lorenzo Valeri

This report presents the results of two pilot surveys (for citizens and for businesses) held in 2002, which addressed respondents from the European Union, Switzerland and the United States on a number of topics, among others 'Security and Trust'. It explores how Europeans and Americans experience online threats and vulnerabilities.
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THE GLOBAL COURSE OF THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION RECURRING THEMES AND REGIONAL VARIATIONS
Authors: Richard O. Hundley, Robert H. Anderson, Tora K. Bikson, C. Richard Neu

Advances in information technology are heavily influencing ways in which business, society, and government work and function throughout the globe, bringing many changes to everyday life, in a process commonly termed the "information revolution." This book paints a picture of the state of the information revolution today and how it will likely progress in the near- to mid-term future (10 to 15 years), focusing separately on different regions of the world-North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
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PRELIMINARY BENEFIT/COST FRAMEWORK FOR COUNTERTERRORISM PUBLIC EXPENDITURES
Author: Benjamin Zycher

The author develops a range of rough estimates of the benefits and costs of a U.S. counterterrorism effort in the context of moderate (based on Northern Ireland in 1999), severe (recent Israeli experience), and nuclear terrorist attacks against the United States. The analysis suggests that short-run marginal benefit may exceed marginal cost, and thus that spending may in fact be too little. Another important facet of the problem is the financing source for the counterterrorism efforts-the federal government or state or local agencies.
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Documented Briefings & Conference Proceedings
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FORKS IN THE ROAD FOR THE U.S. NAVY
Author: Francis W. LaCroix and Irv Blickstein

Making the right decisions at turning points can be the difference between victory and defeat. The Navy asked RAND if it could identify "forks in the road"-future decision points that may require a significant change in direction. After defining the attributes of such forks, the authors use an interview process and an opportunity-risk analysis to identify nine forks that the Navy should consider first. These nine diverse forks were followed by two high-risk forks-unmanned vehicles and space-based capabilities-that could yield high payoffs.
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IMPLEMENTING BEST PURCHASING AND SUPPLY MANAGEMENT PRACTICESLESSONS FROM INNOVATIVE COMMERCIAL FIRMS
Author: Nancy Y. Moore, Laura H. Baldwin, Frank Camm, Cynthia R. Cook

RAND examined how innovative commercial firms implement purchasing and supply management (PSM) practices in their purchases of good and services. Three key findings are presented in this briefing: (1) innovative commercial firms are moving to a strategic, goal-oriented approach to PSM, (2) implementing new PSM practices can take a number of years and often requires significant, permanent change throughout the organization, and (3) the Air Force needs strategies to sustain continuity of support for serious PSM change from one leadership team to the next.
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THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE SHADOW OF AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
Author: F. Stephen Larrabee

On May 5-6, 2003, RAND and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy held a two-day conference in Geneva that examined the impact of the Iraq war on the security of the Middle East. It was attended by specialists from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. This document summarizes the main issues and points of discussion at the conference: the impact of Iraq on the war on terrorism; the future of Iran and Iraq, repercussions of the war on Syria, the Levant, Turkey, Jordan, and the Arabian peninsula; and the effect of the war on transatlantic ties.
blue arrowRead the conference proceedings

Testimony
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COMPETITIVE SOURCING AND THE MORALE OF FEDERAL EMPLOYEES
Author: Frank Camm

Presented before the United States Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight of Government Management, the Federal Workforce, and the District of Columbia.
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Terrorism Incident Database
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RAND-MIPT TERRORISM INCIDENT DATABASE AVAILABLE ONLINE

RAND has compiled a Terrorism Incident Database for the past 30 years and has joined forces with the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism to make the database available online. The system includes two RAND databases, the RAND Terrorism Chronology Database and the RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident Database. The RAND Terrorism Chronology Database records international terrorist incidents that occurred between 1968 and 1997, while the RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident Database records domestic and international terrorist incidents that occurred from 1998 to present.
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Op-Eds
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The following is a list of national security related opinion pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve them, please visit RAND's Commentary page.

HEADLINES OVER THE HORIZON
Analysts at the RAND Corporation lay out ten international-security developments that aren't getting the attention they deserve. (Atlantic Monthly)

AMERICA NEEDS EUROPE, TO WIN PEACE IN IRAQ
Author: Robert Hunter (Financial Times)

THE NEXT DEBATE: AL QAEDA LINK
Author: Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon (New York Times)

THE DECISION FOR WAR WAS STILL RIGHT
Author: Charles Wolf, Jr. (Wall Street Journal, European Edition)

WE'VE BEEN DOWN THIS ROAD BEFORE
Author: James Dobbins (Los Angeles Times)

GETTING BEYOND BOUNDARIES
Author: William H. Overholt (South China Morning Post)

U.S. FOREIGN POLICY MUST INCLUDE THE ERADICATION OF DANGEROUS DISEASES
Author: Kenneth Shine and Ross Anthony (Modern Healthcare)

BE TOUGHER ON BURMA THAN CHINA
Author: William H. Overholt (Asian Wall Street Journal)

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