National Security

CONGRESSIONAL NEWSLETTER

This monthly bulletin summarizes RAND national security publications released in the last month. Click on any link to view the full report. To request free copies of RAND publications, write to ocr@rand.org.

Past issues of this bulletin can be viewed in the archive section of RAND's Web site for Congress.

December 2003

New Releases

1. Reports

AGING AIRCRAFT: USAF WORKLOAD AND MATERIAL-CONSUMPTION LIFE-CYCLE PATTERNS

Author: Raymond A. Pyles

To help improve the Air Force’s ability to foresee the implications for safety, aircraft availability, and cost of its plans to retain aircraft fleets for service lives that may be as long as 80 years, and to identify actions that will mitigate or avoid some of the more severe consequences, this study measures how the USAF aircraft fleets’ ages relate to maintenance and modification workloads and material consumption.

ARMS TRAFFICKING AND COLOMBIA

Authors: R. Kim Cragin and Bruce Hoffman

Colombia has experienced significant political instability and violence over the past century due to a number of factors, including the proliferation of small-arms trafficking. The authors identify the sources and routes used by arms traffickers to acquire, buy, sell, receive, transfer, and ship weapons. They also examine the various groups and individuals who purchase and use these munitions. The authors examine Colombia’s political conflict through the lens of small-arms trafficking and conclude with policy implications for the United States.

IMPLICATIONS FOR MODEL VALIDATION OF MULTIRESOLUTION, MULTIPERSPECTIVE MODELING (MRMPM) AND EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

Authors: James H. Bigelow and Paul K. Davis

Examples of the use of multiresolution, multiperspective modeling (MRMPM) and exploratory analysis to validate models not based in settled theory or specific empirical testing. A model and its data may not be fully “valid” but may still be useful and good in more-limited ways. MRMPM and exploratory analysis are valuable for extrapolating, generalizing, and abstracting from small sets of analyses done with detailed models; for top-down planning; and for providing broad, synoptic assessments.

USE OF SIMULATION FOR TRAINING IN THE U.S. NAVY SURFACE FORCE

Authors: Roland Yardley, Harry Thie, John F. Schank, Jolene Galegher, and Jessie L. Riposo

A number of naval exercises can be conducted in port, using various forms of simulation, rather than at sea. Some groups, such as commercial shipping, already rely more heavily on such training than the U.S. Navy does. Can the U.S. Navy do the same, yet still maintain or improve readiness? The authors look at current uses of simulation and suggest ways to best use underway and simulation training time and strategies for implementation.

2. Documented Briefings

COMBAT SERVICE SUPPORT TRANSFORMATION: EMERGING STRATEGIES FOR MAKING THE POWER PROJECTION ARMY A REALITY

Authors: Eric Peltz, John M. Halliday, and Steven L. Hartman

To be a strategically responsive force, the Army must be able to rapidly move or project forces with sufficient power to execute a broad spectrum of missions. This briefing examines the Army's strategies for transforming its combat service support (CSS) activities in support of this power projection goal. The authors aim to provide a common understanding of the strategies the Army is using to improve power projection capability from a CSS perspective and to spur additional application of these strategies.

3. Testimony

HITTING AMERICA’S SOFT UNDERBELLY: THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF DELIBERATE BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS AGAINST THE U.S. AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD INDUSTRY

Author: Peter Chalk

Testimony presented before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee on Wednesday, November 19, 2003.

4. Commentary

The following is a list of national security related opinion pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve them, please visit RAND's Commentary page.

THE CHANGING FACE OF CHINESE DIPLOMACY

Authors: Evan S. Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel (Asian Wall Street Journal)

IN THE CALCULUS OF FEAR, TERRORISTS HAVE AN EDGE

Author: Bruce Hoffman (Los Angeles Times)

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