National Security
Congressional Newsletter
This monthly bulletin summarizes national security documents published by the RAND Corporation in the last month. Click on any link to view the full text of the study.
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December 2005
Contents:
A. NEW RELEASES
1. Reports
ESTIMATING TERRORISM RISK
Authors: Henry Willis, Andrew Morral, Terrence Kelly, and Jamison Jo Medby
With the United States Senate and House of Representatives recently unable to reach a compromise on how to re-write the formula for distributing homeland security grants to police, firefighters, and other first-responders, the issue of how to estimate terrorism risk will continue to be of concern for Congress. This report offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates and makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation: 1) the U.S. Government should consistently define terrorism risk in terms of metrics like expected annual consequences, 2) the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) should seek robust risk estimators that account for uncertainty about terrorism risk and variance in citizen values, 3) DHS should use event-based models to assess terrorism risk, 4) a top-down approach should be used for strategic risk assessment while a bottom-up approach should be used to support design or tactical decisions, and 5) the U.S. Government should invest resources to bridge the gap between terrorism risk assessment and resource allocation policies that are cost effective.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG388/
PRICE-BASED ACQUISITION: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FOR DEFENSE DEPARTMENT PROCUREMENT OF WEAPON SYSTEMS
Authors: Mark Lorell, John Graser, and Cynthia Cook
Price-based acquisition (PBA), a major acquisition reform measure being used by the Department of Defense (DoD), is claimed to reduce costs and enhance acquisition efficiency. This report presents findings based on structured interviews and case studies to determine whether the claims are true and what potential benefits PBA may hold for DoD.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB172/
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG337/
AMERICAN CARRIER AIR POWER AT THE DAWN OF A NEW CENTURY
Authors: Benjamin Lambeth
In the Afghanistan war, U.S. carrier-based fighters substituted almost entirely for land-based theater air forces. The Navy’s carriers again played a key role in conducting around-the-clock operations against Saddam Hussein’s forces in Iraq. American carrier air power is now able to conduct coordinated deep-strike missions well beyond coastal reaches. The Navy’s performance over Afghanistan and Iraq showed how the nation’s carrier force can provide around-the-clock target coverage, consistently accurate target attack, and multiple successful target attacks per sortie.
Read the Research Brief: http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9137/
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG404/
THE QUALITY OF PERSONNEL IN THE ENLISTED RANKS
Authors: Beth Asch, John Romley, and Mark Totten
The armed services must attract, retain, and promote high-quality personnel. This monograph examines their ability to meet these goals in the past. Using the quality index, this report finds that those who complete their first terms, who stay until year of service (YOS) 8 or YOS12, and those who are promoted to higher grades are significantly higher quality. Its conclusions differ from those drawn from traditional measures because the study’s measure includes information that cannot be predicted at entry but is instead revealed on the job.
Read the Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG324/
2. Technical Reports
INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY LEGISLATION FOR SECURITY SECTOR REFORM
Authors: Greg Hannah, Kevin O'Brien, and Andrew Rathmell
This report provides an opportunity to learn from the successes and failures of intelligence and security legislation in various countries. It provides a definition of intelligence; describes intelligence production; examines the role of intelligence in security sector reform; highlights the importance of control and accountability; examines how six countries have developed and implemented intelligence reforms; and identifies key lessons.
Read the Technical Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR288/
NATIONAL SECURITY DECISION-MAKING STRUCTURES AND SECURITY SECTOR REFORM
Authors: Susanna Bearne, Olga Oliker, Kevin O'Brien, and Andrew Rathmell
This report provides a basis for discussion and an opportunity to learn from the successes and failures of national security decision-making structures in various countries. It defines security sector reform; outlines the roles of national security decision-making structures; examines case-studies; and draws out a number of lessons for any future security sector reform activity in this area.
Read the Technical Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR289/
SCOPING AEROSPACE: TRACKING FEDERAL PROCUREMENT AND R&D SPENDING IN THE AEROSPACE SECTOR
Authors: Thor Hogan, Donna Fossum, Dana Johnson, and Lawrence Painter
Assesses the scope of external federal spending in the aerospace industry from 1993 to 2003 by tracking all government aerospace procurement and research and development (R&D) expenditures from 1993 to 2003. The report finds evidence of a clear downward trend in federal aerospace procurement and R&D expenditures during the decade.
Read the Technical Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR263/
THE EFFECTS OF EQUIPMENT AGE ON SPARE PART COSTS: A STUDY OF M1 TANKS
Authors: Carol Fan, Eric Peltz, and Lisa Colabella
Increasing average ages of Army weapon systems have been assumed to lead to higher maintenance costs. However, the effects of age on costs have proved difficult to specify. This report examines the relationship between equipment age and spare part costs for M1 Abrams tanks through the use of part requisition data.
Read the Technical Report: http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR286/
3. Congressional Testimony
MODERATE AND RADICAL ISLAM
Author: Angel Rabasa
Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee Defense Review Terrorism and Radical Islam Gap Panel on November 3, 2005.
Read the Congressional Testimony: http://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT251/
4. Commentary
The following is a list of national security related commentary pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve past commentary pieces, please visit RAND's Commentary page: http://www.rand.org/commentary/
SHAREHOLDERS DON'T SHOOT EACH OTHER
Charles Wolf, Jr. (Wall Street Journal)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/11/23/WSJ.html
MISJUDGING THE JIHAD: BRIEFING OSAMA ON ALL THE WAR'S WINS AND LOSSES
Brian Michael Jenkins and Gregory Treverton (San Francisco Chronicle)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/11/13/SFC.html
THE WORLD NEEDS A PREFAB CONSTITUTION
Cheryl Benard (International Herald Tribune)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/11/07/IHT.html
BUSH NEEDS ALLIES NEAR IRAQ, HOWEVER UNSAVOURY
Ambassador James Dobbins (Financial Times)
Read the Commentary: http://www.rand.org/commentary/2005/11/01/FT.html
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