Congressional Newsletter

National Security

U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov in a Ukraine Defence Contact group meeting in Brussels, Belgium, June 15, 2022, photo by Yves Herman/Pool/Reuters

Yves Herman/Pool/Reuters

Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

The potential for Russia to decide to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. A new RAND paper summarizes four plausible escalation pathways, describes the conditions under which Moscow might undertake such actions, and lays out how U.S. and NATO actions could affect each pathway’s likelihood.

The authors conclude with a set of key considerations for U.S. policymakers to help them manage escalation risks while continuing to pursue U.S. objectives in the context of the war in Ukraine. U.S. and allied policymakers should be concerned with specific pathways and potential triggers, but they need not operate under the assumption that every action will entail acute escalation risks.
Read more »

National Security Research Division

adimas and bennymarty/Adobe Stock

The Sources of Societal Competitiveness: How Nations Actually Succeed in Long-Term Rivalries

Michael J. Mazarr

Read the research brief »

A green wireframe model covers an actor's lower face during the creation of a synthetic facial reanimation video, aka a deepfake, in London, Britain, February 12, 2019, photo by Reuters TV

Reuters TV

Artificial Intelligence, Deepfakes, and Disinformation: A Primer

Todd C. Helmus

Read the perspective »

Satellite in front of a starry landscape

Bonnie L. Triezenberg, Krista Langeland, Bryce Downing

Space Competition and the Dynamics of Conflict: Using Game Theory and Artificial Intelligence to Gain Strategic Insight

Bonnie L. Triezenberg et al.

Read the report »

SolisImages/Getty Images

Civilian Cyber Workers in the U.S. Department of Defense: Demographics, Retention, and Responsiveness to Training Opportunities

Michael G. Mattock et al.

Read the report »

U.S. Army officer returning from Afghanistan holds his son for the first time during a redeployment ceremony at Fort Hood, December 9, 2016

Staff Sgt. Tomora Nance/3rd Cavalry Regiment Public Affairs Office

Diversity in U.S. Military Families: An Environmental Scan of the Peer-Reviewed Literature on Race and Ethnic Variation for Select Well-Being Outcomes

Sarah O. Meadows et al.

Read the report »

D. Carol Ponce adapted from images by olga/AdobeStock, abs jp/AdobeStock

Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches

Aaron B. Frank et al.

Read the report »

Army Chief of Staff Gen. George W. Casey Jr. swears in new officers, May 21, 2010

Photo by J. Elise Van Pool/U.S. Army / CC BY 2.0

Managing Adverse and Reportable Information Regarding U.S. Military Officers: 2019 Update

Katherine L. Kidder et al.

Read the report »

Army Research Division

Soldiers from 1st Cavalry Division crouch in front of tanks during an exercise

Tomarius Roberts/U.S. Army

Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions

Matthew Lane et al.

Read the report »
Access the tool »

Staff Sgt. Roger L. Whaley speaks with a candidate at the U.S. Army Recruiting Station in Radcliff, Ky.

Sgt. Carl N. Hudson/U.S. Army

Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army Reserve’s Enlisted Recruiting Requirements Under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies

Bruce R. Orvis et al.

Read the report »

U.S. Brig. Gen. Jonathan Ellis delivers the oath of enlistment to 10 Army and Navy recruits during a swear-in ceremony at the MEPS in Shreveport, Louisiana, Feb. 27, 2018, photo by Justin Oakes/U.S. Air Force

Justin Oakes/U.S. Air Force

Forecasting End Strength in the U.S. Army Reserve: An Integrated Modeling Concept

Katharina Ley Best et al.

Read the report »

Sgt. Thomas Childs/U.S. Army

French Army Approaches to Networked Warfare

Michael Shurkin et al.

Read the report »

Project Air Force

Erik McGregor/Sipa USA/Reuters

How the Effects of Racial Bias Compound

James M. Anderson et al.

Access the tool »

An individual in a U.S. Air Force uniform uses an overhead touch screen

RAND Corporation

Systematic Method for Prioritizing Investments in Game-Changing Technologies: The Evaluation and Comparison Process Framework

Richard Silberglitt et al.

Read the report »

RAND Congressional Resources Staff

Jayme Fuglesten
Director, Office of Congressional Relations

Kurt Card
National Security Legislative Analyst

Nathaniel Lutovsky
Legislative Analyst

Experts and Research Available to You

Members of Congress and staff can receive free copies of RAND reports and engage with researchers. To request reports, briefings, or meetings, or to invite researchers to testify, please contact ocr@rand.org.

Learn more at rand.org/congress.

Countering Truth Decay

“Truth Decay,” the diminishing role of facts in U.S. public life, poses a grave threat to evidence-based policymaking and to American democracy. RAND continues to study this phenomenon to learn more about its causes, consequences, and potential solutions.

Explore the research.

The Congressional Relations’ National Security newsletter includes the latest research by RAND’s three national security Federally Funded Research and Development Centers.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. We serve the public interest by helping lawmakers reach informed decisions on the nation’s pressing challenges.
www.rand.org/congress

Follow RAND

Privacy statement

RAND Corporation. 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90401-3208.
RAND® is a registered trademark.