Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has imposed devastating losses on the Russian military and on Ukraine’s military and civilian populations, but both sides have avoided certain escalatory options. However, the fact that Putin has avoided certain escalatory options to date does not mean that he will avoid them in the future.
New RAND research evaluates the potential for further escalation. Six plausible options for further deliberate Russian escalation that would have the potential to fundamentally alter the nature of the conflict were identified. The most likely potential trigger for Russia to escalate is a perception that battlefield losses are threatening the security of its regime.
Members of Congress and staff can receive free copies of RAND reports and engage with researchers. To request reports, briefings, or meetings, or to invite researchers to testify, please contact ocr@rand.org.
“Truth Decay,” the diminishing role of facts in U.S. public life, poses a grave threat to evidence-based policymaking and to American democracy. RAND continues to study this phenomenon to learn more about its causes, consequences, and potential solutions.
The Congressional Relations’ National Security newsletter includes the latest research by RAND’s three national security Federally Funded Research and Development Centers.
