Second Annual Workshop on Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
Tuesday, November 18 – Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Tuesday, 7:00 a.m. – 8:30 p.m. (including dinner)
About the Workshop
Quantitative analysis is often indispensible for making sound policy choices. But when decisionmakers confront today’s conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and often surprising change, they sometimes find that commonly used quantitative methods and tools prove counter-productive or lead them astray.
Typically, quantitative analysis provides decisionmakers with information about the future by making predictions – either point forecasts or best-estimate probability distributions over future states of the world. But such predictions are often wrong. This makes reliance on them dangerous. Moreover, decisionmakers know predictions are often wrong; this can cause them to discount or ignore the crucial information quantitative analysis can provide.
Fortunately, the combination of new information technology and new insights from the decision sciences now enables innovative new means to support decisions under deep uncertainty with quantitative analysis. A growing community of researchers and practitioners are beginning to develop and use these new methods.
This workshop built on the first of its kind held at the World Bank in November 2013. It aimed to foster a community of practice around decision making under deep uncertainty, in order to improve methods and tools, facilitate their use in practice, and ultimately encourage sound decision making in our rapidly changing world. The theme of this year’s workshop was “Engaging Practitioners”, and its were are to:
- Build a community of researchers who can share methods, tools, and best practice for decision making under deep uncertainty;
- Bring practitioners and consumers of research into the community; and
- Foster dialogue among researchers and practitioners about goals, needs, and lessons learned.
This workshop, hosted by the RAND Pardee Center Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, took place November 18 and 19, 2014 at RAND Headquarters in Santa Monica, California.
The workshop included talks by researchers and practitioners, panel discussions, poster sessions, software demonstrations, and gaming. View the program.
The steering committee for this year’s workshop is:
- Nidhi Kalra (co-chair), RAND Corporation
- Robert Lempert (co-chair), RAND Corporation
- Stephane Hallegatte, World Bank
- Laurna Kaatz, Climate Scientist of the Planning Division, Denver Water
- Warren Walker, TU Delft
Director, RAND Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty