Workshop Program

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

TimeSession

7:00 - 8:15 am

Breakfast

8:00 - 8:45 am

1. Welcome and Introductions

Steering committee members will offer brief welcome remarks and review the program. Attendees will introduce themselves using "Vote With Your Feet" exercises.

Moderators:
Nidhi Kalra, Director, Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, RAND
Rob Lempert, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND

8:45 - 9:30 am

2. Overview Plenary

The workshop will kick off with a session on understanding the state of practice in decision support and needs of practitioners trying to manage deep uncertainty in making decisions. A mix of researchers and practitioners will give short plenary talks on their goals for decision making under uncertainty; the current state of practice; and analytical, communication, and other needs.

Moderator:
Rob Lempert, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND

Speakers:
Laurna Kaatz, Climate Scientist, Denver Water
Steven Popper, Senior Economist, RAND

9:30 - 10:00 am

Coffee and Conversation Break

10:00 - 11:00 am

3. Practitioners Panel

Building on the previous session, a panel of practitioners will share their experiences and perspectives in response to questions from their fellow attendees.

Moderator:
Nidhi Kalra, Director, Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, RAND

Panelists:
Pieter Bloemen, Staff Delta Program Commissioner, Dutch Delta Commission
Nancy Donovan, Senior Analyst, Government Accountability Office
Paul Fleming, Manager, Climate Resiliency Group, Seattle Public Utilities
Sergej Mahnovski, Director, Utility of the Future, ConEdison

11:00 - Noon

4. Applications Plenary

Scholar attendees will share their work in applying decision making methods to real world policy problems in different sectors.

Moderator:
Laurna Kaatz, Climate Scientist, Denver Water

Speakers:
David Groves, Senior Policy Analyst, RAND
Marjolijn Hasnoot, Researcher, Deltares
Judy Lawrence, Adjunct Research Associate, New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington

Noon - 1:00 pm

Lunch

1:00 - 3:30 pm

5. Applications Breakout Groups

This session brings together attendees with common interests across sectors to have a lively and constructive discussion that explores how different agencies have used methods of managing deep uncertainty in their planning efforts. Each breakout group will kick off with three sets of presentations on a recent planning or decision-making exercise, each coupled with remarks from a discussant. We will then have a facilitated group discussion to compare and contrast them.
 

Water Resources Breakout Group
Laurna Kaatz, Climate Scientist, Denver Water (Moderator)
Thomas Maher, Southern Nevada Water Authority (Presenter)
David Groves, Senior Policy Analyst, RAND (Discussant)
Ivan Rodriguez Cabanillas, Water and Sanitation Specialist, SEDAPAL (Presenter)
David Purkey, US Water Group Leader, Stockholm Environment Institute (Discussant)
Brandon Goshi, Manager of Water Policy and Strategy, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (Presenter)
Laura Bonzanigo, Research Analyst, the World Bank (Discussant)
 

Flooding and Coastal Resilience Breakout Group
Warren Walker, Professor, Delft University of Technology (Moderator)
Julie Rozenberg, Research Analyst, the World Bank (Presenter)
Natalie Peyronnin, Director of Science Policy, Environmental Defense Fund (Discussant)
Pieter Bloemen, Member, Staff of the Delta Commissioner (Presenter)
Jordan Fischbach, Policy Researcher, RAND (Discussant)
Kate White, Senior Lead for Global and Climate Change, US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources (Presenter)
Jan Kwakkel, Assistant Professor, Delft University of Technology (Discussant)
 

Energy, Infrastructure, and Urban Breakout Group
Stephane Hallegatte, Senior Economist, the World Bank (Moderator)
Sergej Mahnovski, Utility of the Future Director, Con Edison (Presenter)
Paul Kirshen, Research Professor, University of New Hampshire (Discussant)
Costa Samaras, Assistant Professor, Carnegie Mellon University (Presenter)
Steven Popper, Senior Economist, RAND (Discussant)
Gaurav Kapoor, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (Presenter)
Ajay Bhave, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (Discussant)

3:30 - 4:00 pm

Coffee and Conversation Break

4:00 - 5:30 pm

6. Deep Uncertainty Game I

Serious games, which embed a learning goal in the dynamics of game play, offer a compelling opportunity to communicate intellectually and emotionally about deep uncertainty. In this session, we will play Optimalia, a serious game that explores how uncertainty and discord affect team decision-making strategies and the success of team decisions.

Moderator:
Nidhi Kalra, Director, Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, RAND

Facilitator:
Ankur Shah, Visiting Scholar, CIRED

7:00 - 8:30 pm

Workshop Drinks and Dinner

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

TimeSession

8:00 - 8:45 am

7. Practitioners Breakfast Gathering

This breakfast is an opportunity for practitioners of different backgrounds, interests, and sectors to meet informally and share their experiences and goals for decision making under deep uncertainty. Scholars are welcome to attend.

8:45 - 9:45 am

8. Methods Plenary I

In parallel, we will hold the first of two sessions on methodological advancements and studies. This first session will focus on technical and academic talks.

Moderator:
Rob Lempert, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND

Speakers:
Valentina Bosetti, Associate Researcher, Bocconi University
Jan Kwakkel, Assistant Professor, Delft University of Technology
Patrick Reed, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University

9:45 - 10:30 am

9. Methods Discussion

In this session, attendees will discuss methodologies, methodological needs, and how to choose among alternative methods.

Moderator:
Rob Lempert, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND

10:30 - 11:00 am

Coffee and Conversation Break

11:00 am - 12:15 pm

10. Methods Plenary II

This is the second plenary session on methodological advancements and studies.

Moderator:
Stephane Hallegatte, Senior Economist, the World Bank

Speakers:
Henrik Carlsen, Senior Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute
Joseph DeCarolis, Assistant Professor, NC State University
Derek Lemoine, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Arizona

12:15 - 12:30 pm

10. Case Study Poster Briefs

In preparation for the poster session, this plenary will provide each poster presenter 1-2 minutes to briefly summarize his or her poster.

Moderator:
Nidhi Kalra, Director, Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, RAND

Poster Presenters:
Gregory Garner, Postdoctoral Researcher, Pennsylvania State University
Patrick Ray, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Ankur Shah, Visiting Scholar, CIRED
Shmuel Abramzon, Assistant Policy Analyst, RAND; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Ashley Kingsborough, Doctoral Student, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford

12:30 - 2:00 pm

Lunch: Posters, Tools, and Demos

In this poster session, participants will share their work on a wide variety of case studies. Software demos will also be available. Sandwiches will be provided so participants can enjoy lunch while viewing others’ work.

2:00 - 3:30 pm

12. Emerging Issues Plenary and Discussion

This session seeks to explore emerging issues in the field, including communicating about deep uncertainty to policy makers and engaging stakeholders.

Moderator:
Warren Walker, Professor, Delft University of Technology

Speakers:
Rob Lempert, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND
Laura Bonzanigo, Climate Change Group Research Analyst, World Bank
Carly Jerla, Water Resource Engineer, Bureau of Reclamation

3:30 - 4:00 pm

Coffee and Conversation Break

4:00 - 5:30 pm

13. Community Discussion: Next Steps

This discussion is aimed at helping the community of practice organize itself. We will discuss how often the community should meet, how it can collaborate between meetings, ways to expand the community, etc.

Moderators:
Nidhi Kalra, Director, Center for Decision Making Under Uncertainty, RAND
Laurna Kaatz, Climate Scientist, Denver Water

Workshop Officially Adjourns

7:00 - 8:30 pm

14. Deep Uncertainty Game II and Dinner (Optional)

For those participants who will be staying an extra evening and departing on Wednesday, we will play a second game called “Sustainable Delta: A Serious Game about Water Management under Uncertainty.” We will convene over an informal dinner.

Moderator:
Rob Lempert, Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, RAND

Facilitator:
Marjolijn Haasnoot, Researcher, Deltares