Philanthropically Supported Research

The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.

Philanthropic contributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often-controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND's research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence, and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters.

Featured Research

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  Managing International Borders: Balancing Security with the Licit Flow of People and Goods 2018

  Daniel M. Gerstein, Anthony Atler, Aaron C. Davenport, Beth Grill, Amanda Kadlec, William Young

  Border management hinges on the tension between the need to prevent undesirable people and goods from crossing borders and the economic vitality gained through trade and travel. Building on lessons learned from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Niger, and Morocco, this Perspective proposes opportunities to strengthen security while simultaneously improving the flow of licit travelers and goods through national policies and programs.

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  The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise Organised by RAND and Hosted by NUPI 2018

  Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, Alexandra Hall

  This Perspective summarises the results of a table-top exercise that examined factors that could potentially upset Arctic cooperation in the 2020 decade, focusing on overlapping extended continental shelf claims; increased maritime activity; and maritime incidents. This exercise confirmed the solidity of Arctic cooperation, but also identified potential "wild cards" that could make negotiated solutions more difficult to reach.

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  Additive Manufacturing in 2040: Powerful Enabler, Disruptive Threat 2018

  Trevor Johnston, Troy D. Smith, J. Luke Irwin

  Additive manufacturing (AM) — colloquially known as three-dimensional, or 3D, printing — is an emerging technology with potential local and international security implications in the near and long terms. This Perspective — one of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 — offers a new framework for exploring the disruptive dimensions of AM technology, helping to inform which sectors and industries might be the most affected in the future.

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  Speed and Security: Promises, Perils, and Paradoxes of Accelerating Everything 2018

  Kathryn E. Bouskill, Seifu Chonde, William Welser IV

  This Perspective — part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 — reviews the concept of speed and offers key points for policymakers and the public to consider in preparing for the possibilities and implications of a faster future. The authors hypothesize that this iteration of acceleration could be more intense and introduce new security threats, and that its scale and scope could vary across cultural and geographic categories.

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  Strengthening U.S.-ROK Relations in the New Administrations of the United States and South Korea: Findings from an October 2016 RAND Corporation Conference 2018

  Bruce W. Bennett, Booseung Chang

  This summary outlines presentations and discussions from an October 2016 conference held by the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy and the Sejong Institute on strengthening relations between the United States and the Republic of Korea, with a focus on such key issues as regional security interests and economic relations.

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  Discontinuities and Distractions — Rethinking Security for the Year 2040: Findings from a RAND Corporation Workshop 2018

  Andrew R. Hoehn, Andrew Parasiliti, Sonni Efron, Steven Strongin

  This report is based on a workshop that focused on how to better define, anticipate, and address continuities (trends that are unsurprising) and discontinuities (developments that are not considered but prove consequential enough to change history). It also addresses anticipated changes in warfare, information insecurity, challenges to privacy, and the problems of governance in liberal democracies.

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  What to Do with the Selective Service System? Historical Lessons and Future Posture 2018

  Bernard D. Rostker

  Since the end of conscription in 1973, the question of what to do with the Selective Service System has been asked again and again. This perspective reviews the history of registration since the advent of the all-volunteer force, then examines the current registration program and offers alternatives.

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  Security 2040: Perils and Promise Over the Near Horizon 2018

  Describes the Security 2040 project, which included a series of workshops examining possible outcomes for the future regarding the influence of advanced computing and artificial intelligence on nuclear security; the acceleration of technology, decisionmaking, and weapons systems; the disruption that 3D printing technology poses; and the implications of the culture and mindset of the millennial generation.

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  How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War? 2018

  Edward Geist, Andrew J. Lohn

  RAND researchers held a series of workshops examining possible outcomes regarding the influence of advanced computing and artificial intelligence (AI) on nuclear security. The culmination of those workshops, this Perspective — one of a series that examines critical security challenges in 2040 — places the intersection of AI and nuclear war in historical context and characterizes the range of expert opinions.

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  Understanding Deterrence 2018

  Michael J. Mazarr

  Deterrence has again become a principal theme in U.S. defense policy. This short essay draws on a range of RAND Corporation studies to revisit fundamental deterrence concepts and principles, emphasizing that deterrence and dissuasion must be conceived primarily as an effort to shape the thinking of a potential aggressor. Any strategy must begin with an assessment of the interests, motives, and imperatives of the potential aggressor.

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  U.S. Policy in Asia — Perspectives for the Future: Proceedings from a RAND Corporation Conference in Early 2017 2018

  Rafiq Dossani, Scott W. Harold

  These proceedings summarize the findings of a conference on U.S. policy in Asia titled Pivot to Asia? U.S. Policy in Asia Under the Trump Administration, which was held at the RAND Corporation in January 2017. The conference's objectives were to examine the arenas of U.S.–Asia engagement, provide an understanding of the outcomes of past interaction, and make the case for the terms of future engagement.

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  A Preliminary Assessment of Indonesia's Maritime Security Threats and Capabilities 2018

  Lyle J. Morris, Giacomo Persi Paoli

  In recent years, Indonesia has re-conceptualised its identity as a maritime nation whose livelihood both derives from and depends upon the sea, evidenced by President Joko Widodo's Global Maritime Fulcrum and Sea Policy proposals. This study identifies the threats and priority areas for Indonesia in the maritime security domain as a first step in an overall assessment of capability requirements and gaps

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  Is Climate Restoration an Appropriate Climate Policy Goal? 2018

  Robert J. Lempert, Giacomo Marangoni, Klaus Keller, Jessica Duke

  This report offers an initial exploration of the concept of climate restoration — that is, approaches that seek to return atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to preindustrial levels within one to two generations. Authors explore the conditions under which it might be possible to achieve various climate restoration goals. This report also examines near-term actions that might help manage associated risks.

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  Low-Cost Options for Airborne Delivery of Contraband into North Korea 2018

  Richard Mason

  Various activist groups in South Korea are looking for improvements in the balloons they use to carry political, religious, and humanitarian materials across the border into North Korea. This report reviews open-source reporting to assess the technical state of balloons and drones as means of delivering material into North Korea and assesses plausible technological developments that might improve the airborne delivery of contraband.

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  Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition 2018

  Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Gulrez Shah Azhar, Michele Abbott, Robert J. Lempert

  Participatory modeling, using causal loop diagramming (CLD), was employed to understand the potential effects of climate change on public health in Long Beach, California. Stakeholders constructed CLDs depicting the impacts of climate change on public health to identify public health issues; examine connections between climate change and public health; and identify feedback loops to understand how climate change impacts public health.

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  What's the Buzz? The Drones Are Here 2018

  Andrew J. Lohn, Timothy R. Gulden, Jia Xu, Therese Jones, Kenneth Kuhn, William Welser IV

  This brief examines the developing technology for using drones to deliver packages and attempts to identify the societal impacts, including potential effects on aerial congestion, noise, privacy, and other outcomes.

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  The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States 2018

  This report synthesizes the available scientific evidence on the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes. Based on this synthesis, the authors highlight policies whose effects are better supported by evidence and areas where more and better information could contribute to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

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  The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts 2018

  Andrew R. Morral, Terry L. Schell, Margaret Tankard

  This report, part of the Gun Policy in America initiative, describes the results of a survey in which gun policy experts estimated the likely effects of 15 gun-related policies on 12 societally important outcomes. Researchers use the results to identify where experts agree and disagree and where disagreements concern facts about the effects of gun policies that could possibly be resolved with better scientific information.

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  Gun Policy Comparison Tool: Predicted Effects of U.S. Gun Policies Based on a Survey of Policy Experts 2018

  Part of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative, this tool allows users to explore how outcomes would change in each state and nationally if different combinations of gun policies were enacted or repealed nationwide.

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  Neither Deportation nor Amnesty: An Alternative for the Immigration Debate Building a Bridge Across the Deportation–Amnesty Divide 2018

  Douglas C. Ligor

  This Perspective examines the debate over individuals present in the United States without lawful immigration status. The political, legal, and policy questions surrounding this population have made progress challenging. We propose that minor changes in existing immigration law offer a compromise solution for millions, averting the necessity for either side of the immigration debate to abandon their principles.

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  Incentivizing Employers to Hire Ex-Offenders: What Policies Are Most Effective? 2018

  Priscillia Hunt, Rosanna Smart, Lisa Jonsson, Flavia Tsang

  To inform efforts aimed at improving employment rates and earnings potential for ex-offenders, RAND researchers examined employer preferences of policy options designed to incentivize employment of individuals with felony criminal records

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  Truth Decay: A Threat to Policymaking and Democracy 2018

  Jennifer Kavanagh, Michael D. Rich

  RAND has begun to investigate the causes and consequences of the phenomenon it calls Truth Decay — the diminishing role of facts and data in American public life — and invites others to join in continued research to help counteract it.

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  Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life 2018

  Jennifer Kavanagh, Michael D. Rich

  Political and civil discourse in the United States is characterized by "Truth Decay," defined as increasing disagreement about facts, a blurring of the line between opinion and fact, an increase in the relative volume of opinion compared with fact, and lowered trust in formerly respected sources of factual information. This report explores the causes and wide-ranging consequences of Truth Decay and proposes strategies for further action.

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  Breaking Down Barriers: Experiments into Policies That Might Incentivize Employers to Hire Ex-Offenders 2018

  Priscillia Hunt, Rosanna Smart, Lisa Jonsson, Flavia Tsang

  The rate of criminal punishment in the United States has had far-reaching economic consequences, in large part because people with criminal records are marginalized within the labor market. To inform policies and programs aimed at improving employment rates for ex-offenders, we examined employer preferences regarding policy options targeted to incentivize hiring individuals with one nonviolent felony conviction.

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  Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans? 2018

  Brian Michael Jenkins

  This paper looks at the history of kidnapping over the past 45 years to examine whether the U.S. policy of not paying ransom to terrorists holding Americans hostage is an effective deterrent. Earlier research found little empirical evidence to support the assertion. More-recent research also casts doubt on the deterrence value, although one study says that U.S. ransom payments would have prompted more kidnappings.

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