Demographics and National Security of Asia

Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

Demographic change is an increasingly important area of focus for policymakers concerned with national security. Nowhere is the intersection of demographics and national security of greater interest globally than in Asia, owing to the steep decline in East Asian countries’ fertility during the present century. Japan is widely recognized to be a country that has progressed well into an aging society, with high life expectancy, a low birth rate, a growing elderly population, a high old-age dependency ratio, and a shrinking workforce. China’s economic rise created an unexpected competitor to the United States, enabling it to revive its ambitions of becoming a great power. Now, its declining population is raising questions about its viability as a geopolitical rival. Two decades after China’s economic rise, India’s economic surge appears to have the same effect on its ambitions. This, too, may get tempered if its population follows the East Asian trend or it cannot capitalize on its current state of the demographic dividend.

RAND researchers are studying the demographic trends for China, India, and Japan through 2050 and their implications for U.S. national security policy. These are the three countries most consequential to U.S. interests in Asia. Each is at a different phase of demographic transition, which has implications for how they view national security—particularly for how resources are to be allocated and partnerships will be formed.

Each country provides a unique context for considering how demographic trends will impact national security and what policies may be effective to slow down the negative trends.

The project’s approach to comparative analysis:

  1. Our research aims to understand and relate each country's demographic trends through 2050 to its national security policies. We are mainly focused on identifying any significant economic and defense security risks that may arise from these trends and their implications for strategic planning in policy development.
  2. Examine the inferences of the three-country analysis for other parts of the world.
  3. Explore what United States policies can best support demographic transitions and maintain peace and stability in Asia.

This ongoing project will produce valuable research as it progresses, offering new insights and shaping future policy decisions.