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Asia-Pacific Research Forum

The Asia-Pacific Research Forum is an informal community of interest supported by the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy and Defense and Political Sciences Department to give Asia-Pacific scholars at RAND a platform to share resources, information, and ideas, as well as to create a channel for external stakeholders and thought leaders interested in Asia-Pacific issues to access relevant RAND research, researchers, and events.

Recent Publications and Events

Commentary
Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?
Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett, Soo W. Kim @mllesookim

The end of the Korean War and peace on the peninsula are no more likely to occur as the result of a peace agreement than has North Korean denuclearization occurred as the result of multiple denuclearization agreements. Ultimately, North Korean objectives matter, and real peace does not appear to be part of those objectives.
Commentary
Japan and Dynamic Force Employment
Jeffrey W. Hornung

In April, the United States ended a program that maintained a rotational bomber force to the U.S. territory of Guam. While the removal of a permanent bomber presence in the region has caused some in Japan to worry, U.S. commitment to Japan's defense shows no sign of changing nor does America's deterrent capability.
Commentary
China Just Botched a Monumental Opportunity with the Philippines
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

China hailed Philippines President Duterte's announcement in February of an end to the U.S.-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months as evidence the United States was losing the great power competition with China in the Indo-Pacific. But on June 2, Duterte decided to postpone the VFA termination, breathing new life into the decades-long agreement.
Commentary
As COVID-19 Makes Clear, U.S. Allies in the Indo-Pacific, Not the Money They Pay to Host U.S. Forces, Are the Value Proposition
Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold

The great value the United States extracts from its alliances with Japan and South Korea is not the money they provide to offset the costs of hosting U.S. forces; the value is the deep and abiding alliances themselves and the liberal, democratic, rule of law market economies and societies to which they link the United States.
Journal Article
What China Wants in South Asia
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

China claims to have purely benign intentions in South Asia. A closer look, however, at Beijing's actions in the region strongly suggests that it is assiduously securing its national interests, which are likely detrimental to most if not all South Asian nations
Blog
Air Travel Data to Predict COVID Risk, Heatwave Planning, Caregiver Time Off: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on using air travel data to predict COVID risk, planning for a heat wave during the pandemic, why caregivers need time off, and more.
Commentary
Should the U.S. Move to Strengthen Ties with Taiwan?
Jeffrey W. Hornung, Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold

The contrasts in behavior between Taiwan and China during the COVID-19 pandemic show why it could be critical that U.S. policymakers consider advancing U.S.-Taiwan cooperation to enhance Taiwan's security, protect U.S. interests, and preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Commentary
For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat
Scott W. Harold @ScottWHarold, Soo W. Kim @mllesookim

Would Kim Jong Un's death improve U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? Maybe not. North Korea's advancing nuclear and other military capabilities are driving an expanded set of problems, and while Kim's sudden death might constitute a destabilizing factor for the regime, the available evidence suggests the regime itself is the problem.
Commentary
Spending Smart or Spending Big: The Value of Systematic Assessments of Weapons Procurement
Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini

Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and inevitable economic difficulties, national governments should be encouraged to weigh their military requirements in a more cost-effective manner. Countries need to think strategically about the life cycle costs of equipment, not just the original purchase price.
Commentary
Is the '1992 Consensus' Fading Away in the Taiwan Strait?
Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

For nearly 30 years, China has routinely touted Taiwan's recognition of the 1992 Consensus as the sole basis for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. However, the consensus may hold less relevance for both sides today than in the past.

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