Asia-Pacific Research Forum

Blog

Immigration Policy, the Black-White Wealth Gap, ChatGPT: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the challenges facing U.S. immigration policy, what it would take to close America's Black-white wealth gap, risks and opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, more.

Commentary

Beyond the 'Mine Shaft Gap': Navigating Threat Perceptions in the Sino-American Rivalry

In “Dr. Strangelove,” the “mine shaft gap” was an astute satirical concept that reflected the mindset that any perceived disadvantage between the United States and the Soviet Union posed an existential threat. Though fictional, this kind of calculation is not unheard of in real-life, modern-day thinking. Shrewd discernment could help avoid it as the United States pursues its national security objectives.

Christopher A. Mouton

Commentary

What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

Raphael S. Cohen

Commentary

Upcoming Presidential Election Will Clarify Taiwan's China Policy

Until the Taiwanese presidential election next January, China, the United States, and many other countries will be watching Taiwan with bated breath. Across the Indo-Pacific region and the world, the hope would simply be that no matter who is elected, peace and stability continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

Testimony

Chinese Strategy in the Pacific and Implications for the United States

In recent years, Chinese attention has increasingly included Oceania. What has Chinese strategy been in the Freely Associated States and U.S. territories in the Pacific? What are some policy recommendations for Congress and the U.S. government to consider going forward?

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

Commentary

Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough

The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

Report

Deterring Threats from Uncertain Origins: Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia

“Havana Syndrome,” an unexplained illness first experienced by U.S. diplomatic personnel in Cuba in 2016, illustrates the challenge of responding to national security threats when those threats—as well as the actors and methods behind them—are ambiguous.

Daniel Egel, Gabrielle Tarini @gabbytarini, et al.

Commentary

Defending Taiwan with Artificial Reefs

Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is arguably the most important defense problem of the next few decades. Artificial reefs could help to deter China simply by waiting to impale any potential invasion force.

Scott Savitz

Research Brief

The Aftermath of a Great Power War

A review of historical great power wars shows that prewar predictions about who would fight, how long the war would last, and how the world would look afterward were often wrong. It's important to understand what the outcomes of different conflicts could look like and how to better prepare for them.

Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe, Bryan Frederick, et al.

Report

Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War

RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term scenarios describing a war with China or Russia, and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.

Miranda Priebe @MirandaPriebe, Bryan Frederick, et al.