CAPP Publications

Recent Publications

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  What Deters and Why: The State of Deterrence in Korea and the Taiwan Strait 2021

  Michael J. Mazarr, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Timothy R. Heath, Derek Eaton

  As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence. In particular, RAND researchers apply the established framework to U.S. efforts to deter North Korean aggression against South Korea and U.S. efforts to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan.

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  A History of the Third Offset, 2014–2018 2021

  Gian Gentile, Michael Shurkin, Alexandra T. Evans, Michelle Grisé, Mark Hvizda, Rebecca Jensen

  The authors document the history of the Third Offset, a U.S. strategy that focused on the potential of technology to offset Chinese and Russian military advances and that shaped the 2018 National Defense Strategy. The authors describe efforts to effect change within the U.S. Department of Defense and interview key defense leaders who did so, providing an example of how to bring about organizational change in large military institutions.

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  Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East: Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments (Executive Summary) 2021

  Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades

  In this summary, researchers assess the advantages and trade-offs of a reimagined Middle East strategy where strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that prioritizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater development. They analyze long-standing U.S. interests and relationships with partners and develop an alternative framework in which the challenge of Iran is one among several factors that should be considered.

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  Reimagining U.S. Strategy in the Middle East: Sustainable Partnerships, Strategic Investments 2021

  Dalia Dassa Kaye, Linda Robinson, Jeffrey Martini, Nathan Vest, Ashley L. Rhoades

  Researchers assess the advantages and trade-offs of a reimagined Middle East strategy where strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that prioritizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater growth and development. They analyze long-standing U.S. interests and relationships with central partners and develop an alternative framework in which the Iranian challenge is one among several factors that should be considered.

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  U.S. Allied and Partner Support for Taiwan: Responses to a Chinese Attack on Taiwan and Potential U.S. Taiwan Policy Changes 2021

  Bonny Lin

  Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on February 18, 2021.

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  Factors Shaping China's Use of Force Calculations Against Taiwan 2021

  Mark Cozad

  Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on February 18, 2021.

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  Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint 2021

  Miranda Priebe, Bryan Rooney, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jeffrey Martini, Stephanie Pezard

  Some U.S. policymakers are interested in a new approach to the U.S. role in the world: a realist grand strategy of restraint, under which the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors explain how U.S. policies toward key regions would change under such a strategy, identify unanswered questions, and offer next steps for developing policy implications.

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  Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia 2021

  Jonah Blank

  The U.S. Department of Defense's 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the importance of working with regional allies and partners in order to manage China's rise as a strategic competitor to the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. In this country-level report in a series, the author examines the potential for, and potential impediments to, partnering more closely with Indonesia.

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  Allies Growing Closer: Japan–Europe Security Ties in the Age of Strategic Competition 2020

  Jeffrey W. Hornung

  Some of the United States' most powerful and trustworthy allies are its European partners and Japan. This report presents the results of a RAND Corporation study examining how Japan, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and three European states — the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — are increasingly cooperating in the security domain amid growing strategic competition. The author provides recommendations for fostering partner efforts.

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  Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Australia and New Zealand 2020

  Michael S. Chase, Jennifer D. P. Moroney

  In this country-level report in a series, the authors assess the perspectives of Australia and New Zealand as they implement their responses to China's more assertive foreign and security policy behavior in the Indo-Pacific and to a more competitive U.S.-China relationship. The project also examines how the United States can improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain its advantage in long-term competition with China.

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  Command and Control in U.S. Naval Competition with China 2020

  Kimberly Jackson, Andrew Scobell, Stephen Webber, Logan Ma

  The authors explore how command and control (C2) is exercised in the U.S. Navy and China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, how service culture affects C2 concepts, and how these C2 constructs might support or challenge each nation's shift to new maritime missions. The report characterizes common themes and identifies outstanding questions about the ways that cultural and organizational factors influence China's defense choices more broadly.

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  Japan's Potential Contributions in an East China Sea Contingency 2020

  Jeffrey W. Hornung

  In the Indo-Pacific region, the alliance the United States has with Japan is arguably its most important. If a high-end contingency erupts in the East China Sea and the United States becomes engaged in major conventional combat operations with China, what roles can and might Japan play? This report assesses the strengths and limitations of Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF), as well as restrictions on SDF use of force ingrained in Japanese law.

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  China's Propensity for Innovation in the 21st Century: Identifying Indicators of Future Outcomes 2020

  Steven W. Popper, Marjory S. Blumenthal, Eugeniu Han, Sale Lilly, Lyle J. Morris, Caroline S. Wagner, Christopher A. Eusebi, Brian G. Carlson, Alice Shih

  In this report, the authors examine the propensity within China's innovation system to realize its potential as an innovating nation: What is the balance of systemic forces that incline toward seeing that the innovation assets China possesses lead to innovation outcomes? They lay out a conceptual framework for capturing the major activities, interactions, and flows that give rise to technological innovations.

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  Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Study Overview and Conclusions 2020

  Bonny Lin, Michael S. Chase, Jonah Blank, Cortez A. Cooper III, Derek Grossman, Scott W. Harold, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Lyle J. Morris, Logan Ma, Paul Orner, et al.

  In long-term strategic competition with China, how effectively the United States works with allies and partners will be critical to determining U.S. success. The authors of this report define U.S.-China competition for influence and assess relative U.S.-Chinese influence in nine countries across the Indo-Pacific to gain insight into how the United States could work more effectively with allies and partners in Southeast Asia and beyond.

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  Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Singapore 2020

  Cortez A. Cooper III, Michael S. Chase

  In this country-level report in a series, the authors assess the impact of the changes in China's strategic behavior and U.S.-China relations over the past decade on Singapore in terms of its security policies and relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. The project also examines how the United States can improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain its advantage in long-term competition with China.

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  Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Vietnam 2020

  Derek Grossman

  This country-level report in a series explores Vietnam's perspective on rising U.S.-China competition. The report evaluates how Vietnam is responding to U.S. and Chinese influence in diplomatic and political, economic, and security and military domains, especially as U.S.-China competition grows across the Indo-Pacific and globally. The report also addresses the prospects of enhancing U.S.-Vietnam relations to counter rising Chinese coercion.

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  Regional Responses to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific: Japan 2020

  Scott W. Harold

  America's enduring alliance with Japan not only is the cornerstone of U.S. force posture in the Indo-Pacific region, but also magnifies and bolsters U.S. influence across that vast swath of territory. In this report, the author assesses the prospects for deepening U.S.-Japan alliance cooperation and coordination in Southeast Asia through 2030 to compete with China.

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  Engagement with North Korea: A Portfolio-Based Approach to Diplomacy 2020

  Rafiq Dossani

  Following the failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization negotiations, the author proposed and tested an approach to negotiations, called the portfolio method, that addresses the reasons for past failures in an effort to develop action plans that will successfully engage all sides. The author assembled a team of experts, who went through the steps for portfolio creation and provided a review.

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  People's Liberation Army Operational Concepts 2020

  Edmund J. Burke, Kristen Gunness, Cortez A. Cooper III, Mark Cozad

  In this report, the authors assess China's current military theory, strategy, and guiding principles, and they also delineate notional doctrinal or operational concepts that likely underpin People's Liberation Army military planning. This report is intended as a primer for U.S. Department of Defense strategists and planners as they conduct campaign planning and formulate responses to China's evolving military strategy and doctrine.

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  Something Old, Something New: Continuity and Change in China's Foreign Policy 2020

  Andrew Scobell

  Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on September 9, 2020.

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  Countering Violent Extremism in the Philippines: A Snapshot of Current Challenges and Responses 2020

  Ashley L. Rhoades, Todd C. Helmus

  The threat of terrorism and violent extremism in the Philippines—especially in Mindanao, the Philippines' second-largest island—is severe and persistent. In this report, RAND researchers provide a snapshot of the terrorist and extremist threats facing the Philippines and the countering violent extremism efforts that the Philippine government and nongovernmental agencies have undertaken in response.

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  Promoting Peace as the Antidote to Violent Extremism: Evaluation of a Philippines-Based Tech Camp and Peace Promotion Fellowship 2020

  Ashley L. Rhoades, Todd C. Helmus, James V. Marrone, Victoria M. Smith, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron

  Equal Access International (EAI)'s countering violent extremism (CVE)–themed programming involves training local civil society members in Mindanao to design and implement locally based CVE campaigns. This report contains an evaluation of and recommendations from a set of EAI tech camps and fellowships in the Philippines. The authors of this report include research from a study of EAI CVE radio programming on Mindanao.

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  Countering Violent Extremism in Indonesia: Using an Online Panel Survey to Assess a Social Media Counter-Messaging Campaign 2020

  Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, James V. Marrone, Todd C. Helmus, Danielle Schlang

  This report presents the results of an evaluation designed to assess the effects of countering violent extremism–themed social media content used in a campaign to promote tolerance, freedom of speech, and rejection of violence in Indonesia. The campaign was partially successful in its appeal to the intended audience, its communication of its message, and its positive effects on certain attitudes. However, there were also negative effects.

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  Chinese Views of Big Data Analytics 2020

  Derek Grossman, Christian Curriden, Logan Ma, Lindsey Polley, J.D. Williams, Cortez A. Cooper III

  Chinese primary-source materials indicate that China is aggressively working toward becoming a global leader in big data analytics as part of its plan to achieve great power status. The authors of this report assessed a variety of primary sources, including specific ministry-level plans and guidance, and pinpointed how Beijing is using big data analytics to survey its domestic population and enhance its military capabilities.

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  North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use 2020

  John V. Parachini, Scott W. Harold, Gian Gentile, Derek Grossman, Leah Heejin Kim, Logan Ma, Michael J. Mazarr, Linda Robinson

  The authors examine (1) the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes — China, Vietnam, and Cuba — to forecast why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula; and (3) what might lead North Korea to use nuclear weapons.