CAPP Publications

Recent Publications

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  Disrupting the Chinese Military in Competition and Low-Intensity Conflict: An Analysis of People's Liberation Army Missions, Tasks, and Potential Vulnerabilities 2023

  Timothy R. Heath, Eric Robinson, Christian Curriden, Derek Grossman, Sale Lilly, Daniel Egel, Gabrielle Tarini

  Expanding on prior research, the authors identify the tasks that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would likely be assigned by Chinese leaders to achieve strategic goals both in peacetime competition with the United States and in a hypothetical low-intensity conflict. They then analyze potential vulnerabilities in the PLA’s execution of those tasks and how the United States could leverage those vulnerabilities to disrupt China’s strategic goals.

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  China's Global Energy Interconnection: Exploring the Security Implications of a Power Grid Developed and Governed by China 2023

  Fiona Quimbre, Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Henri van Soest, Jon Schmid, Howard J. Shatz, Timothy R. Heath, Michal Meidan, Andrea Wullner, Paul Deane, James Glynn, et al.

  The authors of this report demystify the potential global security implications associated with the Global Energy Interconnection—China’s important but poorly understood initiative that aims to connect renewable energy producers to consumers through ultra-high-voltage power transmission lines spanning continents and smart technologies.

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  Enhancing Security in a Changing Arctic 2023

  Abbie Tingstad

  Testimony submitted to the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security on November 29, 2023.

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  A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead: An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command 2023

  Michelle E. Miro, Flannery Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Karishma V. Patel, Carlos Calvo Hernandez

  The first in a series focused on climate change and the security environment, this report presents analysis on how climate change will affect the physical environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility in 2035, 2050, and 2070. The report highlights locations that are projected to experience the biggest changes, as well as those that are most exposed to climate hazards.

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  Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command 2023

  Nathan Chandler, Jeffrey Martini, Karen M. Sudkamp, Maggie Habib, Benjamin J. Sacks, Zohan Hasan Tariq

  This report presents an analysis of the pathways from climate change to conflict and how that relationship is unfolding in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR). The analysis is based on a semistructured literature review of causal pathways from climate change to conflict and three case studies of climate-related conflict in the CENTCOM AOR.

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  Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility 2023

  Howard J. Shatz, Karen M. Sudkamp, Jeffrey Martini, Mohammad Ahmadi, Derek Grossman, Kotryna Jukneviciute

  A variety of potential conflicts in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, ranging from civil unrest to intrastate wars and even to interstate wars, could be related to climate change. Climate change could also exacerbate existing security challenges or create additional ones that generate new requirements in the theater. How U.S. competitors and adversaries might exploit these developments is an important issue for security planners.

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  Improving Conflict-Phase Access: Identifying U.S. Policy Levers 2023

  Bryan Frederick, Kristen Gunness, Gabrielle Tarini, Andrew Stravers, Michael J. Mazarr, Emily Ellinger, Jonah Blank, Shawn Cochran, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Lyle J. Morris, et al.

  Ensuring military access to the territory of allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific in the event of a future conflict with China is a critical concern for U.S. policymakers. By looking at five specific allies and partners, the authors explore how states are likely to approach access requests, what factors influence such decisions, and what peacetime policy levers the United States might have to increase the likelihood of access in conflict.

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  The United States and China—Designing a Shared Future: The Potential for Track 2 Initiatives to Design an Agenda for Coexistence 2023

  Amanda Kerrigan, Lydia Grek, Michael J. Mazarr

  The U.S.-China rivalry is intensifying, causing mistrust and stifling the impacts of Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues. The authors of this report review the status of U.S.-China relations, the roster of Track 2 dialogues, the record of such dialogues, and the criteria for successful Track 2 initiatives. They conclude that a new Track 2 effort focused on long-term coexistence is needed to stem the decline in U.S.-China relations.

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  An Assessment of U.S.-Allied Nations' Industrial Bases in Quantum Technology 2023

  Edward Parker, Richard Silberglitt, Daniel Gonzales, Natalia Henriquez Sanchez, Justin W. Lee, Lindsay Rand, Jon Schmid, Peter Dortmans, Christopher A. Eusebi

  This report presents an assessment of the quantum technology industrial bases of several U.S.-allied nations that are major players in the development of quantum technology, beginning with a global look and then focusing on the quantum industrial bases of Australia, the UK, Germany, and Japan. It gives recommendations for how the United States can promote strong ties with its allies in quantum technology research and development.

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  Report on the Arctic Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces 2023

  Abbie Tingstad, Scott Savitz, Benjamin J. Sacks, Yuliya Shokh, Irina A. Chindea, Scott R. Stephenson, Michael T. Wilson, James G. Kallimani, Kristin Van Abel, Stephanie Pezard, et al.

  This report summarizes the findings of research on U.S. and other armed forces' capabilities in the Arctic, the extent to which non-U.S. entities are operating where U.S. forces cannot, and how those operations might affect U.S. national interests. The authors found that the United States is lacking in capacity and, to a lesser extent, capability and that this creates risk for U.S. security.

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  Alternative Futures for Digital Infrastructure: Insights and Considerations for the Department of Defense 2023

  Julia Brackup, Sarah Harting, Daniel Gonzales, Brandon Corbin

  A competition for digital infrastructure (DI) is underway between the United States and China, which has implications for military forces and operations that rely on this infrastructure in competition and conflict. This report summarizes an alternative futures analysis of how the global DI could evolve out to 2050 and the military implications of those futures for the United States and China.

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  Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance 2023

  Bruce W. Bennett, Kang Choi, Cortez A. Cooper III, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Myong-Hyun Go, Gregory S. Jones, Du-Hyeogn Cha, Uk Yang

  As the North Korean nuclear weapon threat has grown, many in the Republic of Korea (ROK) do not feel assured by the U.S. nuclear umbrella. They favor ROK development of nuclear weapons, a potential disaster for the ROK and the United States. The authors propose options for strengthening that assurance, including enhancing strategic clarity, coercing the North to freeze its nuclear weapons, and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.

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  Development as a Tool of Economic Statecraft: A Net Assessment of U.S. and Chinese Approaches 2023

  Eric Robinson, Alexandra T. Evans, Raymond Kuo, Howard J. Shatz, Andrew Stravers, Stephanie Stewart

  In this report, the authors conduct a net assessment of U.S. and Chinese development assistance and cooperation. The authors describe each country's differing approaches to economic engagement with developing countries and conduct a data-driven comparison to identify strategic asymmetries that might present opportunities for the United States to better compete with China for relationships and influence in the developing world.

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  Rethinking Jointness? The Strategic Value of Jointness in Major Power Competition and Conflict 2023

  Mark Cozad, Maria McCollester, Jonathan Welch, Matthew Fay

  This report examines whether the assumption that jointness—the combination of cross-service activities, capabilities, operations, and organizations that enhances and increases the capabilities of individual services beyond their organic contributions—is valuable to the U.S. military is correct. Understanding which aspects of jointness are most valuable and why can help the Department of Defense compete more effectively against its adversaries.

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  A Framework of Deterrence in Space Operations 2023

  Stephen J. Flanagan, Nicholas Martin, Alexis A. Blanc, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

  This report presents a framework on the nature and requirements of deterrence in space operations. Drawing on lessons from nuclear and cyber and selected national approaches to space deterrence, it presents three archetypes for space deterrence. It concludes that a comprehensive approach to space deterrence is likely to be most successful and should be tailored to address the distinct risk calculus and informational needs of various adversaries.

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  A Brief Overview of Emerging Vaccine Technologies for Pandemic Preparedness 2023

  Annette Prieto, Robert Huang, Christopher A. Eusebi, Melissa Shostak

  Over the past two decades, pandemic preparedness has proven to be critical to health, national, and economic security. This report characterizes trends and strategic implications associated with specific aspects of pandemic preparedness in the United States, China, and Russia. The authors discuss both technical and policy aspects of vaccine concepts and technologies, broad-spectrum medical countermeasures, and immunization facilitation.

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  A night-time lighting analysis of Tibet's prisons and detention centres 2023

  Using night-time lighting data, this study looks at the potential changes in the construction, growth or decline of specific detention centres across Tibet that may not be visible using overhead satellite imagery alone.

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  Inflection Point: How to Reverse the Erosion of U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence 2023

  David A. Ochmanek, Anna Dowd, Stephen J. Flanagan, Andrew R. Hoehn, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Michael J. Lostumbo, Michael J. Mazarr

  The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States, its allies, and its key partners are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reconstituted forces and China's economic takeoff and concomitant military modernization. This report offers ideas on how to address shortcomings in defense preparations.

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  Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan 2023

  Jeffrey W. Hornung, Miranda Priebe, Bryan Rooney, Patrick Hulme, Nobuhiko Tamaki, Yu Inagaki

  Debates about options for future U.S. policy toward Taiwan tend to focus on how each would affect China's calculus on invading the island, but another important consideration is how U.S. allies in the region would respond. The authors of this report examine how Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines would react to the United States signaling either an increase or a decrease in its support of Taiwan.

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  Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Africa 2023

  Marta Kepe, Elina Treyger, Christian Curriden, Raphael S. Cohen, Kurt Klein, Ashley L. Rhoades, Erik Schuh, Nathan Vest

  This report — part of a four-volume series — explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Africa; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.

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  Preparing for Great Power Conflict: How Experience Shapes U.S. and Chinese Military Training 2023

  Mark Cozad, Keith Gierlack, Cortez A. Cooper III, Susan G. Straus, Sale Lilly, Stephanie Anne Pillion, Kelly Elizabeth Eusebi

  The authors examine how direct combat experience has shaped the way the U.S. military approaches training and how indirect experience outside combat has shaped the approach of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The authors then consider the extent to which training and operational model adaptations in both militaries have kept pace with an evolving global context and prepared the U.S. military and PLA for great power conflict.

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  Developing Enabling Environments for Women's Access to Education and Vocational Opportunities: A Case Study of Policy Change Efforts Led by UN Women's Second Chance Education Programme in India 2023

  Rebecca L. Wolfe, Elaine Lin Wang, Benjamin K. Master

  This case study traces the development of two efforts by UN Women's Second Chance Education Programme (SCE) in India to support policy changes that improve women's access to education and vocational opportunities. SCE India engaged stakeholders, embedded technical consultants within partner agencies, supported policy enactment by facilitating productive conversations, and promoted structures to institutionalize proposed reforms.

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  Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China? Assessing Strengths and Vulnerabilities in a Potential Conflict 2023

  Timothy R. Heath, Sale Lilly, Eugeniu Han

  In this report, the authors develop a framework for assessing a country's capacity to resist a large-scale attack. The authors then use that framework to assess Taiwan's capacity to withstand such an attack by China for at least 90 days. An accurate assessment of Taiwan's ability to sustain a defense could help U.S. decisionmakers and planners better anticipate and respond in such a situation.

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  Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America 2023

  Irina A. Chindea, Elina Treyger, Raphael S. Cohen, Christian Curriden, Kurt Klein, Carlos Sanchez, Holly Gramkow, Khrystyna Holynska

  This report — part of a four-volume series — explores where and how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Latin America; what kinds of interests they have in the continent; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States, particularly the Department of the Air Force.

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  Scientific and Technological Flows Between the United States and China 2023

  Jon Schmid, Nathaniel Edenfield

  Strategic competition between the United States and China colors how bilateral science and technology collaboration is interpreted in the United States. The objective of this report is to quantify and describe three types of scientific and technological flows between the United States and China to help assess the net effect of these types of flows on U.S. national security.