China's Overseas Military Diplomacy and Implications for U.S. Interests 2023
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 26, 2023.
CAPP Publications
Recent Publications
-
-
How Can the Mobility Air Forces Better Support Adaptive Basing? Appendixes A–C, Supporting Analyses of Adaptive Basing, Soft Power, and Historical Case Studies 2023
The U.S. Air Force is exploring adaptive basing concepts to reduce the vulnerability of U.S. forces and to preserve critical combat capabilities in highly contested environments. These appendixes provide in-depth discussion of the concepts, a detailed examination of the different types of power (hard, soft, and sharp) an adversary could exert on potential allies to limit U.S. base access, and historical case studies from World War II.
-
China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security 2022
This report assesses China's strategy and diplomacy in the Arctic and the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities there for the regional rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security. The authors scrutinize Chinese activities that have been problematic in other parts of the world and assess whether they could also arise in the Arctic. The authors also recommend mitigative U.S. actions.
-
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts 2022
This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China. The authors developed three concepts to guide the Army's ground force role in the theater, offering the essential architecture of basing, information, relationships, and flexible combat power needed to make the joint force effective.
-
Time for Resilient Critical Material Supply Chain Policies 2022
Supply chains lacking diversity and dependent on foreign inputs are especially vulnerable to the risks of disruption. This report presents an exploratory analysis summarizing the state of critical material supply chains — those of rare earth elements and lithium-ion batteries — and policy options for the U.S. Department of Defense to prevent or mitigate the effects of supply disruptions on economic and national security.
-
Implications of a Global People's Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China's Long-Term Global Basing Ambitions 2022
Overseas military access and basing is a critical component of China's global military ambitions. In this report, the authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s. They assess the risks posed by Chinese military expansion and recommend U.S. strategies to help shape the environment in which Chinese global ambitions will unfold.
-
The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations 2022
The authors develop a framework of 17 indicators to assess valuable attributes of potential host nations from Beijing's perspective, focusing not only on the utility of host nations (desirability) but also on China's ability to secure access (feasibility). They recommend strategies for the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the U.S. Army to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.
-
China's Global Basing Ambitions: Defense Implications for the United States 2022
The authors synthesize insights from two longer RAND Arroyo Center reports to examine China's growing overseas interests, valuable attributes of potential host nations from Beijing's perspective, and potential power projection operations that the People's Liberation Army may carry out abroad. The authors also draw lessons from three countries' experience with overseas access and basing and discuss their implications for U.S. responses to China.
-
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific 2022
This report assesses how China may react to expanded or varied U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of key factors likely to determine Chinese responses and identifies the characteristics of U.S. military activities that may either enhance deterrence of Chinese aggression or increase the risks of an escalatory Chinese reaction.
-
Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition 2022
The U.S. strategic focus has increasingly turned to major-power competition, but there is currently no framework for understanding U.S. competition with near-peer rivals China and Russia. This report provides a broad-based understanding of the economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions of these competitions and identifies recommendations for strategic policy action and investment.
-
Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War 2022
Russia perceives itself as the weaker power in the confrontation with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The authors assess the orientation of Russian military strategy from a position of overall weakness based the following factors: the balance of power, Russian diplomacy with China, views on future war, and trends in force readiness and mobilization.
-
China's Role in the Global Development of Critical Resources: Case Studies in Coal Power, Electricity Transmission, and Seabed Mining 2022
In this report, the authors examine Chinese foreign investments and financing in critical resources and energy infrastructure using a case-study approach involving investments and financing in coal power plants in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Africa; electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure associated with the global energy interconnection initiative in Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, and Mexico; and seabed mining globally.
-
Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements 2022
The dramatic increase in Chinese power and military capabilities over the past two decades has prompted calls for U.S. policymakers, and the U.S. Department of Defense in particular, to reevaluate their approach to the Indo-Pacific region, including changes to U.S. military posture. This report provides a framework of key factors that U.S. policymakers should consider in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the region.
-
Chinese and Russian Perceptions of and Responses to U.S. Military Activities in the Space Domain 2022
RAND researchers reviewed a variety of Chinese and Russian primary sources, such as government publications, military journals, academic reports, and domestic media, to assess how Chinese and Russian internal perceptions of and reactions to U.S. military space-related activities and policies have evolved over time. This report presents the results of their analysis.
-
Digital Infrastructure and Digital Presence: A Framework for Assessing the Impact on Future Military Competition and Conflict 2022
Digital infrastructure (DI) has emerged as an area of competition between the United States and China. This report defines DI, characterizes the competition for it, and describes the implications for long-term military competition and conflict. The authors also describe important trends and asymmetries shaping the competition and conclude by discussing the implications and opportunities for the United States.
-
Public Health and Soft Power: The Republic of Korea's Initial COVID-19 Response and Its Implications for Health Diplomacy 2022
From the early days of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic, the Republic of Korea's successful proactive strategies have received global attention. This report identifies and describes the features of the response that contributed to this success, as well as the national attributes that enabled them, and assesses how the nation might leverage its success to demonstrate soft power and help build a strong alliance for global health security.
-
Characterizing the Risks of North Korean Chemical and Biological Weapons, Electromagnetic Pulse, and Cyber Threats 2022
Focusing on threats from North Korea's weapons of mass destruction and cyber capabilities, the authors consider the key North Korean objectives that these weapons and capabilities serve, how they might be employed to achieve those objectives, and the effects they could have. The authors also propose actions that the Republic of Korea and the United States can take to deter and, if necessary, counter these uses.
-
An Exploratory Examination of Agent-Based Modeling for the Study of Social Movements 2022
Social movement research is becoming increasingly important, as information and communications technologies (ICTs) have altered the ways movements form, organize, mobilize, and act, as well as the ways in which they are surveilled and disrupted. The authors of this report explore the use of agent-based modeling as a method for studying the effects of ICTs on the formation, maintenance, and dissolution of social movements over time.
-
North Korean Sanctions Evasion 2022
Experts chronicle the historical background and rationale for United Nations sanctions on North Korea, discussing the threats posed by North Korean proliferation, the importance of sanctions enforcement, and North Korea's sanction-evasion tactics.
-
The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China 2022
The authors consider a hypothetical situation in which China is nearing the point of global primacy. Within such a context, the authors explore the prospect of systemic conflict. To help illuminate how such a war might unfold, they examine trends in warfare and geopolitics, the behavior of select past great powers, and patterns in interstate war. From these data, they formulate two scenarios of low- and high-intensity systemic conflict.
-
China's Gambit in the Pacific: Implications for the United States and Its Allies and Partners 2022
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on August 3, 2022.
-
Exploring Research Engagement with China: Opportunities and Challenges 2022
The British Embassy Beijing on behalf of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office commissioned RAND Europe to conduct an independent and evidence-based study into UK academics' research engagement with China. The study seeks to improve the UK government and wider understanding of how and why UK academics engage with China on joint research activities and better understand how UK research organisations manage any resulting risks.
-
The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness 2022
Nations rise and fall, succeed or fail in rivalries, and enjoy stability or descend into chaos because of a complex web of factors. One critical component is a nation's essential social characteristics. This report examines the characteristics of highly competitive societies, explores the relationship of a nation's social condition to its global standing, and then applies these lessons to the United States today.
-
Use of Predictive Analytic Tools to Assess Technological Emergences and Acquisition Targets 2022
The authors use the RAND Corporation's predictive patent analytic tools and expertise to understand the technologies in which U.S. entities are leading or lagging behind foreign entities, assess the U.S. industrial base patent landscape, and identify U.S. firms in technology areas of concern that may be targets of foreign acquisition.
-
Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China 2022
The authors examine how China might enact a quarantine of Taiwan and the potential U.S. and allied responses to the crisis. This strategic analysis of payoffs and options is intended to add a variety of economic and political moves to calculations concerning escalation. In particular, the authors examine several salient implications related to economic interdependencies and supply chain challenges that would arise with a quarantine scenario.