CAPP Publications

Recent Publications

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  China's Strategy and Activities in the Arctic: Implications for North American and Transatlantic Security 2022

  Stephanie Pezard, Stephen J. Flanagan, Scott W. Harold, Irina A. Chindea, Benjamin J. Sacks, Abbie Tingstad, Tristan Finazzo, Soo Kim

  This report assesses China's strategy and diplomacy in the Arctic and the potential implications of Chinese investments and activities there for the regional rules-based order and for regional and transatlantic security. The authors scrutinize Chinese activities that have been problematic in other parts of the world and assess whether they could also arise in the Arctic. The authors also recommend mitigative U.S. actions.

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  Digital Infrastructure and Digital Presence: A Framework for Assessing the Impact on Future Military Competition and Conflict 2022

  Julia Brackup, Sarah Harting, Daniel Gonzales

  Digital infrastructure (DI) has emerged as an area of competition between the United States and China. This report defines DI, characterizes the competition for it, and describes the implications for long-term military competition and conflict. The authors also describe important trends and asymmetries shaping the competition and conclude by discussing the implications and opportunities for the United States.

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  Public Health and Soft Power: The Republic of Korea's Initial COVID-19 Response and Its Implications for Health Diplomacy 2022

  Jennifer Bouey, Lynn Hu, Sohaela Amiri, Rafiq Dossani

  From the early days of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic, the Republic of Korea's successful proactive strategies have received global attention. This report identifies and describes the features of the response that contributed to this success, as well as the national attributes that enabled them, and assesses how the nation might leverage its success to demonstrate soft power and help build a strong alliance for global health security.

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  Characterizing the Risks of North Korean Chemical and Biological Weapons, Electromagnetic Pulse, and Cyber Threats 2022

  Bruce W. Bennett, Kang Choi, Gregory S. Jones, Du-Hyeogn Cha, Jiyoung Park, Scott W. Harold, Myong-Hyun Go, Yun Kang

  Focusing on threats from North Korea's weapons of mass destruction and cyber capabilities, the authors consider the key North Korean objectives that these weapons and capabilities serve, how they might be employed to achieve those objectives, and the effects they could have. The authors also propose actions that the Republic of Korea and the United States can take to deter and, if necessary, counter these uses.

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  An Exploratory Examination of Agent-Based Modeling for the Study of Social Movements 2022

  Aaron B. Frank, Marek N. Posard, Todd C. Helmus, Krystyna Marcinek, Justin Grana, Omair Kahn, Rushil Zutshi

  Social movement research is becoming increasingly important, as information and communications technologies (ICTs) have altered the ways movements form, organize, mobilize, and act, as well as the ways in which they are surveilled and disrupted. The authors of this report explore the use of agent-based modeling as a method for studying the effects of ICTs on the formation, maintenance, and dissolution of social movements over time.

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  North Korean Sanctions Evasion 2022

  King Mallory, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Erustus Gatebe, Soo Kim, William Newcomb, Maiko Takeuchi

  Experts chronicle the historical background and rationale for United Nations sanctions on North Korea, discussing the threats posed by North Korean proliferation, the importance of sanctions enforcement, and North Korea's sanction-evasion tactics.

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  The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China 2022

  Timothy R. Heath, Kristen Gunness, Tristan Finazzo

  The authors consider a hypothetical situation in which China is nearing the point of global primacy. Within such a context, the authors explore the prospect of systemic conflict. To help illuminate how such a war might unfold, they examine trends in warfare and geopolitics, the behavior of select past great powers, and patterns in interstate war. From these data, they formulate two scenarios of low- and high-intensity systemic conflict.

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  China's Gambit in the Pacific: Implications for the United States and Its Allies and Partners 2022

  Derek Grossman

  Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on August 3, 2022.

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  Exploring Research Engagement with China: Opportunities and Challenges 2022

  Fiona Quimbre, Peter Carlyon, Livia Dewaele, Alexi Drew

  The British Embassy Beijing on behalf of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office commissioned RAND Europe to conduct an independent and evidence-based study into UK academics' research engagement with China. The study seeks to improve the UK government and wider understanding of how and why UK academics engage with China on joint research activities and better understand how UK research organisations manage any resulting risks.

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  The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness 2022

  Michael J. Mazarr

  Nations rise and fall, succeed or fail in rivalries, and enjoy stability or descend into chaos because of a complex web of factors. One critical component is a nation's essential social characteristics. This report examines the characteristics of highly competitive societies, explores the relationship of a nation's social condition to its global standing, and then applies these lessons to the United States today.

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  Use of Predictive Analytic Tools to Assess Technological Emergences and Acquisition Targets 2022

  Richard Silberglitt, Anna Jean Wirth, Christopher A. Eusebi, Inez Khan, Jasmin Léveillé, Steven W. Popper

  The authors use the RAND Corporation's predictive patent analytic tools and expertise to understand the technologies in which U.S. entities are leading or lagging behind foreign entities, assess the U.S. industrial base patent landscape, and identify U.S. firms in technology areas of concern that may be targets of foreign acquisition.

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  Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China 2022

  Bradley Martin, Kristen Gunness, Paul DeLuca, Melissa Shostak

  The authors examine how China might enact a quarantine of Taiwan and the potential U.S. and allied responses to the crisis. This strategic analysis of payoffs and options is intended to add a variety of economic and political moves to calculations concerning escalation. In particular, the authors examine several salient implications related to economic interdependencies and supply chain challenges that would arise with a quarantine scenario.

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  Bridging the Gap: Assessing U.S. Business Community Support for U.S.-China Competition 2022

  Bonny Lin, Howard J. Shatz, Nathan Chandler, Cristina L. Garafola, Eugeniu Han, Andy Law, King Mallory, Zev Winkelman

  The Trump administration pursued policies to confront China over its transgressive and anticompetitive economic behaviors, such as theft of technology and intellectual property and limitations on market access. In this report, the authors assess how the U.S. manufacturing, technology, and financial sectors viewed these policies and examine how to improve U.S. government interactions with the business community to support competition with China.

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  Securing 5G: A Way Forward in the U.S. and China Security Competition 2022

  Daniel Gonzales, Julia Brackup, Spencer Pfeifer, Timothy M. Bonds

  This report describes fifth-generation (5G) network security, the 5G supply chain, competition in 5G equipment and mobile device markets, where the United States has security advantages over China, and how to preserve those advantages in the 5G competition between the United States and China. The report provides recommendations for securing 5G networks and mobile devices of the United States, its allies, and foreign partners.

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  Many Hands in the Cookie Jar: Case Studies in Response Options to Cyber Incidents Affecting U.S. Government Networks and Implications for Future Response 2022

  Quentin E. Hodgson, Yuliya Shokh, Jonathan Balk

  The 2020 revelations of cyber espionage targeting multiple U.S. government and private sector organizations highlighted the continuing challenge of cyber-enabled espionage. This report describes major cyber incidents affecting U.S. government systems and addresses whether U.S. responses have changed over time, whether they led to changes in adversary behavior, and what the United States can learn from these cases to inform future policymaking.

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  Ground-Based Intermediate-Range Missiles in the Indo-Pacific: Assessing the Positions of U.S. Allies 2022

  Jeffrey W. Hornung

  The author analyzes the likelihood of U.S. treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific region — Australia, Japan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand — hosting U.S. conventionally armed ground-based intermediate-range missiles. The author also examines alternatives to permanently basing U.S. missiles on allies' land and ultimately recommends helping Japan develop an arsenal of ground-based anti-ship standoff missile capabilities.

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  U.S. Resourcing to National Security Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of Adversary Activities in the Region 2022

  Jason H. Campbell, Stephen Dalzell, Anthony Atler, Mary Avriette, Jalen Zeman, Kevin J. Connolly

  Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has typically not been a priority region for U.S. national security objectives, but this posture may need to be reassessed. In this report, the authors assess the sufficiency of resources available to pursue U.S. national security objectives in LAC and describe the activities and investments of China, Russia, and Iran in the region.

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  Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition 2022

  Michael J. Mazarr, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jonah Blank, Samuel Charap, Michael S. Chase, Beth Grill, Derek Grossman, Dara Massicot, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Lyle J. Morris, et al.

  In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China. In particular, they sought to identify how, where, and to what degree the three major competitors — plus Australia, Japan, India, and several countries in Europe — are using security cooperation.

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  The Limits of Restraint: The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific 2022

  Miranda Priebe, Kristen Gunness, Karl P. Mueller, Zachary Burdette

  In recent years, there has been growing interest in a U.S. grand strategy of restraint. In this report, RAND researchers describe how such a strategy would affect when the United States would use force in the Asia-Pacific region, propose possible warfighting scenarios involving the defense of Japan that could guide U.S. Department of Defense planning, and describe how U.S. posture in the region would change.

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  Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific 2022

  Bonny Lin, Cristina L. Garafola, Bruce McClintock, Jonah Blank, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Karen Schwindt, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Paul Orner, Dennis Borrman, Sarah W. Denton, et al.

  This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against five U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to identify the most problematic tactics that the United States could prioritize countering.

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  Establishing a Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise for Australia: International and Domestic Lessons Learned 2022

  Christopher A. Mouton, Carl Rhodes, Mark V. Arena, Paul DeLuca, Andrew Dowse, John P. Godges, Adam R. Grissom, Caleb Lucas, Erik Silfversten

  The authors describe the relevance of five international case studies in relation to Australia's creation of a Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise, identified as a key priority by the government in its 2020 Defence Strategic Update. The authors review comparable enterprises in Japan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Canada and Norway to identify the most relevant aspects of each country's experience and lessons for Australia.

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  Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity 2022

  Michael J. Mazarr, Bryan Frederick, Emily Ellinger, Benjamin Boudreaux

  The authors discuss the need and potential for normative constraints on cyber aggression. They describe how norms tend to arise, review the history of governmental and private initiatives on cyber norms, and outline principles governing U.S. policy on the issue. The authors propose a bottom-up, "outside-in" agenda for the United States to encourage the development of norms to limit the most damaging forms of cyber aggression.

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  Assessing Systemic Strengths and Vulnerabilities of China's Defense Industrial Base: With a Repeatable Methodology for Other Countries 2022

  Cortney Weinbaum, Caolionn O'Connell, Steven W. Popper, M. Scott Bond, Hannah Jane Byrne, Christian Curriden, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Sale Lilly, Jared Mondschein, Jon Schmid

  In response to a requirement in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, the authors examine the strengths and vulnerabilities of China's defense industrial base (DIB) by designing and applying a comparative analytic structure that could be used to assess any country's DIB. They assess six areas: economics; governance and regulations; research, development, and innovation; workforce, labor, and skills; manufacturing; and raw materials.

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  An Assessment of the U.S. and Chinese Industrial Bases in Quantum Technology 2022

  Edward Parker, Daniel Gonzales, Ajay K. Kochhar, Sydney Litterer, Kathryn O'Connor, Jon Schmid, Keller Scholl, Richard Silberglitt, Joan Chang, Christopher A. Eusebi, et al.

  This report presents a flexible and repeatable set of metrics—specifically, focused on scientific research, government support, private industry activity, and technical achievement—for assessing a nation's industrial base in quantum technology. The authors apply these metrics to the United States to assess the current state of its industrial base, and they apply most of the metrics to the People's Republic of China as a comparative case study.

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  Crossroads of Competition: China, Russia, and the United States in the Middle East 2022

  Becca Wasser, Howard J. Shatz, John J. Drennan, Andrew Scobell, Brian G. Carlson, Yvonne K. Crane

  Although U.S. strategic competition with China and Russia focuses on Asia and Europe, this competition will play out in other regions, including in the Middle East. This report details the political, economic, and military interests and activities of China and Russia in the Middle East; identifies where those efforts contest, intersect, or complement U.S. interests and activities; and provides policy recommendations for the United States.