As the United States has become increasingly reliant on space-based capabilities, protecting them has become vital to national security, especially in the face of China's ambitions for superiority in space. Considering the application of classical deterrence theory to the space domain, the authors show how and why China's own objectives should be considered in building a tailored deterrence strategy for China in space.
Fires in Indonesia contribute to severe air pollution, or haze, that causes public health, environmental, and economic degradation in Indonesia and across equatorial Asia. In this report, the authors present preliminary analysis that explores the drivers of fire activity in Indonesia and quantifies health consequences using a local survey collected in districts located around the country, and conclude with recommendations for future research.
Given rising tensions between the United States and China, understanding how the People's Liberation Army thinks about the use of disinformation campaigns on social media has emerged as an important question. The authors of this report identify key Chinese practices and the supporting infrastructure and conditions that such campaigns require to be successful, concluding that China is using Taiwan as a test bed for developing attack vectors.
Russia and China have sought to modernize their legacy defense equipment while concurrently developing new and increasingly sophisticated systems of their own. This report discusses recent research into the research, development, and acquisition processes of Russia and China—both doctrinally and in practice—and identifies areas in which each country excels and where each country has challenges.
Researchers used news and blog data to understand efforts by foreign countries to spread malign information regarding COVID-19 in the Indo-Pacific region. The authors used RAND's proprietary lexical analysis platform, RAND-Lex, to explore whether news and blog data could provide some initial insights on the reach of, content of, and tactical strategies used in foreign malign information about COVID-19 in the Indo-Pacific.
Over the past two decades, China's role in the geopolitical landscape has grown, and U.S. leaders now view China as a strategic competitor. One of its strategies in that competition is to seek influence around the world. This report examines China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries, as well as the lessons that these examples offer the United States.
The authors of this report explore notional international and defense strategies that China might employ to outcompete the United States. The authors created these strategies using Chinese political processes, concepts, policies, and national goals. Their purposes are to support U.S. planning and decisionmaking, educate readers about China's strategy and policymaking process, and spur discussion about the stakes and nature of the competition.
The authors examine how China's approach to deterrence signalling is evolving along with its expanding objectives, growing military capabilities, and the availability of new communication channels. This report presents a framework to evaluate China's changing approach, one that is intended to enable analysts and policymakers in Australia, the United States, and other countries to appropriately characterise, interpret, and respond to Chinese deterrence signalling.
It is difficult to guess when the situation in North Korea will become conducive to foreign investment and development. When it does, however, the country will need to find a path for economic development. The authors describe such a blueprint using foreign investment as an organizational framework.
One of the United States' key partners in long-term strategic competition with China is India, which has the world's second-largest active-duty armed forces and is already a peer or near-peer competitor of China across a range of military capabilities. However, U.S. planners must be keenly aware of the constraints on both India's willingness and capacity to forge a partnership based on strategic competition with China.
The model introduced in this report is intended to enhance the predictive capabilities available to cyber defenders while also augmenting resilience by improving preventions and detections of cyber threats. The authors test this model's effectiveness in attacks on the RAND Corporation and report the results.
Threats to international order, national stability and prosperity have changed dramatically in recent years. Grey-zone tactics, cyberwarfare, and natural and man-made disasters require different defensive responses from traditional mobilisation. Comparing a range of national strategic frameworks, the authors commend the effectiveness of a 'total defence' mobilisation planning framework and risk-driven analysis in defending against modern threats.
Both Russia and China appear to have employed information manipulation during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to serve their respective global agendas. This report, part of the Truth Decay initiative, is one in a series systematically describing the types of COVID-19-related malign and subversive information efforts with which Russia- and China-associated outlets appear to have targeted U.S. audiences in the first half of 2020.
As part of a series of reports in which RAND researchers examine the established concepts of deterrence and develop a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships, this report explores two ongoing examples of extended deterrence. In particular, RAND researchers apply the established framework to U.S. efforts to deter North Korean aggression against South Korea and U.S. efforts to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
The authors document the history of the Third Offset, a U.S. strategy that focused on the potential of technology to offset Chinese and Russian military advances and that shaped the 2018 National Defense Strategy. The authors describe efforts to effect change within the U.S. Department of Defense and interview key defense leaders who did so, providing an example of how to bring about organizational change in large military institutions.
In this summary, researchers assess the advantages and trade-offs of a reimagined Middle East strategy where strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that prioritizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater development. They analyze long-standing U.S. interests and relationships with partners and develop an alternative framework in which the challenge of Iran is one among several factors that should be considered.
Researchers assess the advantages and trade-offs of a reimagined Middle East strategy where strategic goals link to a broader understanding of stability that prioritizes reduced conflict, better governance, and greater growth and development. They analyze long-standing U.S. interests and relationships with central partners and develop an alternative framework in which the Iranian challenge is one among several factors that should be considered.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on February 18, 2021.
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on February 18, 2021.
Some U.S. policymakers are interested in a new approach to the U.S. role in the world: a realist grand strategy of restraint, under which the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors explain how U.S. policies toward key regions would change under such a strategy, identify unanswered questions, and offer next steps for developing policy implications.
The U.S. Department of Defense's 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the importance of working with regional allies and partners in order to manage China's rise as a strategic competitor to the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. In this country-level report in a series, the author examines the potential for, and potential impediments to, partnering more closely with Indonesia.
Some of the United States' most powerful and trustworthy allies are its European partners and Japan. This report presents the results of a RAND Corporation study examining how Japan, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and three European states — the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — are increasingly cooperating in the security domain amid growing strategic competition. The author provides recommendations for fostering partner efforts.
In this country-level report in a series, the authors assess the perspectives of Australia and New Zealand as they implement their responses to China's more assertive foreign and security policy behavior in the Indo-Pacific and to a more competitive U.S.-China relationship. The project also examines how the United States can improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain its advantage in long-term competition with China.
The authors explore how command and control (C2) is exercised in the U.S. Navy and China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, how service culture affects C2 concepts, and how these C2 constructs might support or challenge each nation's shift to new maritime missions. The report characterizes common themes and identifies outstanding questions about the ways that cultural and organizational factors influence China's defense choices more broadly.
In the Indo-Pacific region, the alliance the United States has with Japan is arguably its most important. If a high-end contingency erupts in the East China Sea and the United States becomes engaged in major conventional combat operations with China, what roles can and might Japan play? This report assesses the strengths and limitations of Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF), as well as restrictions on SDF use of force ingrained in Japanese law.
