CAPP Publications

Recent Publications

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  Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China 2022

  Bradley Martin, Kristen Gunness, Paul DeLuca, Melissa Shostak

  The authors examine how China might enact a quarantine of Taiwan and the potential U.S. and allied responses to the crisis. This strategic analysis of payoffs and options is intended to add a variety of economic and political moves to calculations concerning escalation. In particular, the authors examine several salient implications related to economic interdependencies and supply chain challenges that would arise with a quarantine scenario.

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  Bridging the Gap: Assessing U.S. Business Community Support for U.S.-China Competition 2022

  Bonny Lin, Howard J. Shatz, Nathan Chandler, Cristina L. Garafola, Eugeniu Han, Andy Law, King Mallory, Zev Winkelman

  The Trump administration pursued policies to confront China over its transgressive and anticompetitive economic behaviors, such as theft of technology and intellectual property and limitations on market access. In this report, the authors assess how the U.S. manufacturing, technology, and financial sectors viewed these policies and examine how to improve U.S. government interactions with the business community to support competition with China.

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  Securing 5G: A Way Forward in the U.S. and China Security Competition 2022

  Daniel Gonzales, Julia Brackup, Spencer Pfeifer, Timothy M. Bonds

  This report describes fifth-generation (5G) network security, the 5G supply chain, competition in 5G equipment and mobile device markets, where the United States has security advantages over China, and how to preserve those advantages in the 5G competition between the United States and China. The report provides recommendations for securing 5G networks and mobile devices of the United States, its allies, and foreign partners.

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  Many Hands in the Cookie Jar: Case Studies in Response Options to Cyber Incidents Affecting U.S. Government Networks and Implications for Future Response 2022

  Quentin E. Hodgson, Yuliya Shokh, Jonathan Balk

  The 2020 revelations of cyber espionage targeting multiple U.S. government and private sector organizations highlighted the continuing challenge of cyber-enabled espionage. This report describes major cyber incidents affecting U.S. government systems and addresses whether U.S. responses have changed over time, whether they led to changes in adversary behavior, and what the United States can learn from these cases to inform future policymaking.

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  Ground-Based Intermediate-Range Missiles in the Indo-Pacific: Assessing the Positions of U.S. Allies 2022

  Jeffrey W. Hornung

  The author analyzes the likelihood of U.S. treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific region — Australia, Japan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand — hosting U.S. conventionally armed ground-based intermediate-range missiles. The author also examines alternatives to permanently basing U.S. missiles on allies' land and ultimately recommends helping Japan develop an arsenal of ground-based anti-ship standoff missile capabilities.

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  U.S. Resourcing to National Security Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Context of Adversary Activities in the Region 2022

  Jason H. Campbell, Stephen Dalzell, Anthony Atler, Mary Avriette, Jalen Zeman, Kevin J. Connolly

  Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has typically not been a priority region for U.S. national security objectives, but this posture may need to be reassessed. In this report, the authors assess the sufficiency of resources available to pursue U.S. national security objectives in LAC and describe the activities and investments of China, Russia, and Iran in the region.

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  Security Cooperation in a Strategic Competition 2022

  Michael J. Mazarr, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jonah Blank, Samuel Charap, Michael S. Chase, Beth Grill, Derek Grossman, Dara Massicot, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Lyle J. Morris, et al.

  In this study, RAND researchers examined the current role of security cooperation efforts as a tool in the emerging strategic competition among the United States, Russia, and China. In particular, they sought to identify how, where, and to what degree the three major competitors — plus Australia, Japan, India, and several countries in Europe — are using security cooperation.

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  The Limits of Restraint: The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific 2022

  Miranda Priebe, Kristen Gunness, Karl P. Mueller, Zachary Burdette

  In recent years, there has been growing interest in a U.S. grand strategy of restraint. In this report, RAND researchers describe how such a strategy would affect when the United States would use force in the Asia-Pacific region, propose possible warfighting scenarios involving the defense of Japan that could guide U.S. Department of Defense planning, and describe how U.S. posture in the region would change.

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  Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific 2022

  Bonny Lin, Cristina L. Garafola, Bruce McClintock, Jonah Blank, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Karen Schwindt, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Paul Orner, Dennis Borrman, Sarah W. Denton, et al.

  This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against five U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific and seeks to identify the most problematic tactics that the United States could prioritize countering.

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  Establishing a Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise for Australia: International and Domestic Lessons Learned 2022

  Christopher A. Mouton, Carl Rhodes, Mark V. Arena, Paul DeLuca, Andrew Dowse, John P. Godges, Adam R. Grissom, Caleb Lucas, Erik Silfversten

  The authors describe the relevance of five international case studies in relation to Australia's creation of a Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise, identified as a key priority by the government in its 2020 Defence Strategic Update. The authors review comparable enterprises in Japan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Canada and Norway to identify the most relevant aspects of each country's experience and lessons for Australia.

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  Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity 2022

  Michael J. Mazarr, Bryan Frederick, Emily Ellinger, Benjamin Boudreaux

  The authors discuss the need and potential for normative constraints on cyber aggression. They describe how norms tend to arise, review the history of governmental and private initiatives on cyber norms, and outline principles governing U.S. policy on the issue. The authors propose a bottom-up, "outside-in" agenda for the United States to encourage the development of norms to limit the most damaging forms of cyber aggression.

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  Assessing Systemic Strengths and Vulnerabilities of China's Defense Industrial Base: With a Repeatable Methodology for Other Countries 2022

  Cortney Weinbaum, Caolionn O'Connell, Steven W. Popper, M. Scott Bond, Hannah Jane Byrne, Christian Curriden, Gregory Weider Fauerbach, Sale Lilly, Jared Mondschein, Jon Schmid

  In response to a requirement in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, the authors examine the strengths and vulnerabilities of China's defense industrial base (DIB) by designing and applying a comparative analytic structure that could be used to assess any country's DIB. They assess six areas: economics; governance and regulations; research, development, and innovation; workforce, labor, and skills; manufacturing; and raw materials.

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  Crossroads of Competition: China, Russia, and the United States in the Middle East 2022

  Becca Wasser, Howard J. Shatz, John J. Drennan, Andrew Scobell, Brian G. Carlson, Yvonne K. Crane

  Although U.S. strategic competition with China and Russia focuses on Asia and Europe, this competition will play out in other regions, including in the Middle East. This report details the political, economic, and military interests and activities of China and Russia in the Middle East; identifies where those efforts contest, intersect, or complement U.S. interests and activities; and provides policy recommendations for the United States.

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  An Assessment of the U.S. and Chinese Industrial Bases in Quantum Technology 2022

  Edward Parker, Daniel Gonzales, Ajay K. Kochhar, Sydney Litterer, Kathryn O'Connor, Jon Schmid, Keller Scholl, Richard Silberglitt, Joan Chang, Christopher A. Eusebi, et al.

  This report presents a flexible and repeatable set of metrics—specifically, focused on scientific research, government support, private industry activity, and technical achievement—for assessing a nation's industrial base in quantum technology. The authors apply these metrics to the United States to assess the current state of its industrial base, and they apply most of the metrics to the People's Republic of China as a comparative case study.

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  Multi-Domain Integration in Defence: Conceptual Approaches and Lessons from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea 2022

  James Black, Alice Lynch, Kristian Gustafson, David Blagden, Pauline Paillé, Fiona Quimbre

  The Global Strategic Partnership, a research consortium led by RAND, was commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence to support the development of a concept of Multi-Domain Integration enabling the UK to maintain advantage by exploiting the integration of activities across domains. In particular, the study aimed to investigate the nature, extent and drivers of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea's own evolving thinking on multi-domain integration.

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  Democracy in the Asia-Pacific Region 2021

  Rafiq Dossani, Eugeniu Han, Cortez A. Cooper III, Sale Lilly

  Why do some Asian states consolidate democratic gains while others slide toward authoritarianism? In this report, RAND researchers use a literature review, statistical analysis, and case studies of Taiwan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia to study democratization and the factors that influence it among small Asian states, identify policies that can support democratization, and examine how external actors can help countries democratize.

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  A Guide to Extreme Competition with China 2021

  Christopher Paul, James Dobbins, Scott W. Harold, Howard J. Shatz, Rand Waltzman, Lauren Skrabala

  The U.S.-China competitive dynamic has been evolving rapidly and is at a critical crossroads. Policymakers can benefit from a new framework for thinking about this challenge that draws on an assessment of Chinese intentions, addresses how the dynamic does &mash; or could &mash; play out across various elements of national power, and offers realistic and actionable recommendations that are sensitive to the limits of U.S. competitiveness.

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  Implementing China's Grand Strategy in Asia Through Institutions: An Exploratory Analysis 2021

  Rafiq Dossani, Lynn Hu, Christian Curriden

  China's economic growth has led to a rise in its regional and global ambitions. In this report, the authors review the literature on China's grand strategy, its use of institutions, and its emphasis on Asia. Drawing on the input of policy experts, the authors discuss China's use of institutions in implementing its grand strategy toward Asian nations of interest to China, including, as a case study, the countries of the Korean Peninsula.

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  Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries 2021

  Michael J. Mazarr, Samuel Charap, Abigail Casey, Irina A. Chindea, Christian Curriden, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Arthur Chan, John P. Godges, Eugeniu Han, et al.

  The international system appears headed for a renewed era of intense competition among major powers. The authors sought to identify the factors that keep such rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes. Leveraging theory and historical case studies, the authors created a framework for assessing the stability of a strategic rivalry, then applied it to the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

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  Bad Actors in News Reporting: Tracking News Manipulation by State Actors 2021

  Christian Johnson, William Marcellino

  The research team found that both Russia and China appear to have employed information manipulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in service to their respective global agendas. This report, the second in a series, describes these efforts, as well as the analytic workflows employed for detecting and documenting state-actor malign and subversive information efforts.

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  Mapping Cross-Border Business Networks in the Asia-Pacific Region 2021

  Matthew Sargent

  In this first-ever regional assessment of firm-level governance networks in East and Southeast Asia, the author describes the structure of these interfirm networks and documents their dramatic growth and integration between 2006 and 2020. In addition to offering a descriptive account of the structure of these networks, the analysis describes suggestive structural factors that offer insight into the future of regional integration.

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  China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States 2021

  Andrew Radin, Andrew Scobell, Elina Treyger, J.D. Williams, Logan Ma, Howard J. Shatz, Sean M. Zeigler, Eugeniu Han, Clint Reach

  Since 2014, China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, increasing political, military, and economic cooperation. In this report, the authors seek to understand the history of cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, the drivers of and constraints on the relationship, the potential future of cooperation between China and Russia, the impact of the Chinese-Russian relationship on the United States, and implications for future U.S. policy.

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  China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts 2021

  Timothy R. Heath, Christian Curriden, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavanagh

  Great powers have frequently employed large, expeditionary military forces engaged in various operations abroad. As China has ascended in power, observers have debated whether the country might follow a similar path. China has undertaken two types of military interventions in its post-1949 history. The report's authors assess which one of two patterns is likely to predominate in China's future and how this pattern might change.

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  Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions 2021

  Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Samuel Charap, Timothy R. Heath, Ariane M. Tabatabai, Edward Geist, Christian Curriden

  The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future. Three companion reports consider Chinese, Russian, and Iranian military intervention behavior in detail. The insights and signposts identified in these reports can inform U.S. decisions about military posture, partnerships, and investments.

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  Iran's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts 2021

  Ariane M. Tabatabai, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh

  In recent years, Iran has risen as one of the most significant regional challenges faced by the United States. In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners and can guide decisions about the use of forces in the Middle East region.