Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the West and have created major security and economic challenges for states caught in between. The authors of this volume propose a new approach to the regional order that bridges current disagreements on the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts.
As a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe, the Black Sea region raises several critical questions: What is Russia's strategy there? How do Russian instruments of influence and military developments support that strategy? What key interests do other Black Sea littoral states want to advance and protect? What are the elements of a sustainable Western strategy to protect those interests?
Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security on September 19, 2019.
The authors of this report examine cases from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to understand whether and how states use cyber operations to coerce other states or actors, and highlight the challenges of identifying cyber coercion. They also propose ways to develop a deeper understanding of cyber coercion and how to counter it.
The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, sophisticated forgeries, cyberbullying and harassment, distribution of rumors and conspiracy theories, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report represents an effort to better define and understand the challenge by focusing on the activities of the two leading authors of such techniques — Russia and China.
This report provides an analytical framework for understanding allies' willingness to contribute to a military response to Russian attacks on a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member. We identify 13 factors that could influence allies' decisionmaking, consider how decisionmaking may vary in the event of an unconventional attack, and propose steps to mitigate Russian influence attempts and increase NATO unity in the event of an attack.
In this report, the authors examine how the United States might respond to Russian and Chinese efforts to seek strategic advantage through coercive actions in the gray zone. They use insights from their extensive field research and general research on the gray zone phenomenon to sketch out the elements of a strategic response to the gray zone challenge and develop a menu of response options for U.S. officials to consider.
Document submitted on June 19, 2019, as an addendum to testimony before the House Transportation and InfrastructureCommittee, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation on May 8, 2019.
Since 2008 Russia's military forces have improved, enabling Russian military operations in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria. Researchers analyze the societal, political, economic, and demographic factors that undergird Russian military power. Based on these factors, they analyze how Russian ground combat capabilities will evolve. The challenge for the U.S. military will be to compete in different regions without provoking escalation.
RAND researchers analyzed the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years — with a focus on ground combat — and the implications of that development for U.S.-Russian competition and for the U.S. Army.
