CRE Publications Archive

Latest Publications

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  Understanding the Factors That Will Impact the Succession to Vladimir Putin as Russian President 2020

  John Tefft

  This Perspective explores the factors and possible scenarios for the succession to Russian President Vladimir Putin and provides policy suggestions for U.S. officials. Putin now has the possibility of extending his presidency for two additional six-year terms. Russian elite rivalries, the security services, economic factors, and public satisfaction levels will all play a part in the selection of his successor.

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  Institution Building in Weak States: The Primacy of Local Politics 2020

  Andrew Radin

  The international community's approach to building state institutions needs its own reform. This innovative book proposes a new strategy, rooted in a rigorous analysis of recent missions. Pursuing incremental change that accommodates local political interests is more likely to produce effective, accountable, and law-abiding institutions.

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  Human-machine detection of online-based malign information 2020

  William Marcellino, Kate Cox, Katerina Galai, Linda Slapakova, Amber Jaycocks, Ruth Harris

  As social media is increasingly being used as a primary source for news online, there is a rising threat from the spread of malign and false information.In this context, RAND Europe developed a method to detect the malign use of information online for the UK Ministry of Defence's Defence and Security Accelerator.

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  Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios 2020

  Ben Connable, Abby Doll, Alyssa Demus, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach, Anthony Atler, William Mackenzie, Matthew Povlock, Lauren Skrabala

  Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity. Russia's armed forces are much improved from the 1990s, but lack of adequate transportation, political limitations, shortfalls in sustainment, limits on conscript deployment, and other factors constrain its global ground force deployment.

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  Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations 2020

  Ben Connable, Abby Doll, Alyssa Demus, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach, Anthony Atler, William Mackenzie, Matthew Povlock, Lauren Skrabala

  Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world. Notional deployment scenarios highlight a lack of readily deployable forces and transportation assets and limited freedom of movement. Collectively, these challenges suggest a modern Russian force that is far less deployable than the Soviet military it replaced.

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  Military Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force 2020

  Forrest E. Morgan, Raphael S. Cohen

  This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines some of the most significant factors shaping military trends over the next ten to 15 years: changes in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries. The report identifies six trends regarding who and where the United States is most likely to fight in the future and how those wars will be conducted.

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  Geopolitical Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force 2020

  Raphael S. Cohen, Eugeniu Han, Ashley L. Rhoades

  This volume of the Future of Warfare series explains six geopolitical trends—U.S. polarization and retrenchment, China's rise, Asia's realignment, emergence of a revanchist Russia, upheaval in Europe, and turmoil in the Islamic world—that will drive conflict between now and 2030. These trends will shift U.S. alliances; pull limited resources in different directions; and, ultimately, create a deepening strategic dilemma for U.S. defense strategy.

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  Meeting Europe's 21st Century Security Challenges: Reimagining Conventional Arms Control 2020

  Samuel Charap, Alice Lynch, John J. Drennan, Dara Massicot, Giacomo Persi Paoli

  The authors of this report outline new conventional arms control measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe and replace existing, outdated measures.

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  Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Ethical Concerns in an Uncertain World 2020

  Forrest E. Morgan, Benjamin Boudreaux, Andrew J. Lohn, Mark Ashby, Christian Curriden, Kelly Klima, Derek Grossman

  The authors examine the ethical considerations, benefits, and risks of military applications of artificial intelligence. Comparing development efforts in the United States, China, and Russia (as well as various positions on proposals to regulate or ban autonomous weapons), the authors point to a need for the United States to continue to pursue advantages in the field and explore confidence-building and risk-reduction measures with other states.

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  A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe: Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st Century 2020

  Samuel Charap, Alice Lynch, John J. Drennan, Dara Massicot, Giacomo Persi Paoli

  Through interviews, workshops, and structured analysis on the causes of potential conflict, the authors of this report outline new conventional arms control (CAC) measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe. The existing CAC regime is outdated and largely irrelevant to today's security environment. The authors provide a menu of options for a new CAC regime that could address the regional security challenges of the 21st century.