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Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War 2022

Bryan Frederick, Samuel Charap, Scott Boston, Stephen J. Flanagan, Michael J. Mazarr, Jennifer D. P. Moroney, Karl P. Mueller
The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. In this Perspective, the authors identify four potential pathways for such escalation, including the drivers of a possible Russian decision to strike. They conclude with a set of key considerations for U.S. policymakers to manage the escalation risks while pursuing U.S. objectives in the context of the war in Ukraine.
The Sources of Societal Competitiveness: How Nations Actually Succeed in Long-Term Rivalries 2022

Michael J. Mazarr
Seven characteristics are consistently associated with national dynamism and competitive position. This brief summarizes the relationship between a nation's social condition and its global standing and applies the lessons to the United States today.
RAND Review: July-August 2022 2022

Features explore environmental racism; the economic value to the UK of improving languages education in schools; and causes of civilian harm in Raqqa, Syria, and ways to reduce civilian casualties in current and future military operations.
Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning 2022

Clint Reach, Alyssa Demus, Eugeniu Han, Bilyana Lilly, Krystyna Marcinek, Yuliya Shokh
Military forecasting informs long-term military planning of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to examine several key indicators related to military forecasting to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.
Determining the Military Capabilities Most Needed to Counter China and Russia: A Strategy-Driven Approach 2022

David A. Ochmanek
Although the United States and its allies possess greater overall economic wherewithal than China and Russia, the U.S. forces' mission to project power rapidly and at scale across great distances is more difficult than the adversary's forces' missions. Decisionmakers must make wise choices for investing scarce military resources into capabilities that have the greatest potential to thwart adversaries' designs.
The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness 2022

Michael J. Mazarr
Nations rise and fall, succeed or fail in rivalries, and enjoy stability or descend into chaos because of a complex web of factors. One critical component is a nation's essential social characteristics. This report examines the characteristics of highly competitive societies, explores the relationship of a nation's social condition to its global standing, and then applies these lessons to the United States today.
RAND Arroyo Center Annual Report 2021 2022

This Annual Report illustrates the depth, breadth, and responsiveness of the studies that RAND Arroyo Center conducted for the Army in 2021. The report highlights projects that showcase both the variety of questions posed by Army leaders and the multidisciplinary approach that Arroyo uses to answer them. It also describes Arroyo's organization, leadership, and oversight.
Russian Disinformation Efforts on Social Media 2022

Elina Treyger, Joe Cheravitch, Raphael S. Cohen
Russia is conducting wide-reaching information warfare with the West. This report describes Russia's information warfare waged via social media and provides recommendations to better counter this threat. Although popular portrayals of the Russian disinformation machine imply an organized and well-resourced operation, evidence suggests that it is neither. Nonetheless, Russian activity can be harmful to U.S. interests and is likely to evolve.
Not So Quiet on the Southern Front 2022

Marigold Black, Peter Dortmans
Australia faces stiff geopolitical competition in Antarctica, and it's not just China and Russia with eyes on the prize.
Why Vietnam Might Want to Reconsider Its Russia Policy 2022

Derek Grossman
Russia's war in Ukraine has put many countries in a tough spot, pitting them between maintaining healthy ties with Moscow and supporting Western punitive measures. One such nation is Vietnam.