CRE Publications Archive

Latest Publications

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  Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition 2020

  Ben Connable, Stephanie Young, Stephanie Pezard, Andrew Radin, Raphael S. Cohen, Katya Migacheva, James Sladden

  Russia has historically succeeded in using various hostile measures to sow disorder, weaken democratic institutions, and undermine Western alliances. However, it also has a long track record of strategic shortfalls and even ineptitude. Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russian hostile behavior will benefit NATO and other Western powers in the so-called gray zone short of war, as well as in a conventional warfare scenario.

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  Gaming Gray Zone Tactics: Design Considerations for a Structured Strategic Game 2019

  Becca Wasser, Jenny Oberholtzer, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, William Mackenzie

  The authors of this report developed a strategic-level structured card game examining a gray zone competition between Russia and the West in the Balkans. They detail the development of this game, including key design decisions, elements of the game, how the game is played, and the undergirding research approach. They conclude with a discussion of recommendations for future applications of the game design.

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  Competing in the Gray Zone: Russian Tactics and Western Responses 2019

  Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Becca Wasser

  Russia has used gray zone tactics — ambiguous actions that target domestic or international public opinion — extensively within Europe. The RAND Corporation ran a series of war games to explore this issue, observing behavior and gaining insights from these games. The authors of this report summarize the key insights from these war games and describe the research effort that informed them.

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  RAND Arroyo Center Annual Report 2018-2019 2019

  This Annual Report illustrates the depth and breadth of the research conducted for the Army in fiscal year 2019. It highlights portfolios of research in areas of enduring interest to Army leadership and includes a sampler of research summaries that demonstrate the range of Arroyo's analytic capabilities. It also describes Arroyo's organization, leadership, and oversight.

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  Army Fires Capabilities for 2025 and Beyond 2019

  John Gordon IV, Igor Mikolic-Torreira, D. Sean Barnett, Katharina Ley Best, Scott Boston, Dan Madden, Danielle C. Tarraf, Jordan Willcox

  The Army is currently reorienting from a focus on counterinsurgency operations to a focus on conventional combat operations, and this shift has highlighted the need to take a detailed look at the state of the field artillery. The authors of this report identify capability gaps in the field artillery and actions that the Army should consider taking from today to roughly 2030.

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  The Limits of Russian Strategy in the Middle East 2019

  Becca Wasser

  This Perspective describes the limits of Russia's strategy in the Middle East, including the challenges from Russia's own political and economic systems, the limitations from regional actors in the Middle East, and the challenges from the United States. The author presents how the very elements that make Russia's strategy successful in the short term will ultimately limit the depth of Russia's regional approach in the long term.

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  Consular services to citizens abroad: Insights from an international comparative study 2019

  Stijn Hoorens, Fook Nederveen, Tuure-Eerik Niemi, Victoria Jordan, Kate Cox, Marc Bentinck

  This report explores the ways in which consular services to citizens abroad have been organised in seven countries (France, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, United Kingdom, United States and Australia). The study identifies insights for the Netherlands about: policy and legal frameworks; the organisation of the consular network; travel advice and travel documents; and support to distressed citizens.

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  Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria 2019

  Samuel Charap, Elina Treyger, Edward Geist

  Russia's 2015 military intervention in Syria's civil war took many by surprise. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention. In addition to the 2015 Syria intervention, they examine four smaller-scale interventions in conflicts outside of Russia's immediate neighborhood: Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syria before 2015.

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  Trends in Russia's Armed Forces: An Overview of Budgets and Capabilities 2019

  Keith Crane, Olga Oliker, Brian Nichiporuk

  The authors assess how Russian military forces are postured and resourced and how they are likely to operate. They also discuss the goals and effects of Russian military reform efforts, including initiatives that span all of the Russian armed forces' services and independent branches. Touching on most of Russia's armed forces' major capabilities, the authors conclude with a look at how those capabilities are being integrated in practice.

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  Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States 2019

  Paul K. Davis, J. Michael Gilmore, David R. Frelinger, Edward Geist, Christopher K. Gilmore, Jenny Oberholtzer, Danielle C. Tarraf

  Despite its global advantages, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s current deterrent posture in the Baltic states is militarily weak and generally questionable. A Russian invasion there would almost surely capture some or all of those states' capital cities within a few days, presenting NATO with a fait accompli. This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring such an invasion.