CRE Publications Archive

Latest Publications

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  Detecting Malign or Subversive Information Efforts over Social Media: Scalable Analytics for Early Warning 2020

  William Marcellino, Krystyna Marcinek, Stephanie Pezard, Miriam Matthews

  The authors examine scalable analytics to detect malign or subversive information efforts, using the 2018 World Cup as a case study. The report has operational relevance to the U.S. government. It may benefit both researchers interested in going beyond post hoc recognition of malign or subversive information campaigns to in-time detection and social media companies interested in preventing their platforms from being co-opted by malign actors.

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  Alternative Worldviews: Understanding Potential Trajectories of Great-Power Ideological Competition 2020

  Stephen Watts, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Benjamin N. Harris, Clint Reach

  The United States is engaged in a new era of great-power competition partially playing out in the realms of information, ideas, and ideology. The goal of this report is to help U.S. decisionmakers anticipate changes in the global competition of ideas and adapt policy accordingly. The authors examine trends in Chinese and Russian policy and actions, and discuss nonstate actors to analyze what ideological competition might look like in the future.

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  Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses 2020

  Andrew Radin, Alyssa Demus, Krystyna Marcinek

  This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, and recent events that illustrate Russia's attempts at subversion. The authors propose ensuring that any responses to such actions are closely and clearly linked with particular acts of subversion, conducting additional research on what makes some Russian subversion effective, and improving rapid attribution of subversion.

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  The Military Case for Extending the New START Agreement 2020

  Frank G. Klotz

  This Perspective describes the ways in which the 2010 New START agreement (which is set to expire in 2021) supports U.S. military objectives. It also examines the current debate over a possible five-year extension of the treaty. The author concludes that the United States should agree now to extend New START to gain the time to negotiate a new agreement that addresses a broader range of nuclear delivery systems and China's growing capabilities.

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  What Provokes Putin's Russia? Deterring Without Unintended Escalation 2020

  Stephanie Pezard, Ashley L. Rhoades

  What provokes Putin's Russia, particularly in the context of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s current deterrence efforts? The authors of this Perspective identify Russia's "redlines" and analyze current U.S. and NATO deterrence efforts, finding that predicting Russian reactions has proven difficult, and that changes in U.S. and NATO force posture have the most potential for effectively deterring action.

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  Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition 2020

  Ben Connable, Stephanie Young, Stephanie Pezard, Andrew Radin, Raphael S. Cohen, Katya Migacheva, James Sladden

  Russia has historically succeeded in using various hostile measures to sow disorder, weaken democratic institutions, and undermine Western alliances. However, it also has a long track record of strategic shortfalls and even ineptitude. Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russian hostile behavior will benefit NATO and other Western powers in the so-called gray zone short of war, as well as in a conventional warfare scenario.

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  Gaming Gray Zone Tactics: Design Considerations for a Structured Strategic Game 2019

  Becca Wasser, Jenny Oberholtzer, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, William Mackenzie

  The authors of this report developed a strategic-level structured card game examining a gray zone competition between Russia and the West in the Balkans. They detail the development of this game, including key design decisions, elements of the game, how the game is played, and the undergirding research approach. They conclude with a discussion of recommendations for future applications of the game design.

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  Competing in the Gray Zone: Russian Tactics and Western Responses 2019

  Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Becca Wasser

  Russia has used gray zone tactics — ambiguous actions that target domestic or international public opinion — extensively within Europe. The RAND Corporation ran a series of war games to explore this issue, observing behavior and gaining insights from these games. The authors of this report summarize the key insights from these war games and describe the research effort that informed them.

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  RAND Arroyo Center Annual Report 2018-2019 2019

  This Annual Report illustrates the depth and breadth of the research conducted for the Army in fiscal year 2019. It highlights portfolios of research in areas of enduring interest to Army leadership and includes a sampler of research summaries that demonstrate the range of Arroyo's analytic capabilities. It also describes Arroyo's organization, leadership, and oversight.

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  Army Fires Capabilities for 2025 and Beyond 2019

  John Gordon IV, Igor Mikolic-Torreira, D. Sean Barnett, Katharina Ley Best, Scott Boston, Dan Madden, Danielle C. Tarraf, Jordan Willcox

  The Army is currently reorienting from a focus on counterinsurgency operations to a focus on conventional combat operations, and this shift has highlighted the need to take a detailed look at the state of the field artillery. The authors of this report identify capability gaps in the field artillery and actions that the Army should consider taking from today to roughly 2030.