Decision Making Under Uncertainty Publications

This project has supported numerous academic publications (listed in reverse-chronological order, then alphabetically by author).

Submitted or In Press

Beliefs and Actions: An Analysis of the Public's Attitudes Towards Global Climate Change

Broomell, S., Budescu, D.V., and Por, H.

RAND Working Paper, submitted

Aided and Unaided Decision Making with Imprecise Probabilities

Budescu, D.V., Lempert, R., Broomell, S., and Keller, K.

Journal of Experimental Psychology, submitted

Analyzing Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Using Oceanic Oxygen and Chlorofluorocarbon Observations

Dorin, J., Bhat, S., Haran, M., and Keller, K.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Geosystems, submitted

Detecting ENSO Period Changes in a Proxy Record Spanning the Last Millennium

Dorin, J., Tuttle, B., and Keller, K.

Geophysical Research Letters, submitted

The Appeal of Vague Financial Forecasts

Du, N. and Budescu, D.V.

Organizational Behavior Human Decision Process, submitted

Implications of Future Climate Change and Restoration Policy for Louisiana Coastal Fisheries: A Pilot Project

Fischbach, J., Groves, D.G., Commagere, A.M., O'Connell, M., and Reed, D.

Estuaries and Coasts, submitted

The Economics (or Lack Thereof) of Aerosol Geoengineering Strategies

Goes, M., Keller, K., and Tuana, N.

Climatic Change, submitted

The Skill of Different Ocean Tracers in Reducing Uncertainties About Projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Goes, M., Urban, N.M., Tonkonojenkov, R., Haran, M., and Keller, K.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, submitted

Identifying and Evaluating Robust Adaptive Policy Responses to Climate Change for Water Management Agencies in the American West

Lempert, R.J. and Groves, D.G.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, submitted

What Are Robust Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Threshold Response?

McInerney, D., Lempert, R., and Keller, K.

manuscript in preparation

A Probabilistic Assessment of Historic Land Use CO2 Emissions Based on Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Ice-Core Observations

Miltich, L.I., Ricciuto, D.M., and Keller, K.

Environmental Research Letters, in revision

Tree-Ring Based Climate Scenarios to Inform Decision Making in Water Resource Management: A Case Study from the Inland Empire, CA

Tingstad, A.H., Groves, D.G., and Lempert, R.J.

manuscript in preparation


Methods for Long-Term Environmental Policy Challenges — Jul. 14, 2009

Lempert, R., Scheffran, J., and Sprinz, D.F.

Global Environmental Politics, Vol. 9 (2009), p. 106

Why Are Experts Correlated? Decomposing Correlations Between Judges — Apr. 30, 2009

Broomell, S. and Budescu, D.V.

Psychometrika, Vol.74 (2009), pp. 531-553

Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — Jan. 31, 2009

Budescu, D.V., Broomell, S., and Por, H.

Psychological Science, Vol. 20 (2009), p. 299

Quantified Scenarios of 2030 California Water Demand — 2009

Groves, D.G., Matyac, S., and Hawkins, T.

California Water Plan Update 2009, California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA


Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning — Dec. 10, 2008

Groves, D.G., Yates, D., and Tebaldi, C.

Water Resources Research, Vol. 44 (2008)

Detecting Potential Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N in the Atlantic — Nov. 2008

Baehr, J., Keller, K., and Marotzke, J.

Climatic Change, Vol. 91 (2008), pp. 11-27

Abrupt Climate Change Near the Poles — Nov. 2008

Keller, K., Tol, R.S.J., Toth, F.L., and Yohe, G.W.

Climatic Change, Vol. 91 (2008), pp. 1-4

Managing the Risks of Climate Thresholds: Uncertainties and Needed Information — Nov. 2008

Keller, K., Yohe, G., and Schlesinger, M.

Climatic Change, Vol. 91 (2008), pp. 5-10

Economically Optimal Risk Reduction Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Climate Thresholds — Nov. 2008

McInerney, D. and Keller, K.

Climatic Change, Vol. 91 (2008), pp. 29-41

Valuation of Vague Prospects with Mixed Outcomes — Jul. 20, 2008

Budescu, D.V. and Templin, S.

Chapter in Decision Modeling and Behavior in Uncertain and Complex Environments (Springer); T. Connolly, T. Kugler, C. Smith, and Y. So, eds.

Planning for Climate Change in the Inland Empire, Southern California — Jul. 2008

Groves, D.G., Davis, M., Wilkinson, R., and Lempert, R.

Water Resources IMPACT, Vol. 10 (2008), p. 14

Carbon Dioxide Sequestration: When and How Much? — Jun. 2008

Keller, K., McInerney, D., and Bradford, D.F.

Climatic Change, Vol. 88 (2008), p. 267

Optimization of an Observing System Design for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — Apr. 2008

Baehr, J., McInerney, D., Keller, K., and Marotzke, J.

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 25 (2008), pp. 625-634

Measuring Oxygen Concentrations to Improve the Detection Capabilities of an Ocean Circulation Observation Array — Feb. 22, 2008

Brennan, C., Matear, R., and Keller, K.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans (2008), p. 113

The Dynamics of Learning about a Climate Threshold — Feb. 2008

Keller, K. and McInerney, D.

Climate Dynamics, Vol. 30 (2008), p. 321

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics — 2008

Fukuyama, F.

Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.

Presenting Uncertainty About Climate Change to Water-Resource Managers: Summary of Workshops with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency — 2008

Groves, D.G., Knopman, D., Lempert, R.J., Berry, S., and Wainfan, L.

RAND Technical Report, TR-505-NSF

Preparing for an Uncertain Future Climate in Inland Empire: Identifying Robust Water-Management Strategies — 2008

Groves, D. G., Lempert, R., Knopman, D., and Berry, S.

RAND Documented Briefing, DB-550-NSF

Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Bold and Careful? — 2008

Lempert, R.

Chapter in Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.

Comparing Algorithms for Scenario Discovery — 2008

Lempert, R.J., Bryant, B.P., and Bankes, S.C.

RAND Working Report, WR-557-NSF

The Give-Or-Take-Some Dilemma — 2008

McCarter, M.W., Budescu, D.V., and Scheffran, J.

Working Paper, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign


Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Responses: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches — Oct. 23, 2007

Lempert, R.J. and Collins, M.T.

Risk Analysis, Vol. 27 (2007), pp. 1009-1026

The Regrets of Procrastination in Climate Policy — Jun. 21, 2007

Keller, K., Robinson, A., Bradford, D.F., and Oppenheimer, M.

Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 2 (2007), Best of 2007 Selection

Early Detection of Changes in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for the Design of Ocean Observation Systems — Jan. 2007

Keller, K., Deutsch, C., Hall, M.G., and Bradford, D.F.

Journal of Climate, Vol. 20 (2007), pp. 145-157

A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios — 2007

Groves, D.G. and Lempert, R.J.

Global Environmental Change, Vol. 17 (2007), pp. 78-85

What is the Economic Value of Information About Uncertain Climate Thresholds? — 2007

Keller, K., Kim, S.-R., Baehr, J., Bradford, D.F., and Oppenheimer, M.

Chapter in Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment, p. 343

How Overconfident Are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? — 2007

Keller, K., Miltich, L., Robinson, A., and Tol, R.S.J.

Berkeley Electronic Press (2007)

Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change — 2007

Patwardhan, A., Semenov, S., Schneider, S., Burton, I., Magadza, C., Oppenheimer, M., Pittock, B., Rahman, A., Smith, J., Suarez, A., Yamin, F., Keller, K., Todorov, A., Finkel, A., MacMynowski, D., Mastrandrea, M., Fuessel, M., Corfee-Morlot, J., Sukumar, R., van Ypersele, J.-P., and Zillman, J.

Chapter 19 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability


The Sensitivity of Probability Assessments to Time Units and Performer Characteristics — Sep. 2006

Yechiam, E. and Budescu, D.V.

Decision Analysis, Vol. 3 (2006)

Success Matters: Recasting the Relationship among Geophysical, Biological, and Behavioral Scientists to Support Decision Making on Major Environmental Challenges — Feb. 14, 2006

Knopman, D.S.

Water Resources Research, Vol. 42 (2006)

New Methods for Identifying Robust Long-Term Water Resources Management Strategies for California — 2006

Groves, D.G.

Dissertation, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA

A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios — 2006

Lempert, R.J., Groves, D.G., Popper, S.W., and Bankes, S.C.

Management Science, Vol. 52 (2006), pp. 514-528


Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System — Dec. 2005

Keller, K., Hall, M.G., Kim, S.-R., Bradford, D.F., and Oppenheimer, M.

Climatic Change, Vol. 73 (2005), pp. 227-238