China Expert to Testify Before Congress About China's Military Preparedness


RAND senior international and defense researcher Timothy Heath will testify before the U.S.-China Economic Security and Review Commission about China's national defense mobilization system during a hearing on China's military preparedness for competition and conflict.


Heath's testimony will focus on the difference between preparedness and war preparation. While there is evidence that China's military is enhancing its preparedness, there is no evidence of mobilization and little evidence of national war preparation. Currently, there are no indications that China's bureaucracy is ready for a war and compelling political disincentives to initiate a war, but under a more belligerent political posture, war preparations could proceed quickly and the risk of conflict would increase.

Heath recommends continued monitoring of Chinese senior leader speeches and documents for a shift in political agenda, a focus on Chinese war preparations, and monitoring the mood of Chinese elites and the public.

Written testimony:


Thursday, June 13, 1:50 to 3 p.m. EST


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(703) 414-4795 or
(310) 451-6913, or
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