This page collects RAND's latest work on strategic competition with Russia. To connect with an expert, email strategic-competition@rand.org.
What provokes Putin's Russia, particularly in the context of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)'s current deterrence efforts? The authors of this Perspective identify Russia's "redlines" and analyze current U.S. and NATO deterrence efforts, finding that predicting Russian reactions has proven difficult, and that changes in U.S. and NATO force posture have the most potential for effectively deterring action.
Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the West and have created major security and economic challenges for states caught in between. The authors of this volume propose a new approach to the regional order that bridges current disagreements on the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts.
Document submitted on April 9, 2019, to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission as a statement for the record for the hearing on March 21, 2019.
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. It examines Russian vulnerabilities and anxieties; analyzes potential policy options to exploit them; and assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood of successful implementation.
RAND researchers analyzed how political warfare is practiced today and identified ways that the U.S. government, its allies, and its partners can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
This Perspective describes the limits of Russia's strategy in the Middle East, including the challenges from Russia's own political and economic systems, the limitations from regional actors in the Middle East, and the challenges from the United States. The author presents how the very elements that make Russia's strategy successful in the short term will ultimately limit the depth of Russia's regional approach in the long term.
This chapter examines the internal U.S. government debate on NATO's transformation and enlargement and how these initiatives pursued by the George H.W. Bush and Clinton Administrations shaped a new post-Cold War security order in Europe.
This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines non-violent, cost-imposing options that could be pursued to overextend and unbalance the Russian regime.
Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Middle East, North Africa and International Terrorism on May 9, 2019.
This chapter reviews way to revitalize elements of President George H.W. Bush's vision of Europe whole, free, and at peace given the unraveling of arms control agreements, the return of armed conflict, and the deterioration of democratic governance and rule of law in several European countries.
The perspectives collected here explore alternatives to the current approaches to the regional order for the states "in between" the West and Russia — Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. These papers result from meetings of a working group of experts and former policy practitioners from the United States, the European Union, Russia and the in-between states.
This report analyzes political warfare as it is practiced today by both state and nonstate actors, and provides detailed recommendations regarding the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
Disputes over regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia, which reached their apex with Russia's annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations. This Perspective proposes a new approach, based on a mutually acceptable regional integration framework and norms governing the behavior of outside powers, to boost regional stability and reduce the tensions in Russia-West relations.
Heightened tensions between Russia and NATO since 2014 have prompted the Alliance to take a fresh look at NATO's ability to deter potential Russian aggression. In this report, RAND researchers develop a framework that analysts can use to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe, which can help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.
This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe. The objective is to identify how changes in the interests, security strategies, and defense capabilities of these countries affect U.S. partnering in the region, with a focus on implications for the U.S. Air Force. Opportunities for strengthening partnerships exist in many areas.
Given Russia's annexation of Crimea and continued aggression in eastern Ukraine, Europe must reassess its approach to a regional security environment previously thought to be stable and relatively benign. This report analyzes the vulnerability of European states to possible forms of Russian influence, pressure, and intimidation and examines four areas of potential European vulnerability: military, trade and investment, energy, and politics.
The authors seek to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. Russia's regional strategy is an approach of ways and means, where broad principles take the place of prescribed ends; it is constantly seeking to improve its short-term economic, military, and political advantages.
In this report, RAND researchers analyze Russian core interests and views of the international order. The authors find that Russia sees the current international order as dominated by the United States and as a threat to some of Russia's interests. For several areas, U.S. and Russian interests overlap and cooperation is feasible. In other areas, U.S. and Russian interests conflict, and this report offers options for U.S. policy going forward.
This report analyzes trends in strategic stability between Russia and the United States, examines Russian views on the subject, and assesses current prospects for stemming the erosion of strategic stability between the two countries. Such prospects exist, but they would require a sustained effort and greater political will on both sides.
The evolving security relationship between NATO and Russia has important implications for Air Force strategy, posture, and regional engagement. The study for which this document is the executive summary focuses on the implications of the changing relationship with Russia for U.S. Air Force and defense engagement with a group of key allies and partner states in northeastern Europe.
Mounting costs, risks, and public misgivings of waging war are raising the importance of U.S. power to coerce (P2C). The best P2C options are financial sanctions, support for nonviolent political opposition to hostile regimes, and offensive cyber operations. The state against which coercion is most difficult and risky is China, which also happens to pose the strongest challenge to U.S. military options in a vital region.
Amid Russia's continuing intervention in Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and member-state policymakers must devise a comprehensive strategy to seek peace and stability in Europe and find a cohesive way forward. This perspective assesses two strategies toward Russia: (1) punishment and disengagement and (2) resilience and engagement and makes a case for the latter.
The United States must determine how best to promote long-term security and stability in the Persian Gulf region while seeking to reduce the risks and costs imposed by its role as a permanent regional power. The author analyzes Iraq's future, the role of Iran, asymmetric threats, regional reassurance, regional tensions, and the roles of other external actors. He then sets out criteria and requirements for a new regional security structure.
Testimony presented before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on European Affairs on May 6, 2009.
Six institutions in five countries that have key interests in North Korea’s future undertook a collaborative effort to determine ways in which the North Korean system could move toward modernization. The effort produced illustrative plans, a consensus plan, and a tool kit for constructing alternative plans for stimulating the modernization of the North Korean system.
