Using examples from strategic planning, acquisition management, logistics, manpower, crisis decisionmaking, and organization and management, this report summarizes 20 years of RAND's uncertainty analysis for national security. Highlights include RAND's evolutionary view of how to deal with "deep uncertainty" and coping with surprise developments. The report is for readers concerned with strategy, planning, and related analytic methods.
RAND has contributed more to thinking about how to deal with the longer-range future than any other organization. The methodological work at RAND started in the late 1950s and 1960s with the developments of the Delphi method and scenario analysis. This work continued sporadically through the 1970s and 1980s—and since the 1990s—computational technology has enabled new futures methodologies such as Robust Decision Making and Scenario Discovery.
RAND is again leading the way in putting these methods to use in dealing with the challenges of the future. Below is a list of publications that exemplifies RAND's work on Robust Decision Making methodology and applications.
Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include expectations about future sea level rise into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures.