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Futures Methodologies

Since the late 1950s, RAND has made significant contributions to a wide range of methodologies focused on how to deal with the longer-range future. Here we present some of RAND's earliest research on these topics.

Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting, and Group Process

Jan 1, 1974

A critical analysis and evaluation of the Delphi technique, a systematic method for eliciting expert opinion on a variety of topics.

Harold Sackman
Comparison of Group Judgment Techniques with Short-Range Predictions and Almanac Questions

Jan 1, 1971

An experiment designed to discover whether the results of laboratory studies dealing with general (almanac) information are relevant to the applied case when the true answer is unknown. Using short-range prediction questions as subject matter, the experiment indicates that, in general, Delphi procedures are at least as effective with short-range prediction as they have been for almanac material.

Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown
Experimental Assessment of Delphi Procedures with Group Value Judgments

Jan 1, 1971

One of a series of studies using Delphi procedures to aid decisionmakers in dealing with value judgments. Previous studies have not clearly shown that there is an appropriate population of factual questions to compare with value judgments; the variability of performance on factual questions is large, depending on the type of questions asked.

Norman Crolee Dalkey, D. L. Rourke
The Delphi Method, IV: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts

Mar 1, 1970

An investigation of the effect on group accuracy of two variations in the Delphi procedures.

Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, S. W. Cochran
The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates

Nov 1, 1969

An analysis of the validity of using self-rating as a technique for selecting more accurate subgroups in applications of the Delphi method for eliciting group judgments.

Norman Crolee Dalkey, Bernice B. Brown, S. W. Cochran
The DELPHI Method, II: Structure of Experiments

Jun 1, 1969

This Memorandum is a supplement to RM-5888-PR and presents material used in a series of experiments evaluating the Delphi procedures for formulating and refining group judgments, as well as a bibliography of RAND publications related to Delphi studies.

Brian Brown, S. W. Cochran, Norman Crolee Dalkey
The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion

Jun 1, 1969

This report describes the results of an extensive set of experiments conducted at RAND during the spring and summer of 1968 that were concerned with evaluating the effectiveness of the Delphi procedures for formulating group judgments.

Norman Crolee Dalkey
Delphi and Values

Jan 1, 1969

An analysis of the utility of the Delphi method for determining group values.

Nicholas H. Rescher
Predicting the Future

Jan 1, 1968

The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described.

Norman Crolee Dalkey
Experiments in Group Prediction

Jan 1, 1968

The use of the Delphi method for group prediction and estimating in a series of Rand experiments.

Norman Crolee Dalkey
Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts

Jan 1, 1968

A description of the Delphi method and some of the areas to which it has and could be applied.

Bernice B. Brown
Systematic Use of Expert Opinions

Jan 1, 1967

An explanation of the experimental Delphi technique, a systematic procedure for obtaining the opinions of experts on a particular subject.

Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
Delphi

Jan 1, 1967

An outline of the Delphi technique of long-range forecasting by separately eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of advisers without contact among them, and calculating a statistical

Norman Crolee Dalkey
Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method

Jan 1, 1967

A description of the Delphi Technique which attempts to make effective use of informed intuitive judgment in long-range forecasting.

Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
The Use of the Delphi Technique in Problems of Educational Innovations

Jan 1, 1966

A description of the Delphi technique, a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of expert opinions, and its applications to educational planning.

Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
Improving the Reliability of Estimates Obtained from a Consensus of Experts

Jan 1, 1964

A report on an experiment in the use of expert opinions. The experiment, involving the Delphi technique and the computation of a consensus based on self-appraised competence ratings, is described and its results analyzed.

Bernice B. Brown, Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
Convergence of Expert Consensus Through Feedback

Jan 1, 1964

A discussion of studies directed toward the improved use of expert opinions in operations research. The Delphi method as applied to consensus research is discussed and the results of experiments directed toward convergence of expert opinions present.

Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
The Systematic Use of Expert Judgment in Operations Research

Jan 1, 1963

A consideration of operations research as a science, though an inexact one.

Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts

Jan 1, 1962

An unrestricted abridgement and revision of a report on an experiment in the use of experts for estimation and decision making, which was part of a series of experiments performed at RAND, designated internally as "Project Delphi."

Norman Crolee Dalkey, Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences

Jan 1, 1960

A new epistemological approach to the inexact sciences, which include applied physical sciences, such as engineering and medicine, as well as most of the social sciences.

Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg, Nicholas H. Rescher

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