Futures Methodologies

Robust Decisionmaking

• Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis 2003

  Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes

  What should people do today to shape the next hundred years to their liking?

• A New Decision Sciences for Complex Systems 2002

  Robert J. Lempert

  Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of uncertainty suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis.

• Computer-assisted Reasoning 2001

  Steven C. Bankes, Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper

  Computer models provide a powerful tool for reasoning about difficult problems.

• Confronting Surprise 2002

  Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes

  RAP methods may offer greater insight into the vulnerabilities inherent in several types of surprises.

• Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change 2001

  Robert J. Lempert, Michael E. Schlesinger

• The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework for Analysis 2001

  Thomas S. Szayna, Daniel Byman, Steven C. Bankes, Derek Eaton, Seth G. Jones, Robert Mullins, Ian O. Lesser, William Rosenau

  This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power).

• Expandability of the 21st Century Army 2000

  James A. Dewar, Steven C. Bankes, Sean J. A. Edwards, James C. Wendt

  Said another way, today's expandability issues and impediments are likely to persist in most reasonable futures.

• New Methods for Robust Science and Technology Planning 1998

  Robert J. Lempert, James Bonomo

  In the fall of 1996, RAND researchers conducted a successful proof-of-concept demonstration for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of new methods for science and technology (S and T) planning.

• The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education 1998

  George S. Park, Robert J. Lempert

  Discusses a study that used a new approach to address the conditions under which California can preserve access to public higher education over the next two decades.

• Weapon Mix and Exploratory Analysis: A Case Study 1997

  Arthur Brooks, Steven C. Bankes, Bart E. Bennett

  A new approach to model-based analysis--exploratory analysis--expands on traditional analytic approaches to enhance understanding of complex problems, provides a wider range of information for decisionmakers, and improves comparisons.

• Computational Experiments and Exploratory Modeling 1994

  Steven C. Bankes

• Validation of exploratory modeling 1994

  Steven C. Bankes, James J. Gillogly

• Exploratory modeling : search through spaces of computational experiments 1994

  Steven C. Bankes, James J. Gillogly

• Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis 1993

  Steven C. Bankes

  Distinguishes these two broad classes of model use, describes some of the approaches used in exploratory modeling, and suggests some technological innovations needed to facilitate it.

We welcome your input. Send suggestions for links and other ideas to lempert@rand.org.