A Probabilistic Forecasting Methodology Applied to Electric Energy Consumption 1973
Probabilistic forecasting is presented as a technique required when the period to be described is in the far future and the relationships are complex.
Probabilistic forecasting is presented as a technique required when the period to be described is in the far future and the relationships are complex.
Describes an experiment in forecasting economic, political, and military events, expressing uncertainty with explicit probabilities.
Discusses ways to exploit in probabilistic terms the judgment of experts on political, economic, or military problems — frequently the best information available.