Futures Methodologies

Scenario Discovery

Recent studies point to a significant gap between current scenario practice and its potential contributions. Our research has significantly improved the analytic underpinnings of "scenario-discovery," one key step in an RDM analysis that may help bridge this gap. Scenario discovery uses statistical/data-mining algorithms to find policy-relevant clusters of cases in large, multi-dimensional databases of simulation model results. Conveniently interpreted as scenarios, these clusters help illuminate and quantify the tradeoffs among alternative strategies under deep uncertainty.