Brian Michael Jenkins — Publications

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Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics 2022
The Atomization of Political Violence 2021
The Collapse of Comity: Perilous Times in the Third Turbulent Century of Our Political Experiment 2021
Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan 2021
Exiting Extremism: What Binds People to Extremist Groups and How Organizations Help Them Leave 2021
The Origin and Evolution of the RAND Corporation's Terrorism Databases: Defining and Building a New Field of Knowledge 2021
The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism 2020
Paths to Destruction: A Group Portrait of America's Jihadists — Comparing Jihadist Travelers with Domestic Plotters 2020
Options for Dealing with Islamic State Foreign Fighters Currently Detained in Syria 2019
Waging War Beyond the Battlefield: Remarks at the Celebration of 50 Years at RAND 2019
Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans? 2018
Bush, Obama, And Trump: The Evolution Of U.S. Counterterrorist Policy Since 9/11 2017
Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum 2017
Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum 2017
Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions 2017
The Origins of America's Jihadists 2017
Think Mass Shootings Are Terrorism? Careful What You Wish For 2017
Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013 2016
Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet 2016
Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened 2016
A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis 2016
A Saudi-Led Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Welcome Muscle in the Fight Against Terrorism, Desert Mirage, or Bad Idea? 2016
Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed By Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq 2015
The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad 2015
The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning Western Fighters 2015
How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq 2015
The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security 2015
Inspiration, Not Infiltration: Jihadist Conspirators in the United States 2015
There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq: Addendum 2015
There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq 2015
War by What Means, According to Whose Rules? The Challenge for Democracies Facing Asymmetric Conflicts: Proceedings of a RAND–Israel Democracy Institute Workshop, December 3–4, 2014 2015
Brothers Killing Brothers: The Current Infighting Will Test al Qaeda's Brand 2014
The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War 2014
The Future of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act 2014
Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats and the Continuing Challenges of Domestic Intelligence Collection and Information Sharing 2014
When Jihadis Come Marching Home: The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria and Iraq 2014
An Incremental Tyranny 2013
The Role of Terrorism and Terror in Syria's Civil War 2013
The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States 2013
When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars 2013
Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory? 2012
Aviation Security: After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review 2012
New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat 2012
New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: Addendum 2012
Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy: Addendum 2011
Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy 2011
Is Al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working? 2011
The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism 2011
RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011 2011
Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11 2011
The Tenth Year: A Briefing on Terrorism Issues to New Members of the 112th Congress 2011
The al Qaeda-Inspired Terrorist Threat: An Appreciation of the Current Situation 2010
No Path to Glory: Deterring Homegrown Terrorism 2010
Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001 2010
Could Mexico Fail? 2009
Going Jihad: The Fort Hood Slayings and Home-Grown Terrorism 2009
The Lessons of Mumbai 2009
Savage Struggle on the Border: Can Mexico Fail? 2009
Terrorists Can Think Strategically: Lessons Learned From the Mumbai Attacks 2009
U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions -- Strategic Choices 2009
RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008 2008
Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? 2008
Basic Principles for Homeland Security 2007
Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment 2007
Defining the Role of a National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism 2007
Fear Cannot Counter Terror 2006
The New Age of Terrorism 2006
RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 2006 2006
Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves 2006
Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror 2005
RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004 2004
Terrorism and the Security of Public Surface Transportation 2004
RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003 2003
Remarks Before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States 2003
Countering al Qaeda: An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy 2002
Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda 2002
RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002 2002
RAND Review: Vol. 25, No. 3, Fall 2001 2001
Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats 2001
Countering the New Terrorism 1999
Getting the Hostages Out: Who Turns the Key? 1990
The Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy: Report on a May 1987 Conference 1989
The Possibility of Soviet-American Cooperation Against Terrorism 1989
Terrorism: Policy Issues for the Bush Administration 1989
The Terrorist Threat to Commercial Aviation 1989
Nicaraguan Security Policy: Trends and Projections 1988
Potential Threats to Offshore Platforms 1988
The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: A Reexamination 1988
Should Our Arsenal Against Terrorism Include Assassination? 1987
The Aftermath of the Achille Lauro 1985
Colombia's Bold Gamble for Peace 1985
A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Terrorist Groups 1985
The Future Course of International Terrorism 1985
Future Trends in International Terrorism 1985
International Terrorism: The Other World War 1985
The Likelihood of Nuclear Terrorism 1985
Military Force May Not Be Ruled Out 1985
Combatting Terrorism Becomes a War 1984
Improving the Means for Intergovernmental Communications in Crisis 1984
The Lessons of Beirut: Testimony Before the Long Commission 1984
Testimony Before the Committee on the Judiciary 1984
Trends in International Terrorism, 1982 and 1983 1984
U.S. Policy for Central America: A Briefing 1984
A Chronology of Terrorist Attacks and Other Criminal Actions Against Maritime Targets 1983
Let's Not Punish Ourselves for Beirut 1983
New Modes of Conflict 1983
A Review of Recent Trends in International Terrorism and Nuclear Incidents Abroad 1983
Some Reflections on Recent Trends in Terrorism 1983
Subnational Conflict in the Mediterranean Region 1983
Terrorism: Between Prudence and Paranoia 1983
The Appeal of Nuclear Crimes to the Spectrum of Potential Adversaries 1982
Diplomats on the Front Line 1982
Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Volume I, Effects on the Incidence, Investigation, and Prosecution of Terrorist Activity 1982
Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Executive Summary 1982
Talking to Terrorists 1982
Terrorism and Beyond : An International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict 1982
Combatting Terrorism: Some Policy Implications 1981
Embassies Under Siege : A Review of 48 Embassy Takeovers, 1971-1980 1981
Fighting Terrorism: An Enduring Task 1981
International Terrorism: Choosing the Right Target 1981
Options for U.S. Policy on Terrorism 1981
The Psychological Implications of Media-Covered Terrorism 1981
A Strategy for Combatting Terrorism 1981
Testimony Before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Regarding Senate Bill Against Terrorism, January 27, 1978 1981
Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs 1980
Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs: Executive Summary 1980
The Potential Criminal Adversaries of Nuclear Programs: A Portrait 1980
The Study of Terrorism: Definitional Problems 1980
Terrorism in the 1980s 1980
Terrorism in the United States 1980
The Terrorist Mindset and Terrorist Decisionmaking: Two Areas of Ignorance 1979
Terrorists Seize Hostages in Arcadia, Laconia Commandos on Alert: A Scenario for Simulation in Negotiations with Terrorists Holding Hostages 1979
Traditions and Patterns of Vietnamese History 1979
Attributes of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs 1978
The Fall of South Vietnam: Statements by Vietnamese Military and Civilian Leaders 1978
International Terrorism: Trends and Potentialities 1978
Combatting International Terrorism: The Role of Congress 1977
Heuristic Modeling Using Rule-Based Computer Systems 1977
Numbered Lives: Some Statistical Observations From 77 International Hostage Episodes 1977
The Potential for Nuclear Terrorism 1977
RAND's Research on Terrorism 1977
U.S. Preparation for Future Low-Level Conflict 1977
Hostage Survival: Some Preliminary Observations 1976
International Terrorism: A Chronology (1974 Supplement) 1976
Terrorism and the Nuclear Safeguards Issue 1976
High Technology Terrorism and Surrogate War: The Impact of New Technology on Low-Level Violence 1975
Hostages and Their Captors: Friends and Lovers 1975
International Terrorism: A Chronology, 1968-1974 1975
Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? 1975
International Terrorism: A New Kind of Warfare 1974
Should Corporations Be Prevented from Paying Ransom? 1974
Soldiers Versus Gunmen: The Challenge of Urban Guerrilla Warfare 1974
Terrorism and Kidnapping 1974
Terrorism Works--Sometimes 1974
After the War 1973
''A Route for the Enemy To Escape,'' — Hanoi's View of the Ceasefire 1973
Forecasting Vietnam's Future: The Next Stage in the War 1972
Giap and the Seventh Son 1972
An Urban Strategy for Guerrillas and Governments 1972
Why the North Vietnamese Will Keep Fighting 1972
The Five Stages of Urban Guerrilla Warfare: Challenge of the 1970s 1971
A People's Army for South Vietnam: A Vietnamese Solution 1971
Structure and Strategy for Vietnam in the 1970's 1970
The Unchangeable War 1970
Why the North Vietnamese Keep Fighting 1970

Brian Michael Jenkins — Publications

Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics 2022

The Atomization of Political Violence 2021

The Collapse of Comity: Perilous Times in the Third Turbulent Century of Our Political Experiment 2021

Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan 2021

Exiting Extremism: What Binds People to Extremist Groups and How Organizations Help Them Leave 2021

The Origin and Evolution of the RAND Corporation's Terrorism Databases: Defining and Building a New Field of Knowledge 2021

The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism 2020

Paths to Destruction: A Group Portrait of America's Jihadists — Comparing Jihadist Travelers with Domestic Plotters 2020

Options for Dealing with Islamic State Foreign Fighters Currently Detained in Syria 2019

Waging War Beyond the Battlefield: Remarks at the Celebration of 50 Years at RAND 2019

Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans? 2018

Bush, Obama, And Trump: The Evolution Of U.S. Counterterrorist Policy Since 9/11 2017

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum 2017

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum 2017

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions 2017

The Origins of America's Jihadists 2017

Think Mass Shootings Are Terrorism? Careful What You Wish For 2017

Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013 2016

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet 2016

Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened 2016

A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis 2016

A Saudi-Led Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Welcome Muscle in the Fight Against Terrorism, Desert Mirage, or Bad Idea? 2016

Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed By Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq 2015

The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad 2015

The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning Western Fighters 2015

How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq 2015

The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security 2015

Inspiration, Not Infiltration: Jihadist Conspirators in the United States 2015

There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq: Addendum 2015

There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq 2015

War by What Means, According to Whose Rules? The Challenge for Democracies Facing Asymmetric Conflicts: Proceedings of a RAND–Israel Democracy Institute Workshop, December 3–4, 2014 2015

Brothers Killing Brothers: The Current Infighting Will Test al Qaeda's Brand 2014

The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War 2014

The Future of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act 2014

Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats and the Continuing Challenges of Domestic Intelligence Collection and Information Sharing 2014

When Jihadis Come Marching Home: The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria and Iraq 2014

An Incremental Tyranny 2013

The Role of Terrorism and Terror in Syria's Civil War 2013

The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States 2013

When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars 2013

Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory? 2012

Aviation Security: After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review 2012

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat 2012

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: Addendum 2012

Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy: Addendum 2011

Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy 2011

Is Al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working? 2011

The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism 2011

RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011 2011

Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11 2011

The Tenth Year: A Briefing on Terrorism Issues to New Members of the 112th Congress 2011

The al Qaeda-Inspired Terrorist Threat: An Appreciation of the Current Situation 2010

No Path to Glory: Deterring Homegrown Terrorism 2010

Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001 2010

Could Mexico Fail? 2009

Going Jihad: The Fort Hood Slayings and Home-Grown Terrorism 2009

The Lessons of Mumbai 2009

Savage Struggle on the Border: Can Mexico Fail? 2009

Terrorists Can Think Strategically: Lessons Learned From the Mumbai Attacks 2009

U.S. Policy in Afghanistan: Basic Questions -- Strategic Choices 2009

RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008 2008

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? 2008

Basic Principles for Homeland Security 2007

Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment 2007

Defining the Role of a National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism 2007

Fear Cannot Counter Terror 2006

The New Age of Terrorism 2006

RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 2006 2006

Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves 2006

Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror 2005

RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004 2004

Terrorism and the Security of Public Surface Transportation 2004

RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003 2003

Remarks Before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States 2003

Countering al Qaeda: An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy 2002

Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda 2002

RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002 2002

RAND Review: Vol. 25, No. 3, Fall 2001 2001

Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats 2001