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January 2022

commentary

Two Choices in Ukraine
Facing existential risk, Ukraine may consider unprecedented steps. Urgent measures might help it protect against a Russian invasion. And if the immediate threat were to ebb, Ukraine might use the time gained to prepare for potential future threats.
Jan 31, 2022

commentary

Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World
Scenarios are a useful tool for informing policy, guiding strategies, and accommodating future change. Using scenario planning to target potential problems or areas for development and building resilience can pinpoint robust policies that could be viable across a range of future states.
Jan 28, 2022
commentary

To Help Climate Migrants, We Must First Recognize Them
Despite the large and growing population displaced by extreme weather, there is no common definition of a “climate migrant.” Once we get a clearer sense of just who is a climate migrant, policy efforts should begin focusing on the full fabric of life in our communities, creating systems that will help migrants become a part of that fabric in safe and dignified ways.
Jan 28, 2022
commentary

The Future and Past of War and Disease
The U.S. government is actively reviewing its efforts to counter biological attacks and the Department of Defense is taking steps that could allow it to perform day-to-day operations during a pandemic, but it might not be preparing adequately for a future large-scale operation during a more-transmissible and lethal pandemic.
Jan 27, 2022
commentary

Shaping China's Ambitions
Managing a rivalry with a regionally ambitious, globally engaged peer competitor of China's economic heft and technological sophistication will be one of the most profound strategic tests the United States has ever faced. A major lesson from its last global rivalry is that mistaken impressions about the nature of the rival and the character of the rivalry can create momentum for dangerous policies.
Jan 24, 2022
commentary

The Premier Who Helped Change U.S.-Japan Relations
A Japanese politician who played an important part in the history of U.S.-Japan relations died recently, and chances are you've never heard of him. Kaifu Toshiki was Japan's prime minister from 1989 to 1991, a critical time in U.S.-Japan relations as the world was transitioning from the Cold War to the fog that lay beyond.
Jan 24, 2022
commentary

American Deterrence's Missing Half
If American deterrence fails, it may not be because adversaries doubt U.S. military capabilities so much as they doubt American willpower. Shifting those perceptions will require not just defense authorizations, but also repairing the social fabric here at home.
Jan 24, 2022
commentary

U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Silver Bullet?
U.S. military assistance to Ukraine now will at best be marginal in affecting the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It might be morally justified to help a U.S. partner at risk of aggression. But given the scale of the potential threat to Ukraine and its forces, the most effective way Washington can help is to work on finding a diplomatic solution.
Jan 21, 2022
commentary

Ukraine Needs Help Surviving Airstrikes, Not Just Killing Tanks
A Russian large-scale multidomain operation would be devastating for the Ukrainian military and people, and Ukraine should work to prevent that. But steps can also be taken to reduce the effects of the air and missile strikes that would likely lead off such an operation.
Jan 19, 2022
commentary

Biden's Rhetoric on Ukraine Has Been Quite Moderate. Here's What That Means
President Biden's public statements since December have focused on how further Russian invasion of Ukraine would result in material consequences. His rhetorical restraint may have important implications for the current conflict.
Jan 18, 2022
commentary

Could the U.S. Play Offense in China's Back Yard?
Relations with Cambodia and Laos have fallen victim to the U.S. administration's foreign policy priority of shared values over shared interests. This approach has failed to make headway in Cambodia and Laos, isolates the United States in a region where few countries are true democracies, and unnecessarily cedes ground to Beijing.
Jan 13, 2022
commentary

Speaking Aloud What NATO Has Left Unsaid Could Help Ease Ukraine-Russia Impasse
A statement that NATO has no intention to offer Ukraine membership at present should only be made in return for a tangible drawdown of Russian forces on the border. It concedes nothing to declare that NATO is not planning to do something it has no intention of doing anyway.
Jan 13, 2022
commentary

Is Russia's Su-75 'Checkmate' Aircraft a Case of Vapor Marketing?
During a Moscow air show last summer, Russia rolled out a mockup of the Su-75, a multipurpose fighter-bomber designed to compete in the global marketplace. But given the Russian aerospace sector's difficulties in developing, let alone delivering, advanced combat aircraft, prospective buyers should consider a range of options to meet defense needs.
Jan 6, 2022
commentary

Taiwan and Six Potential New Year's Resolutions for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance
How might the United States and Japan prepare for possible conflict with China over Taiwan, and ensure forces are postured to operate together? The alliance could benefit from greater clarity, and practical conversations could make a better and stronger alliance in the new year.
Jan 5, 2022
blog

What Sounds Do a Million Random Digits Make?
The title of RAND's 1955 classic, A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates, doesn't exactly dance off the page. But Paul Dunham, a sound artist in New Zealand, thought the work could make its own kind of music.
Jan 5, 2022
essay

Citizen Science Helps Communities Participate in, Understand, and Trust Science
Good citizen science brings a community together and helps it prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. A RAND guide takes non-expert investigators from the early stages of defining their questions and setting their goals, through building their teams, to planning for action.
Jan 4, 2022
commentary

South Korea's Presidential Election: Beyond Mudslinging, What Gives?
The 2022 South Korean presidential campaign has focused largely on personal attacks and allegations of corruption with little attention being paid to pressing issues facing the nation. The absence of meaningful policy debate and clarity on policy deliverables will continue to leave the South Korean electorate largely uninformed about what may be the most important decision they will make in 2022.
Jan 3, 2022
commentary

Resolutions and Optimism from the Santa Monica Community Going into the New Year
Center to Advance Racial Equity Policy director Rhianna Rogers reflects on her 2022 resolution: Draw together folks from different cultural perspectives to speak with and learn from one another, and work together to find ways to make the world better for all.
Jan 3, 2022