April 2022

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Preparing for a Cyberattack Starts at the Local Level

The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine has highlighted the need for federal, state, and local level emergency managers to prepare to respond to a cyberattack with widespread impacts that significantly disrupt critical infrastructure.

Clara Decerbo, Grace Hindmarch, et al.

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Rebuilding Ukraine

By leveraging better investment conditions and reforms and broad international support, Ukraine could carry out a well-executed reconstruction program once the fighting ends. It might repair much of the war damage and help Ukraine move into the ranks of faster-growing European economies.

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Khrystyna Holynska, et al.

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Climate Change Will Transform How We Live, but These Tech and Policy Experts See Reason for Optimism

To slow climate change and adapt to the damage already underway, the world will have to shift how it generates and uses energy, transports people and goods, designs buildings, and grows food. That starts with embracing innovation and change.

Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert, Elisabeth Gilmore

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Reopening Old Wounds: Two Stories, One Lesson

The shocking events unfolding in Ukraine have reopened old wounds for two RAND researchers. Their personal stories stand as testaments that the traumas inflicted by Russia's war on Ukraine will echo for decades to come.

Alyssa Demus, Obaid Younossi

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Russian Mercenaries, Online Extremism, the Commercial Space Market: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Russia's use of mercenaries, understanding how extremist movements operate online, trends in the commercial space market, and more.

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Supporting the People of Ukraine Through Sister Cities

The Los Angeles City Council recently voted to adopt the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv as a Los Angeles sister city, which could speed the flow of goods and services to the war-torn Ukrainian capital.

Sohaela Amiri

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Russian Cyberattacks May Be Coming. What Might Be an Optimal Strategy for Responding?

Russia appears poised to make a first move against the United States and its allies in cyberspace. A savvy U.S. response that is deliberately measured and accompanied by the right message could end this fight after the first round.

Dmitri Alperovitch, Samuel Charap @scharap

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Book Review: 'Escalation and Deescalation of Crises, Armed Conflicts, and Wars'

The evolving crisis in Ukraine has generated much discussion about whether Moscow would escalate the conflict, whether in frustration at the slow progress of its military operations, or in response to actions of other states, even possibly resorting to nuclear weapons. But what do Russian sources suggest about escalation?

Clint Reach

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Russia Does Not Seem to Be After Ukraine's Gas Reserves

There seems to be very little reason to believe that the true stakes of the war in Ukraine are the country's natural gas reserves, as some have speculated. Ukrainian gas fields appear too small to justify the costs of the invasion, too hard to keep, and almost impossible for Russia to exploit.

Krystyna Marcinek @KMMarcinek

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Employing Insurgency in Ukraine, U.S. Hospital Prices, Reaching the Middle Class: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how insurgency could give Ukraine an edge over Russia, repurposing commercial buildings to help address L.A.’s housing crisis, Americans’ options for reaching the middle class, and more.

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Russia and Ukraine: The Economic Consequences of Peace

Amid some hopeful signs in Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire talks, it may be useful to keep in mind that the West could gain substantial economic leverage to influence outcomes during and after Russia's war against Ukraine. How it uses this leverage could have far-reaching consequences.

Randy Bregman, William Courtney @courtneywmh, et al.

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Why Most of the Indo-Pacific Tiptoes Around Russia

Since the start of Russia's increasingly brutal war in Ukraine, the West has ramped up pressure on the rest of the world to condemn Moscow's belligerence and join sanctions against Russia and its regime. In the vast Indo-Pacific region, however, the West's message has fallen flat.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Russia's Tragic Failure to Reform Its Economy

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions will likely devastate Russia's economy. If the country had taken a more productive economic course over the past two decades, it might be looking toward a different future—one in which economic reforms had more tightly integrated Russia with the economically advanced countries, enhanced Russian influence and power, and built global trust.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

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Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?

While insurgency rarely offers a path to early victory, a campaign of popular resistance that supports the continuing conventional battle could give overmatched Ukraine an edge in its fight against Russian occupiers.

James Dobbins

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Russia, Ukraine, and the Misuse of History

History as playbook has been used to paint the Ukraine conflict as the start of a larger battle for Europe. But even if it is Putin's intent to knock over one domino of a European country after another, the Russian Army—unlike the Soviet Army of old—simply does not have the capacity to do that.

Gian Gentile, Raphael S. Cohen