November 2023

commentary

From the Ashes of Hamas-Israel War, Can Economics Drive Peace?

The economic costs of the violence in Gaza threaten Israel's economic future. For the Palestinians, the costs may be so large that they undermine the possibility of an independent Palestinian state. But the magnitude of these economic losses may, paradoxically, forge a new pathway toward peace once the fighting stops.

Daniel Egel

commentary

South Korea's Surprisingly Successful China Policy

When South Korea's president, Yoon Suk-yeol, entered office last year, the odds rose that a frostier bilateral relationship with China might take hold. But for now, at least, Yoon and his government have successfully managed China, and perhaps offered a road map for how others can too.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks

No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, and could be a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.

Bruce W. Bennett @bwbennett

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The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix

Today's terrorist threat matrix seems more like an abstract expressionist painting. To those accustomed to traditional landscapes, it is difficult to discern what it depicts. The fighting in Gaza may well provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region, the magnitude and shape of which will depend on the course of the conflict.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Political Manifestos Should Do Better Than “Legalise It”

After years of political deadlock, a new era for drug policy in the Netherlands seems to be on the horizon. At least two factors are increasing politicians' appetite for change: increased awareness of the problems of drug-related organized crime in the Netherlands, and Dutch drug policy no longer being ahead of the curve.

Stijn Hoorens @StijnHoorens

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Human Rights Issues in Russia May Offer U.S. Leverage

The 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights reminds us of how much human rights diplomacy has reshaped and enriched international relations. Inspired by this, Washington might pursue more proactive human rights diplomacy with Moscow. If the United States takes this path, how might it proceed?

William Courtney @courtneywmh

blog

'Israel's 9/11,' Promoting the 988 Hotline, the Future of Space: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the Oct. 7 attack wasn't Israel's 9/11, humanity's future approach to space, the pressing need to ensure more people know about the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, and more.

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The West's Incoherent Critique of Israel's Gaza Strategy

The battlefield geography of Gaza means that any operation there would turn into a bloody, highly destructive ground operation, with a lot of civilians caught in the crossfire. While Israel can mitigate some of these effects, neither Israel nor any other military can prevent them entirely. In this war, there is no happy medium.

Raphael S. Cohen

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What the REF 2021 Impact Case Studies Can Reveal About UK Research

A new study on the Research Excellence Framework 2021 impact case studies demonstrates the rich and varied impacts of UK research, and the extensive contribution of UK institutions and the academic community both nationally and globally.

Cagla Stevenson, Salil Gunashekar, et al.

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Budget Models Are Underselling the Benefits of Solving Climate Problems

When Congress considers a new law or spending package, analysts calculate its likely impact on the federal budget. When it comes to climate change legislation, those numbers don't capture the whole picture. Potential savings and other benefits get significantly underestimated.

Flannery Dolan, Robert J. Lempert @RobertLempert

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How Do We Stop Relying on 911 to Handle Mental Health Crises?

Almost half of Americans are afraid that 911 is not a safe option to call for someone undergoing a behavioral health problem—and with good reason. Broader advertising and outreach about the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline is necessary. People simply can't call what they don't know about.

Stephanie Brooks Holliday

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Biden Should Call China's Bluff on Responsible AI to Safeguard the 2024 Elections

Few in the Biden administration will be surprised to learn that Beijing is lying about its intentions and activities when it comes to influence operations. But lies, maybe even especially blatant ones, present diplomatic opportunity.

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

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Cherish Allies While You Can: What Should the U.S. Do To Support the Incoming Polish Government?

Plenty has been said about what lessons Poland's recent elections hold for pro-democracy forces across the wider West, as well as the message this election sends about a feared inevitability of autocracy, and the significance of this opposition win for European security. But what does the election of an opposition alliance mean for U.S. relations with Warsaw?

Krystyna Marcinek @KMMarcinek

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An Affordable Energy Transition Will Require Supportive and Sensible Regulation

The transition to decarbonize the grid and to electrify end uses to reduce emissions will be challenging, and customer bills may increase in the short term. Regulators can help to keep utilities financially healthy and make a smoother energy transition possible.

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Brian Wong

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Why the Oct. 7 Attack Wasn't Israel's 9/11

There are some basic strategic lessons to be learned from the U.S. response to 9/11 that are applicable to Israel's unfolding operation in Gaza. But in many key ways, the two conflicts couldn't be further apart.

Raphael S. Cohen