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This report analyzes the effects of an innovative and controversial program — voluntary accelerated vehicle retirement — that is part of California’s plan for complying with federal clean-air standards by the required date of 2010. Under this program, whose implementation is in doubt, during each year from 2001 to 2010 as many as 75,000 light-duty vehicles (LDVs) that are at least 15 years old would be purchased in the greater Los Angeles area and then scrapped. The authors’ analysis of program effects accounts for LDV-market responses including increases in used-LDV prices and consequent migration of vehicles into the region where LDVs are scrapped. The analysis predicts that program-induced increases in used-LDV prices will be between $22 and $271 in 2010; the best point estimate is $66 per LDV. While predicted emission reductions are largest for 2005, the program would almost certainly reduce emissions by between 8 and 28 tons per day in 2010, with actual reductions probably closer to the upper end. The authors analyze program cost effectiveness, conclude that a vehicle-scrapping program should be implemented, and suggest ways the program might be improved.

Table of Contents

  • The Institute for Civil Justice

  • Board of Overseers

  • Preface

  • Figures

  • Tables

  • Summary

  • Acknowledgements

    Acknowledgments

  • Chapter 1

    Vehicle Retirement and California's Air Pollution Challenge

  • Chapter 2

    Market Effects of the Program: Conceptual Analysis

  • Chapter 3

    California and South Coast Vehicle Stocks in 1998

  • Chapter 4

    Predicting Effects of the Program: Overview

  • Chapter 5

    Predicting Effects of the Program: Details

  • Chapter 6

    Predicted Effects in the Base Case

  • Chapter 7

    Ranges of Effects of the VAVR Program

  • Chapter 8

    Cost Effectiveness of the VAVR Program

  • Chapter 9

    Lessons for Policymakers

  • Estimating the Average Price of Used Vehicles in California

  • References

The research described in this report was sponsored in part by the Public Policy Institute of California. This research was conducted by the RAND Institute for Civil Justice.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

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