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This book is a collection of essays by senior defense analysts at RAND, all of whom have been deeply involved in post-Cold War defense planning studies for the Department of Defense. The essays cover a wide spectrum of issues, including alternative strategies and structures for defense planning, conventional deterrence of Third World opponents, modernizing weapon systems and force structures, and planning under uncertainty (a major theme of the book as a whole). Some of the essays are sympathetic to current U.S. methods and policies, whereas others are critical, arguing that radical changes are needed. Taken as a whole, the book provides a provocative cross section of work by experts who understand both the theoretical issues and the practical considerations that the Department of Defense must address. The book will be of interest to policymakers, students of defense planning, and other readers seeking to understand the challenges and choices confronting defense planners as we approach the end of the century.

Table of Contents

  • Part One

    Introduction

  • Chapter 1

    Introduction

    Paul K. Davis

  • Part Two

    Principles for Defense Planning

  • Chapter 2

    Planning Under Uncertainty Then and Now: Paradigms Lost and Paradigms Emerging

    Paul K. Davis

  • Chapter 3

    Objective-Based Planning

    Glenn A. Kent and William E. Simons

  • Chapter 4

    Institutionalizing Planning for Adaptiveness

    Paul K. Davis

  • Chapter 5

    The Discipline Gap and Other Reasons for Humility and Realism in Defense Planning

    Kevin Lewis

  • Part Three

    Planning at the Strategic Level

  • Chapter 6

    Protecting the Great Transition

    Paul K. Davis

  • Chapter 7

    Nonstandard Contingencies for Defense Planning

    Richard L. Kugler

  • Chapter 8

    Improving Deterrence in the Post-Cold War Era: Some Theory and Implications for Defense Planning

    Paul K. Davis

  • Chapter 9

    Operations Other Than War

    Jennifer Morrison Taw and Bruce Hoffman

  • Chapter 10

    Priorities for Ballistic Missile Defense

    Russ Shaver

  • Chapter 11

    Future U.S. and Russian Nuclear Forces: Applying Traditional Analysis Methods in an Era of Cooperation

    Dean Wilkening

  • Part Four

    Planning at the Operational or Campaign Level

  • Chapter 12

    Conventional Campaign Analysis of Major Regional Conflicts

    by Fred Frostic and Christopher J. Bowie

  • Chapter 13

    The Use of Long-Range Bombers in a Changing World: a Classical Exercise in Systems Analysis

    Glenn C. Buchan

  • Chapter 14

    A First Look at Defense Options for Poland

    Charles T. Kelley, Jr., Daniel B. Fox, and Barry A. Wilson

  • Chapter 15

    Not Merely Planning for the Last War

    Bruce W. Bennett, Sam Gardiner, and Daniel B. Fox

  • Chapter 16

    Extended Counterforce Options for Coping with Tactical Ballistic Missiles

    Richard Mesic

  • Chapter 17

    Military Issues in Multinational Operations

    Margaret Cecchine Harrell and Robert Howe

  • Part Five

    Building the Defense Program

  • Chapter 18

    Assessing the Affordability of Fighter Aircraft Force Modernization

    William Stanley

  • Chapter 19

    Modernizing Airpower Projection Capabilities: Looking to Get More out of Less

    Edward R. Harshberger and Russ Shaver

  • Chapter 20

    Assessing the Structure and Mix of Future Active and Reserve Army Forces

    Bernard D. Rostker, Bruce W. Don, and Kenneth Watman

  • Chapter 21

    Strategic Mobility in the Post-Cold War Era

    David Kassing

  • Chapter 22

    Reinventing the DOD Logistics System for the Post-Cold War Era

    Rick Eden, John Dumond, John Folkeson, John Halliday, and Nancy Moore

  • Chapter 23

    Defining a Balanced Investment Program for Coping with Tactical Ballistic Missiles

    Richard Mesic

Most of the research underlying the papers in this book was accomplished in RAND's three national-security federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs): Project AIR FORCE, the Arroyo Center, and the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), which are sponsored by the Air Force, the Army, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Staff, respectively. The book itself was organized in RAND's Defense and Technology Planning Department and was made possible with substantial corporate funds and through the auspices of the RAND Graduate School of Policy Studies. RAND's national-security divisions also contributed research-support funds to cover some of the administrative expenses.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

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