Democratization in the Arab World

Democratization Will Test How Well Islamic and Secular Parties Share Political Space

• The parameters of political Islam in Arab countries undergoing political change have yet to be defined. They may follow paths similar to Turkey and Indonesia, where Islamist parties have come to play active roles in electoral politics within democratic systems. Expression of religiosity is likely to rise in post-authoritarian Arab countries, but this should be distinguished from demand for Islamist political systems.

Militaries Will Need to Be Subordinated to Civilian Authorities

• Gradual approaches to shifting the balance of power from military to civilian authorities have contributed to stability during transitions in which militaries have the capability and potential incentives to thwart democratization. Allowing militaries to retain some special prerogatives for a period of time can be helpful, while at the same time building up civilian authorities' capabilities to exercise effective oversight.

Political Inclusiveness Can Stabilize a Transition

• Inclusion of formerly banned parties or Islamist parties has helped to ensure smooth transitions and enhance a new regime's legitimacy, even where decisions to open the political playing field seemed risky at the time. Establishing democratic ground rules is more important than who wins or loses initial elections.

Economic Problems May Complicate Transitions but Are Not Likely to Derail Democratization

• In many countries, dissatisfaction with economic conditions helped drive regime change. Though expectations of economic improvement after revolution are high, past experience suggests that failure to improve living standards does not cause reversals to authoritarianism even where it contributes to political turmoil.