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Because test scores that are part of its enlisted promotion system are not standardized, the U.S. Air Force effectively emphasizes longevity and test-taking ability differently across and within specialties, and this emphasis varies randomly over time. The random aspects of the promotion reward system mean that the Air Force cannot be sure that it is selecting individuals with the highest potential to fill positions of increased grade and responsibility. Furthermore, not standardizing scores means that some specialties randomly produce higher percentages of senior non-commissioned officers. The authors discuss a range of outcomes that the Air Force could achieve by adopting various standardization strategies. They propose a modification that would not change the policy of equal selection opportunity but would affect selection outcomes within specialties. They recommend that the Air Force implement a standardization strategy that will produce predictable outcomes that are consistent with its personnel priorities and policies.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
The Weighted Airman Promotion System: Motivation, Mechanics, Reality, and Theory
Chapter Three
Standardizing Test Scores
Chapter Four
Testing Impact and Selection Timing
Chapter Five
Effects
Chapter Six
Conclusions and Recommendation
Appendix A
The Impact of WAPS Factors by Grade and AFSC
Appendix B
AFSC Titles
Appendix C
WAPS Changes over Time
Appendix D
Periodic WAPS Revalidation
Appendix E
Four Approaches to Measuring the Impacts of WAPS Factors
Appendix F
Multivariate Models to Predict Selection Rates to E5
Appendix G
Multivariate Models to Predict Selection Rates to E6
Appendix H
Multivariate Models to Predict Selection Rates to E7
Appendix I
ACT, SAT, and ASVAB Approaches to Standardization
Research conducted by
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force and conducted by RAND Project AIR FORCE.
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