Victory Has a Thousand Fathers

Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency

Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Beth Grill

ResearchPublished Jun 18, 2010

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Insurgency has been the most prevalent form of armed conflict since at least 1949, as well as the subject of countless historical and contemporary studies. Contemporary discourse on the subject is voluminous and often contentious, but to date there has been a dearth of systematic evidence supporting the counterinsurgency (COIN) approaches, practices, and tenets that make for successful operations. Relying on a collection of the 30 most recent resolved insurgencies, along with a bank of factors that helped or hindered the COIN force in each case and in each phase of each case, several commonalities emerge. For instance, the data show that good COIN practices tend to “run in packs” and that the balance of selected good and bad practices perfectly predicts the outcome of a conflict. The importance of popular support is confirmed, but the ability to interdict tangible support (such as new personnel, materiel, and financing) is the single best predictor of COIN force success. Twenty distinct approaches to COIN are rigorously tested against the historical record, providing valuable lessons for U.S. engagement in and support for COIN operations. A companion volume, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, presents in-depth profiles of each of the insurgencies.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2010
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 188
  • Paperback Price: $24.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-4961-2
  • Document Number: MG-964-OSD

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RAND Style Manual
Paul, Christopher, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, RAND Corporation, MG-964-OSD, 2010. As of October 15, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG964.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Paul, Christopher, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG964.html. Also available in print form.
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The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

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