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Toward Affordable Systems II

Portfolio Management for Army Science and Technology Programs Under Uncertainties

by Brian G. Chow, Richard Silberglitt, Scott Hiromoto, Caroline R. Milne, Christina Panis

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Consistent with U.S. Department of Defense acquisition policy since 2003, U.S. Army leadership has called for consideration of lifecycle cost at system design and technology development stages so that adjustments can be made early enough to ensure affordability. This companion to Toward Affordable Systems: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Army Science and Technology Programs (Brian G. Chow, Richard Silberglitt, and Scott Hiromoto, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-761-A, 2009) describes the continued development and demonstration of a method and model to incorporate lifecycle cost into the portfolio analysis and management process for Army Science and Technology (S&T) programs. Germane to the portfolio management process mandated by the Department of Defense and currently being implemented by the Army, this monograph demonstrates the application of the method and model in meeting Army capability gap requirements. In addition to the gap space coverage and the linear programming model described in the first monograph, the companion monograph introduces a simulation that takes into account the uncertainty regarding the success of S&T projects in meeting their goals and leading to fielded systems. The combination of this simulation with the linear programming model allows the identification of capability gap requirements that will lead to the development of new S&T projects, and this combination provides a means to develop an optimum portfolio that balances the remaining S&T and lifecycle costs for existing and new projects. Moreover, the process will create a new opportunity for dialogue among stakeholders and allow different viewpoints and perspectives to be analyzed objectively in the process of building an S&T portfolio.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    The Expanded Method Including Models

  • Chapter Three

    Applications of the Gap-Space Method

  • Chapter Four

    Applications of the Full Method

  • Chapter Five

    Findings and Recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Estimates of Expected Values

  • Appendix B

    Estimation of Marginal Implementation Cost for Systems Derivable from ATOs

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The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army and conducted by RAND Arroyo Center.

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