Latest Publications from RAND

Buying Time Against AI Proliferation: The Economics of Governed Access

The author describes a formal model of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and proliferation that focuses on the demand for AI capability.

Tobias Sytsma

Countering Model Distillation: Limits and Alternatives

Artificial intelligence model distillation (training new models on outputs of more capable ones) could affect U.S. frontier model advantage. New policy tools could augment such technical countermeasures as raising costs or reducing model quality.

Michael J. D. Vermeer, Brian A. Jackson

Operational reliance on AI in supply chains and emerging insurance risks

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming embedded in supply chains. This report examines how that changes operational reliance, resilience, and insurance risk across logistics, transport, and warehousing.

Elie Alhajjar, Youmna Hashem, Alec Ross, Sasha Romanosky

An Enduring Partnership to Address the Department of the Air Force’s Greatest Challenges (2026 version)

RAND Project AIR FORCE's (PAF's) mission is to help the Department of the Air Force (DAF) leaders make informed, research-based decisions to meet its challenges.

When Counties Invest in Early Childhood: Successes, Challenges, and Lessons from Harris County, Texas

The authors evaluated the implementation of the Early Childhood Impact Fund (ECIF) in Harris County, Texas. ECIF provided $15 million to programs serving children from birth to age 5, their caregivers, and early childhood professionals.

Elaine Lin Wang, Karen Christianson, Jill S. Cannon, Jonathan Schweig, Adaeze Ibeanu

Preparing Students for What Comes Next: Educator and Student Perspectives on Career-Connected Learning in K–12 Schools

The authors analyze data from three RAND survey panels to examine career-connected learning in kindergarten through grade 12 schools in academic year 2025–2026 using the perspectives of district leaders, school leaders, and high school students.

Benjamin K. Master, Melissa Kay Diliberti, Cristina Alvarez, AK Keskin, Elizabeth D. Steiner

Breaking Glass, Missing Hands: Addressing Workforce Constraints That Threaten the Resilience of the Space Industrial Base

U.S. space defense industrial base workforce shortfalls threaten the ability to reconstitute space capabilities after a conflict. The U.S. Space Force must invest now in STEM pipelines, technician training, and automation to build surge capacity.

Alexandra Gerber, Jessie Riposo, Melanie A. Zaber, Bonnie L. Triezenberg

Tax Policy Options to Promote Employment and Mitigate Federal Revenue Impacts in the Age of AI

AI may lower federal revenue from labor taxes. The authors of this paper propose a six-category framework of tax code reform options that could stabilize revenue and protect jobs.

Carter C. Price, Jeffrey B. Wenger

Hardening Critical Infrastructure Software in an Era of Rapid AI Advancement: An Urgent Call for Coordinated Action

This paper provides expert analysis on artificial intelligence–accelerated vulnerability discovery and the structural hardening of critical infrastructure software.

Gopal P. Sarma, Rachel Steratore, Sunny D. Bhatt, Greg McKelvey, Jr., Michael Jacob

Emergency Management Research: Hard to Find, Even More Difficult to Organize

This report describes an attempt to identify and map a body of emergency management research to support the National Disaster and Emergency Management University.

Jessica Jensen, Aaron Clark-Ginsberg, Vanessa Parks, Lea Sabbag, Michael Vincent Ryan, Travis Merrill

Achieving AI Model Weight Security Level 3 (SL3)

RAND proposes Security Level 3 (SL3), a framework of 262 security controls to protect artificial intelligence (AI) model weights against organized cybercrime and insider threats, achievable within six to 12 months.

Jair Aguirre, Phillip Robertson, Steven F. Comer, Matthew J. Malone, Wesley Hurd

Evaluating the Case for Solar Panel Recycling Mandates in the United States

The authors analyze major rationales for government intervention to increase recycling and whether a mandate to recycle end-of-life photovoltaic modules (i.e., solar panels) can be justified on environmental, national security, or economic grounds.

Scott Behmer, Jo Caulkins, Andrew Star, Kelly Klima, Tom LaTourrette, Robin Wang

Federal Revenue When AI Replaces Labor: An Examination of Economic Scenarios with Highly Capable Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) replacing human labor could sharply reduce U.S. federal revenue, especially if workers are not reemployed or AI is cheap. Proactive fiscal policy is needed to manage these risks.

Carter C. Price, Akshaya Suresh

Leveraging the Federal Select Agent Program to Oversee Nucleic Acids: Volume 2, Potential Benefits and Burdens, Recommendations, and Implementation Considerations

The increasing availability of synthetic genetic materials poses public health risks that may warrant regulation, but in deciding how to do so, it is also necessary to weigh the burdens on industry and the research community.

Matt Sharkey, Anna Jean Wirth, John P. Tarangelo, Gerald L. Epstein

Why Employers Struggle to Manage the Cost of Their Employee Health Benefits—and What Might Help: A Policy Brief on Cost Control in Self-Insured Employer Health Plans

Two-thirds of U.S. workers have employer-sponsored, self-insured health plans. Interviews with market insiders identify five barriers to cost control in these plans and review potential solutions, including improved federal transparency rules.

Christine Buttorff, Petra W. Rasmussen, Mallika Bhandarkar, Mekdes Shiferaw, Erin Lindsey Duffy

Leveraging the Federal Select Agent Program to Oversee Nucleic Acids: Volume 1, Analysis of Opportunities to Control Genomes, Genes, and Gene Fragments Through the Federal Select Agent Program’s Authorities

The increasing availability of synthetic genetic materials may pose public health risks that may warrant regulation to ensure that certain materials are accessible only to researchers who will use them responsibly.

Matt Sharkey, Anna Jean Wirth, John P. Tarangelo, Derek Roberts, Gerald L. Epstein, James M. Anderson

Reduced-Credit Bachelor’s Degrees in Ohio: Opportunities, Constraints, and Field-Level Feasibility

Ohio’s education policymakers are considering whether some bachelor’s degree programs can be completed in fewer than the traditional 120 semester credits. The authors examine the feasibility of reduced-credit bachelor’s degree programs in Ohio.

Jason C. Lee, Jenna W. Kramer, Peter Nguyen, Jonah Kushner, Sichen Shawn Chao, Min Jung Kim

Quantitative and Policy Analyses Related to Medicare Global Surgical Services

This report presents findings from four analyses of claims data conducted from September 2023 to September 2025, some of which update prior RAND research, in support of efforts to improve the valuation of global surgical services.

Andrew W. Mulcahy, Stephanie Dellva, Alice Y. Kim, Cameron Klig, Asa Wilks, Joachim O. Hero

Building a Defense-in-Depth Biosecurity Strategy for the AI Era

The authors develop a layered mitigation strategy for responding to the threat of misusing artificial intelligence–enabled biology. They examine mitigations’ strengths and weaknesses, describe areas of mutual reinforcement, and propose next steps.

Steph Guerra, Aurelia Attal-Juncqua, John P. Tarangelo, Casey Aveggio, Katie Dammer, David Glickstein

Personal Protective Equipment Prioritization and Demand: Using Occupational Characteristics to Understand Risk and Benefits

This report presents an occupation-based framework to estimate vital workforce size and personal protective equipment demand during a pandemic. An interactive dashboard supports scenario-based planning at the national, state, and regional levels.

Aaron Strong, Henry H. Willis, Casey Aveggio, Cheryl K. Montemayor