This Note assesses the potential health care costs of treating skin cancer that could result from increases in ultraviolet radiation (UV). It reviews the medical and epidemiological findings on the causes and natural history of the three major types of skin cancer, their modes of treatment, and their expected outcomes. These findings are organized in the form of probability trees of alternative outcomes, and provide inputs to a prototype computer model of the costs of treatment. The model illustrates the quantitative effects of hypothesized increases in UV levels on the incidence and direct cost of treating skin cancer.
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