The Effect of Untied Development Loans on the U.S. Balance of Payments.

by Robert L. Slighton, David S. C. Chu, Richard V.L. Cooper

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback103 pages $25.00 $20.00 20% Web Discount

The first-round and total effects of untied development lending on the U.S. balance of payments are estimated for a variety of assumptions as to additionality and export procurement. A unilateral untying of development lending is estimated to cause a first-round loss of U.S. exports equal to 46 to 53 percent of the U.S. loan program. Reciprocal untying of all Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries is estimated to produce a first-round U.S. balance-of-payments loss equal to 30 to 41 percent of the U.S. loan program if the ratio of U.S. aid to that of other DAC nations is the same as in 1969. These first-round balance-of-payments losses will be offset partly by subsequent respending by nations enjoying first-round balance-of-payments gains. The undiscounted value of these respending effects is estimated to be 7 to 15 percent of the U.S. first-round loss. In these estimates, the major source of uncertainty relates to additionality rather than to export procurement patterns. 103 pp.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.