Methods for Estimating the Volume and Energy Demand of Freight Transport.

Dennis P. Tihansky

ResearchPublished 1972

Explores methods for discovering what determines freight volume (particularly that of rail, the carrier mode with the largest share of freight traffic) to permit prediction of freight demand and, ultimately, the demand for energy in the future. The methods are (1) graphical analysis, (2) ordinary least-squares regression analysis, (3) stepwise regression analysis, and (4) factor analysis; they are applied to a database of 1939-1968. GNP proved a good predictor of freight volume for all modes except rail. For the latter, coal production and durables manufacture are much better indicators. The volumes of motor vehicle, air, and, to a lesser degree, pipeline transport are particularly sensitive to prices. No single method proved entirely satisfactory; use of all four is probably necessary for making reliable predictions. (See also R-804.) 77 pp. Bibliog.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1972
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 77
  • Paperback Price: $25.00
  • Document Number: R-0988-NSF

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RAND Style Manual
Tihansky, Dennis P., Methods for Estimating the Volume and Energy Demand of Freight Transport. RAND Corporation, R-0988-NSF, 1972. As of September 17, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R0988.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Tihansky, Dennis P., Methods for Estimating the Volume and Energy Demand of Freight Transport. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1972. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R0988.html. Also available in print form.
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