OTM 6 Demand Model Estimation

Mode-Destination-Time Period and Frequency Models

by James Fox, Bhanu Patruni, Andrew Daly

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The Ørestad Transport Model (OTM) is used to forecast demand for passenger and freight transport across the Greater Copenhagen area. This report describes work to extend the OTM passenger demand models to predict the choice of time of travel for car drivers. The work has been undertaken so that the OTM model can be used to assess congestion charging policies where the charge varies according to the time of day. The report is technical in nature, describing how time period alternatives have been defined for the modelling, the results of the model development for each of the seven travel purposes represented in the model, and the results of the model validation.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Model structure

  • Chapter Three

    Time period combination alternatives

  • Chapter Four

    Model development

  • Chapter Five

    Home-work model

  • Chapter Six

    Home-business model

  • Chapter Seven

    Home-education model

  • Chapter Eight

    Home-shopping model

  • Chapter Nine

    Home-leisure model

  • Chapter Ten

    Non-home-based business model

  • Chapter Eleven

    Non-home-based other model

  • Chapter Twelve

    Frequency models

  • Chapter Thirteen

    Summary

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for Vejdirektoratet (Danish Road Directorate) and conducted by RAND Europe.

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