This report describes a new method for detecting development of commercial interest in technology areas (referred to as technology emergence) by analyzing the network of connections among different technology areas, using the definitions set forth by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Technology emergence is observed through quantitative analysis of the cumulative number of filings in a specific technology area.

Identification and Analysis of Technology Emergence Using Patent Classification

Christopher A. Eusebi, Richard Silberglitt

ResearchPublished Sep 17, 2014

This report describes a method for detecting, characterizing, and analyzing the development of commercial interest in technology areas, which we call technology emergence. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office's formal categorization system has been used to classify literally millions of technical documents. The classification is not merely a single technical descriptor, but a categorization of all the areas of science and technology advanced in the document as recognized by the patent examiner. A rapid increase in patent applications filed related to a specific classification thus can represent its dissemination into new and often unrelated technological areas. This rapid increase in patent application filing is a signal of technology emergence and industry acceptance. By placing their patent portfolios on s-curves, a patenting organization or sponsor can learn: (1) the level of interest in the broader patenting community in the technology areas in which the organization (and its staff) are patenting; and (2) how early or late their specific patents are with respect to when the technology area first emerged.

Key Findings

U.S. Patent and Trademark Office Data Can Guide Analysis

  • A rapid increase in patent applications filed related to a specific classification can represent its dissemination into new and often unrelated technological areas. This rapid increase in patent application filing is a signal of technology emergence and industry acceptance.

S-Curves Indicate Technology Emergence

  • S-curves of patent applications and issued patents often appear when classifications and subclassifications form an increasing number of linkages to other classifications and subclassifications.
  • Through analysis of the emergence s-curve, by categorizing patents in terms of their distance from the year of emergence, we define a potential value metric for technology transfer staff in government, nonprofit institutions, or private-sector firms seeking to maximize the value of their patent portfolios or their chances of winning in the event of litigation.
  • The same analysis of the position of patents in time with respect to the year of emergence provides a means to analyze patent portfolios of individuals or organizations with respect to whether they are "leading" or "following" the commercial interest in the field.
  • Comparison of the tendency of organizations to be "leading" or "following," in specific areas in which they patent provides a metric of the novelty of their work in those areas.
  • Analysis of the spread of technology into new areas provides a means of identifying areas into which technologies may be most likely to move in the future.

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web-Only
  • Year: 2014
  • Pages: 12
  • Document Number: RR-629-OSD

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Eusebi, Christopher A. and Richard Silberglitt, Identification and Analysis of Technology Emergence Using Patent Classification, RAND Corporation, RR-629-OSD, 2014. As of October 11, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR629.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Eusebi, Christopher A. and Richard Silberglitt, Identification and Analysis of Technology Emergence Using Patent Classification. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2014. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR629.html.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

The study was sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and was conducted within the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.