Commercial and Military Applications and Timelines for Quantum Technology

Quantum technology is grouped into three broad categories: quantum sensing, quantum communication, and quantum computing

• Quantum sensing refers to the ability to use quantum mechanics to build extremely precise sensors. This is the application of quantum technology considered to have the nearest-term operational potential.
• The primary near-term application of quantum communication technology is security against eavesdroppers, primarily through a method known as quantum key distribution (QKD). Longer-term applications include networking together quantum computers and sensors.
• Quantum computing refers to computers that could, in principle, perform certain computations vastly more quickly than is fundamentally possible with a standard computer. Certain problems that are completely infeasible to solve on a standard computer could become feasible on a quantum computer.

Every subfield of quantum technology potentially has major implications for national security

• Some of the primary applications for quantum sensing include position, navigation, and timing and possibly intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
• Quantum communication technology could use QKD to protect sensitive encrypted communications against hostile interception, although some experts consider other security solutions to be more promising.
• Quantum computing could eventually have the most severe impact on national security. A large-scale quantum computer capable of deploying Shor's algorithm on current encryption would have a devastating impact on virtually all internet security.

There is no clear overall world leader in quantum technology

• The United States, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada all have specific national initiatives to encourage quantum-related research.
• The United States and China dominate in overall spending and the most-important technology demonstrations, but Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union also lead in certain subfields.
• China is the world leader in quantum communication, and the United States is the world leader in quantum computing.

The highest-impact quantum technologies are still many years away

• Applications of quantum sensing could become commercially or militarily ready within the next few years.
• Limited commercial deployment of quantum communication technology already exists, but the most-useful military and commercial applications still lie many years away.
• There may be niche applications of quantum computers over the next few years, but all currently known applications are likely at least ten years away.