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This dissertation examines the risk of U.S.-China conflict based on a variety of theoretical works on conflict, applied to the U.S.-China relationship. Following this examination, and finding that the U.S.-China relationship does include elements of risk, the dissertation examines the implications of anti-access weapons on USAF sortie generation. The dissertation develops a simple sortie-generation model and air combat framework, using open-source data to estimate the forces that the USAF and the PLAAF can bring to bear, and predicts the results of air combat between two forces of dissimilar performance and quantity. Finally the dissertation examines options for increasing USAF performance in the face of antiaccess weapons, which includes a methodology to assess the effectiveness of strike employed to achieve air superiority.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Political Background — Prospects for U.S.-China Conflict
Chapter Three
Taiwan Operational Context
Chapter Four
Theater Access Challenges
Chapter Five
Sortie Generation and Implications
Chapter Six
Discussion of Alternatives
Chapter Seven
Conclusions
Appendix A
USAF Sortie Generation Model
Appendix B
Queuing Considerations
Appendix C
PLAAF/PLANAF Flanker Sortie Generation Calculations
Appendix D
Air Combat Effectiveness Framework
Appendix E
Effectiveness of Standoff Weapons Against PLA Airbase Infrastructure
Research conducted by
This document was submitted as a dissertation in May 2010 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Bart Bennett (Chair), Roger Cliff, and John E. Peters.
This publication is part of the RAND Corporation Dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.
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