Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security

An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach

Mustafa Oguz

ResearchPublished Dec 23, 2014

This dissertation analyzes several policy options that could help increase border security by reducing militant actions from safe havens in foreign territory. In particular, this dissertation focuses on a section of the Turkish-Iraqi border that is particularly difficult to protect. The main threat along the border is militant infiltrations and militant attacks on border security outposts. Policy options considered are relocating outposts, additional soldiers, unattended ground sensors and foreign border guards that provide early warning of militant movements. A simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects of these options. Infiltrators and border guards are assigned simple behavior rules. Outcomes are collected from their interaction on a virtual segment of the border. The results are analyzed to find the least costly way of increasing the percentage of militant infiltration attempts interdicted and decreasing soldier casualties in outposts.

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Oguz, Mustafa, Improving Turkish-Iraqi Border Security: An Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Approach. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2014. https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD341.html.
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This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2014 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Bart Bennett (Chair), Mahyar Amouzegar, and Veysi Isler.

This publication is part of the RAND dissertation series. Dissertations are written by Ph.D. candidates at the RAND School of Public Policy and supervised, reviewed, and approved by a RAND School faculty committee overseeing each dissertation. The RAND School is the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis.

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